“2006 poll: Dems gain 2, could lose 3”
The Democrats may lose another Senate seat? It’s rather early, but a WSJ poll (via Raw Story) shows that “Republicans vying for Senate seats in next year’s midterm elections have held their own during a difficult month for President Bush.”
- We have Bush’s negatives (see JPol’s “The Polls Are Bush’s Worst Nightmare“).
- We have polls showing that “64 percent of Americans say Iraq War not worth fighting 11/6” (via Buzzflash).
And this Zogby-commissioned poll (with a great map) tells us that we can’t expect ANY increases in the Senate out of the 2006 race?
Why in the hell NOT? What does the Democratic party need to do? (That is, besides waking up, and standing for something.)
The three we “could lose” are MD, MN, and NJ.
I can’t see the Democrats losing all 3 of those, unless something on the level of another 9/11 came along. Right now I’d sat the chances are better that we win all 3 than lose all 3, especially with Rove still to fall, the Plame trials coming next autumn, who knows what will happen with Cheney, the way the war is going, etc…
I’ve learned to worry.
Something about experience has led to that tendency.
In 2000, Maria Cantwell barely beat incumbent Slade Gorton — and it took weeks for the votes to trickle in from all over the state to give her a miniscule victory.
Everybody is painting Washington state blue. I say, not so quick. The GOP candidate — former chair of SAFECO — has untold millions at his disposal from his own money and from his rich friends. Maria is also well-financed. But a lot can happen in a campaign. Everyone thought that Christine Gregoire was a shoo-in against GOP Dino Rossi. And everyone dismissed the conservative-sourced polls that showed Rossi neck-and-neck with Gregoire. But I worried because I’d seen Rossi on TV and read newspaper articles about his campaign — he was different from the usual GOP scrap-off-the-heap candidate. He had savvy, smarts, and looks. Gregoire came across as an unappealing centrist. (We all know now how that ended, but she was incredibly lucky.)
I wonder if Bush’s current standing — if it’d been like it is now back in 2004 — would have had any effect. I rather doubt it.
We’re going to have to fight like hell in 2006 because I fear that Bush won’t get us over the hump.
I don’t think Cantwell’s seat is 100% safe, but of course her win in 2000 was close. She was trying to knock off an incumbent, who wasn’t a disaster like Santorum.
Cantwell has been raising her profile lately, and has been tapped to lead Senate Dems on energy issues. I’ve seen her on CSpan2 doing this. She’s gotten some press in WA for it, too.
Odds are that we gain seats in 2006. There are plenty of other polls (both generic congressional and state specific matchups) that show a different picture than the one from Zogby.
If anything, out of the most political pollsters our there, I’d trust Zogby the least.
Should read “most well-known political pollsters”
I find that hard to believe. Maybe we can lend those three states some support. Sounds like a ‘leaked” poll paid for by the right wing spin machine.
OT…Just found out Cindy sheehan is speaking here in san Diego tonight, only about twenty minutes from where I live. I will fill you all in tomorrow.
That is, besides waking up, and standing for something.
Answered your own question there …
That’s what the party needs to do. That’s all the party needs to do. Or at least, the first thing they need to do. Then they need to clearly articulate what they stand for, loudly enough that even the echo chamber can’t drown them out.
my guess is that we will beat DeWine and Santorum in OH and PA. We will hold Corzine and Sarbanes’s seats in NJ and MD.
We may very well lose Dayton’s seat in Minnesota, but we have a very good chance of winning Talent’s seat in Missouri and Frist’s seat in Tennessee.
The key is to win the seat in Nevada or win the seat in Virginia, and to hold Minnesota.
We will NOT loose Dayton’s seat in MN. Amy Klobuchar is one tough cookie and comes from a family of great Democratic leaders in this state.
Doing everything we can to elect her will be the opening act for getting rid of Coleman in a couple of years so that we can all put the grief of Wellstone’s death to rest.
Just watch what happens to DINO Mayor Kelly tomorrow in St. Paul and you’ll get a taste of how hoppin mad Minnesotan’s are these days!
Holds: MD, MN. (I can’t comment on NJ right now, because we don’t know who Corzine will tap as his successor.)
Wins: PA, RI, OH
Our incumbents will all win.
Losses: TN, MO, VA
If the issue of e-voting fraud/manipulation isn’t seriously addressed there’s a good chance the Democrats won’t do well at all.
What the hell FOR?
Frankly, I can’t think of reason other than Dems are not Republicans to vote for these losers… who would rather promote the IDEOLOGIES AND ISSUES of the GOP than those of their on base…
I am sick to death of the Democratic Leaderships Base Envy
Am I surprised that when this administration is tanking that the Dems can’t “Do Better”….no… certainly not when I see the prevailing wind is to once again shit own the base and move to the right… now it is just cloaked under the “frame” of “Partisanship”… partisanship my ass… it is just a fucking sell out.
When the fuck are Dems going to wake up to realize that we were sold out long ago. I just get angrier the more revelations that come about this administration… and remembering how our elected Democratic officials just rolled over and played dead and let this shit happen. Still no action from the Dems to support the Katrina victims.
Do you think that the GOP would have “let it go” the disenfrachisment of hundreds of thousand of their base voters… yet Dem could only find “ONE” Senator to speak up for the dienfranchised African American voters yet the same assholes went to the mat to confirm Roberts…some thing is very wrong with the Democratic Party.
I think that is great that Harry has decided to “DO SOMETHING” but it all comes with great caveats. Simon Rosenberg’s NDN funded one degree from the The Republican Marjority Fund is quick to comment and frame the blogosphere as
When I see these out right lies and utter horseshit …back by a 200 million dollar [Do Not] Think Tank (I have yet to see the list of the so called libruls who funded this right-wing cancer on the blogosphere)… then it was clear… we had not a hope in hell of winning back the House or Senate in 2006 unless their was a sudden popularity of candidates like Salazar and Casey… yeah…I think not.
So the only races it looks like we will win are those that the GOP candidate is so ridiculously evil ie Sanatorum that the “Boogey Man” campaign strategery will prevail.
The sky is falling? I think not. The frickin poll was conducted as early as October 25th.
The GOP is looking at three scenarios
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The polls show what we all know around here: we can’t just sit around hoping the Reps will self-destruct all on their own. There’s a real opportunity to take back both houses of Congress, IMO.
The key is to USE the unpopularity of Bush and the GOP. Tie every GOP candidate to Bush and Cheny. Relentlessly. Ask every GOP candidate whether they support the Bush regime. If they do, they lose the “moderates”; if not, they lose the right. Make the case that the GOP has betrayed the American people (it’s an easy and true case to make). Don’t let GOP candidates get away with posturing as “moderate”. Tag them as Bushies no matter what they claim.
Run as a real Dem in the tradition of FDR and Kennedy. Distance from Dem incumbents who erred in supporting Bush’s agenda. “I will not make that mistake. The choice is clear: do you wish further destruction, corruption, and cronyism on our nation? Then vote for my opponent and continue the failed Bush-Cheney-DeLay agenda that has already done such enormous harm to our credibility, our economy, our environment, and our liberty. Or give me the opportunity to bring the Bush disaster to a halt and help put America back on the right track. This election marks a true crisis point for our country: we can either sink further into craziness and corruption at the hands of Bush, Cheney, Rove, DeLay, Frist, and (my opponent), or we can break free from the Bush contagion and rebuild an America that holds true to the hopes and dreams that have defined us from our very beginnings. The choice is yours. History will judge each of us on the choice we make this year.”
Fantastic post, Dave!
What’s so frustrating tho, is that it wasn’t that hard. So why does it seem to be so hard for our so-called professional Dem pols to do much better? I don’t see that I said anything that wasn’t obvious to every Dem except the “leaders”.
I’ve been saying that the Dems have not stood for anything since Reagan was elected. They won’t regain their footing until this problem is resolved. How about, for starters, saying that we should bring the troops home.
Couldn’t agree more.
OT – Great sig line. Don’t forget to stop over at the Froggy Bottom Cafe open thread to get acquainted and collect your newcomer’s mojo.