Last week’s ABC/Washington Post poll was a nightmare for George W. Bush. One would think he had hit rock bottom, but the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll (subscription required, but if you get there fast it is free this week only) is even worse. One gets the feeling that this administration is coming apart at the seams, and is in a free fall from which there may be no escape. This was the fifth consecutive major poll showing Bush’s personal job approval rating falling to an all-time low below 40%. Making the matter worse a new FOX poll has Bush at 36% job approval, so that makes it six in a row.
Tonight on MSNBC’s Hardball, Laura O’Donnell indicated that both Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan had rebounded from lower numbers, but that is at least a debateable claim. According to Media Matters.org Reagan’s all-time low rating was 35%, in a Gallup Poll from January 28-31, 1983, and Clinton’s all-time low was 36% according to a Yank/Time/CNN Poll from May 26-27, 1993. Bush is currently at 35% according to CBS, 36% according to Pew and FOX. Moreover, all the signs suggest he has not bottomed out.
Details of the NBC/WSJ poll follow:
The new NBC/WSJ poll was conducted November 4-7, 2005 and consisted of 1003 adult interviews.It reports Bush’s job approval rating at 38%, an all-time low. 57% disapprove, an all-time high. In the wake of 9/11 Bush was at an88% approval and 7% disapproval rating. He has suffered a startling 100-point reversal.
As was the case with the ABC/Wapo poll, Bush is suffering on the issues. His job-approval ratings have hit an all-time low on every issue asked about in the poll:
- Only 34% approve of Bush’s handling of the economy. 60% disapprove. Bush’s numbers have reversed themselves by 64-points since his peak in December’01.
- Only 35% approve of Bush’s handling of foreign policy. 59% disapprove. Again this is a 92-point reversal versus December’01.
- Bush’s handling of the “war on terror,” once his strong point, has also tanked. More now disapprove (55%) than approve (39%). This is a 73-point reversal.
- The public no longer approves of Bush’s handling of the situation in Iraq. Only 32% approve, while double that amount, 64%, now disapprove.
- Only 27% hold a “positive” view versus 49% who have a negative view. This represents an 84-point reversal for Cheney.
- Intensity of the negative feelings is suggested by the 33% who are “very negative” versus 10% who are “very positive.
- A surprisingly high 63% know enough about Mr. Rove to have an opinion about him. Only 10% have a positive opinion of him (which translates to 16% of those who are familiar with him). 35% have a negative opinion (56% of those familiar with him).
- Roves also elicits an intensity of negativity with 25% holding a “very negative” opinion of him compared to only 3% holding a “very positive” opinion
- 66% know who Libby is. Only 6% have a positive opinion of him (which translates to 9% of those who are familiar with him). 39% have a negative opinion (59% of those familiar with him).
- Libby’s intensity of negative opinion is even greater than Rove’s with 27% holding a “very negative” opinion of him compared to only 1% holding a “very positive” opinion.
- Honesty:Only 20% rate Bush “very good.” 32% rate him on “very poor.”
- Appointing Qualified People:very good: 9%; “very poor”: 28%
- Protecting the Environment:Democrats: 49%; Republicans: 10%
- Dealing With Social Security:Democrats: 44%; Republicans: 24%
- Dealing With Health Care:Democrats: 43%; Republicans: 17%
- Dealing With Taxes:Democrats: 40%; Republicans: 30%
- Dealing With Education:Democrats: 39%; Republicans: 20%
- Dealing With the Economy:Democrats: 39%; Republicans: 25%
- Reducing the Federal Deficit:Democrats: 38%; Republicans: 19%
- Dealing With Foreign Policy:Democrats: 36%; Republicans: 27% (this is the first time the Democrats have held an edge on this question).
- Dealing with Energy Policy:Democrats: 35%; Republicans: 19%
- Controlling Government Spending:Democrats: 34%; Republicans: 22%
- Dealing With Abortion:Democrats: 33%; Republicans: 25%
- Dealing With Iraq:Democrats: 33%; Republicans: 30%
- Protecting America’s Interests on Trade Issues:Democrats: 31%; Republicans: 21%
- Promoting Ethics in Government:Democrats: 26%; Republicans: 22%
- Dealing With the War on Terrorism:Democrats: 26%; Republicans: 35% (a one-time 36-point Republican edge is now a 9-point Republican edge)
- Dealing With Immigration:Democrats: 25%; Republicans: 19%
- Ensuring a Strong National Defense:Democrats: 22%; Republicans: 43% (Republicans once held a 41-point edge here. It is now 21-points.
- Promoting Moral Values:Democrats: 18%; Republicans: 35% (a one-time 22-point Republican edge is now a 17-point edge)
It isn’t only George W. Bush who is on a slippery slope:
Dick Cheney:
Karl Rove:
Lewis “Scooter” Libby:
Bad news for Republicans in Congress also abounds. Prior to the 2004 election 43% preferred a Republican-controlled Congress, and 43% preferred a Democrat-controlled Congress — a 1-point Republican edge. Today 48% prefer the Democrats and 37% prefer the Republicans — an 11-point edge for the Democrats, and a 12-point reversal in the past year.
George W. Bush’s Personal Qualities:
58% feel Congress should immediately enact price caps on the cost of gasoline at the pump.
The Parties on Issues (Who Would do a Better Job?):
Clearly the Democrats have some work to do before they can capitalize fully on the problems of President Bush and the Republicans. 36% feel the Republicans do not have a clear message/vision for the future. 45% feel that way about the Democrats. 18% feel the Republicans have a clear message/vision for the future. Only 11% feel that way about the Democrats.
An incredible 79% think the leaking of Valerie Wilson Plames CIA identity and the indictment of Libby “is a serious matter.”
An equally incredible 78% believe “others in the Bush administration may have acted illegally as well.”
57% feel President Bush “deliberately misled people to make the case for war.”
58% feel the president “has not given good reasons” for why we must keep troops in Iraq.
It would be hard to categorize the current situation for the White House as anything but a meltdown. The polls do not suggest they bottom has been reached.