If you aren’t signed up to participate in Zogby’s online polls, you might want to try it. It’s worth it if for nothing else than to see how questions are worded and the conclusions reached by prior polls. When you complete a poll, they let you read results from a prior survey or you get a copy of their news letter. I’m going to quote from the newsletter and provide my own thoughts in between. I’ll try to do the box thing but I’m technically challenged and may resort to ” “
A Zogby America poll of 854 likely voters conducted October 29 through
November 2 found the President at his all-time low, with a 39% job approval
rating. Making this number sting somewhat is the fact that only 76% of
Republicans give the President passing marks, and only one-in-four rate his
performance “excellent.” Among politically independent voters–a group no
politician can take for granted–just 28% rate the President’s job
performance favorably.
So that looks good, but then there’s even more..below the fold of course.
So, how bad is the President’s predicament? Bad, certainly–it’s much easier
to pass an agenda when you’re flying high. And, as Zogby International CEO
John Zogby noted recently, the public’s faith is “kind of like virginity–it is
hard to get back.”
But not impossible.
But not impossible. He goes on to cite Reagan and Clinton as having come back from low poll numbers and suggests Bush’s numbers could change as well.
The task ahead for a Presidency that has strayed off-course is not easy, nor is it simple. But it is not
impossible, nor is it even improbable. President Bush’s predecessors have all come to this crossroads.
Those that did so early in their first terms–Reagan and Clinton–turned fortune around. Those that saw
their approval ratings decline later in their terms–Bush Sr. and Carter–never recovered.
President Bush has the same opportunity afforded Reagan and Clinton, plus none of the pressures of
winning a second term–that, he has already done. But to get there from here, he first has a few fires to
put out.
A few fires indeed. The job situation, the price of gas, the lack of response to Katrina, a disenchanted base and oh yes, the war.
However goes the war will go this presidency.
Maybe, but to me there’s another factor at work, a factor somewhat revealed in more recent polls that show Bush’s numbers climbing back a little bit on the back of better economic numbers, people out spending on Christmas, and what i think is a key factor; slightly lower gas prices. I think people tend to vote their pocketbook. It’s all about ME don’t you know? Gas prices are a major topic of concern and discussion. If gas stays ‘down’ which is truly a relative situation (still higher than last year but lower then two months ago)then Bush’s poor numbers may rebound some more.
But there’s a test coming soon. People are paying for their winter home heating fuel now. All those bills are going up by a hefty 15-30%. There are already news stories on TV news about how tough it is going to be. So we can watch the polls and see if there is an effect. Don’t get me wrong, the war is a huge issue but it’s clear they are going to remove troops early next year, maybe a third of those there, declare they have a ‘plan’ and we have to give the ‘plan’ time and so on.
But what if gas prices stay above $2.00/gl and inch back up towards $3.00? What if there is an upsurge in violence after the ‘election’? So here’s the ironic point. What if it’s the price of oil that does Bush in? Wouldn’t that be the height of irony? We shall see.
http://www.zogby.com/Nov-zra.pdf