Much of the media is abuzz these days with the news that George W. Bush’s job approval ratings are on the rebound after a long and seemingly irreversible downward trend.
With CNN’s Bill Schneider proclaiming that “All the national polls show the president’s approval rating going up over the past month,” ABC News headlining “Bush’s Approval Ratings Climb,” and MSNBC and The Washington Post declaring “Bush’s Support Jumps After a Long Decline,” one might be excused for believing that those numbers are indeed on the rise.
Perhaps so, but… then again, perhaps not…
CNN’s “senior political analyst” and poll analyzer, Bill Schneider, began the current chatter about Bush’s poll resurgence with a report, complete with graphics, that aired on December 16th. As mentioned above, Schneider claimed that “All the national polls show the president’s approval rating going up over the past month,” backing up his contention with graphics that indicated that:
- CNN/USA Today/Gallup, five-point increase
- CBS News/New York Times, five-point increase
- Associated Press/Ipsos, five-point increase
- Pew Research, two-point increase
- NBC/Wall Street Journal, one-point increase
David Brock’s Media Matters pointed out that
…Schneider’s statement ignored a December 13 Zogby International poll showing a three-point decline for Bush. In addition, most of the polls listed on screen during Schneider’s report received coverage on CNN news and talk shows within 48 hours of their release, while the Zogby poll has thus far received no mention on any CNN programs.
…The Zogby poll, released prior to the NBC/Journal poll but after the other polls on CNN’s list, was the only one to show a decline in Bush’s approval rating. The network featured numerous instances of coverage for three of the five polls listed between December 1 and December 15.
The first poll showing a boost in Bush’s approval rating came on December 8, released by CBS News and The New York Times. It showed a five-point increase for Bush compared to the same poll from the previous month. On the day that poll was released, five CNN programs — American Morning, Live From, Your World Today, The Situation Room and Lou Dobbs Tonight — mentioned the poll. The poll received additional mention on the December 12 edition of American Morning.
But it was worse than that. Schneider pointed out that the CNN/USA Today poll had given Bush a 5-point boost, and it had. The poll conducted from November 17 – 20, 2005 had Bush at 38% job approval, and the December 5-8 poll had Bush at 43% — a 5-point spike, just as Schneider said. The only problem is by the time Schneider’s “analysis” aired, a new CNN/USA Today poll had come out, and that one, conducted December 9-11, 2005 had Bush’s numbers heading back down again, to 42% — a decline of one point. Another poll just out shows the decline continuing (more on that below).
It is worth noting that Bill Schneider is a Resident Scholar at The American Enterprise Institute, a conservative Think Tank closely associated with strong support for the Bush administration and its policies. CNN, to my knowledge, has never informed its viewers of that association.
The other poll driving the chatter about a Bush resurgence is the new ABC News/Washington Post poll showing Bush’s job approval ratings up by a solid 8 points over roughly a 6-week period. That is impressive, but two CNN/USA Today polls conducted on nearly identical dates show Bush’s approval ratings to be flat:
ABC News/Washington Post:
- October 30-November 2, 2005: 39% job approval
- December 15-18, 2005: 47% job approval
8-Point Increase
CNN/USA Today:
- October 28-30, 2005: 41%
- December 16-18, 2005: 41% job approval
Flat
So are Bush’s numbers on the uptick or not? I don’t know, but neither does Bill Schneider, and neither does CNN, and neither does the Washington Post or any of the rest of the media, contrary to their commentary or blaring headlines.
One thing is clear though, and the media is largely silent on this point. Bush’s job approval ratings, measured over time, have been trending dramatically downward in virtually every national poll since peaking in the high 80’s and low 90’s in the aftermath of September 11, 2001. Every uptick has been followed by a greater downtick. An Ipsos-Reid graph demostrates the trend with crystal clarity:
The bottom line is that the president’s numbers may be up, or they may be down, or perhaps they are flat, but if yesterday is any clue to tomorrow, don’t count on an uptick, if there is one, continuing much longer.