One week left before the federal election on Monday January 23rd, and the Conservatives (Tories) lead by Stephen Harper are leading the governing Liberals by more than 12% in the national polls, heading for a minority government. The Tories could become the government of Canada if propped up by the separatist Bloc party, which derives its strength from the province of Quebec, which is mostly Francophone. The Liberals and the left wing NDP party together do not seem positioned to win enough seats for the Liberals to retain their minority control government. In the past session, these two parties just managed to run things when they cooperated – this time around, the NDP seems set to lose its pivotal power to control the destiny of the minority government.
What will a Tory victory mean for Canada, and for the USA?
My guesses:
* Bush will find Harper a very friendly neighbor indeed; one who will carefully consider committing Canada to any more foreign adventures Bush might wish to embark upon (Iran, Syria). Probabilities are much higher that Canadian troops will be fighting such future wars alongside Americans.
* Harper will sign on as a fully fledged member of Bush’s star wars project.
* Harper will back any further free trade initiatives which Bush might launch.
* Canada will be weakened as a federal state, with Harper granting to the provinces much greater powers regarding taxation, sharing in the federal government tax receipts, and power over areas previously run by the federal government.
* Harper will follow in Brian Mulroney’s footsteps (he was a former Prime Minister of Canada who swept to power with the support of the French vote in Quebec), and seek to attract more seats in Quebec by granting ever greater powers to Quebec.
* Many social programs now in existence will be reviewed when the Tory government sets its priorities, and pro-big business policies (including tax cuts) will edge ahead of many such programs in the Tory priorities list.
* The federal government will be slashed, with large numbers laid off as powers are shifted to the provinces.
* Overall, a lurch to the right in social and economic areas.
* A rise in intolerance, and clashes with many groups within Canada as the Tory government implements its agenda, will take place.
Many unforeseen events will take place once the stealth policies of the new government are implemented, many in the first six months. Expect a dramatic rise in conflict within Canada by August, with another election later this year a distinct possibility, triggered by the Bloc withholding its support for the Tories when the Bloc suddenly realizes that it’s hold over Quebec is imperilled by the Tory bid to win more seats in that province so as to cement its hold as governing party of Canada.