As Jimmy Cliff said, “The Harder They Come, The Harder They Fall”. That was true for Newt Gingrich, and it appears to be true of Tom DeLay.

And there is plenty of irony to go around. DeLay’s most heavy-handed action was his aggressive redistricing plan, wherein he orchestrated a redrawing of the Texas legistative districts (which is only supposed to be done every ten years, following the census). He is now under indictment for the way in which he financed that program. But, he also is more vulnerable as an incumbent because he graciously gave up a good chunk of his Republican voters to neighboring districts.

He thought he was safe enough to be able to afford this generosity. But a recent Houston Chronicle poll paints a different picture.

The negative coverage of lobbyist Jack Abramoff — and his ties to DeLay and his aides — have clearly had a negative effect on the Texan’s image in the eyes of voters, according to the survey, which was commissioned by the Houston Chronicle. Just 28 percent of those tested had either a “very” or “somewhat” favorable opinion of DeLay, while 60 percent had a “very” or “somewhat” unfavorable opinion.

Even more telling:

Perhaps most damning for DeLay is the finding that 47 percent said he should “withdraw as a candidate” for the 22nd district; 40 percent of respondents rejected that notion. That response is all the more troublesome when one considers the poll’s sample, which included 42 percent self-identifying Republicans compared to 27 percent Democrats and 23 percent independents

And the irony grows richer when you realize that his opponent, Nick Lampson, was ousted from a neighboring seat after DeLay successfully filled it with a bunch of his old voters. Lampson promptly move into DeLay’s new district and is now leading him in the polls:

Former Rep. Nick Lampson (D) led DeLay 30 percent to 22 percent in a hypothetical general election matchup. Former Republican Rep. Steve Stockman, who is running as an independent, received 11 percent. When voters leaning toward one of the candidates are pushed to make a decision, Lampson received 32 percent, DeLay 25 percent and Stockman 14 percent.

DeLay knows he is in trouble which may explain his decision to put himself in the appropriations seat that was abandoned by the recently indicted Randy “Duke” Cunningham. Perhaps, he reasons, the people of Sugarland will overlook his ethical shortcomings if they know he can bring home the pork. But, this is a hail mary pass. DeLay is not going to be reelected, and most of his caucus in Congress hopes he is not reelected.

As for Lampson, he is being cautiously optimistic:

“The numbers I saw were encouraging,” Lampson said. “They show that the people of this district want a representative who will make headlines for the right reasons, like improving homeland security, fiscal discipline and education.

“There is a long time between now and Election Day, and we’re going to continue working hard for every vote.”

And, even though the polls show that DeLay is still favored to win his primary, his opponents are encouraged by the polls, too.

The three candidates challenging DeLay are former schoolteacher Pat Baig and lawyers Tom Campbell and Michael Fjetland, who is making his fourth run against DeLay.

“Half the people who voted for him last time are looking for an alternative,” Campbell said. “Your poll shows that he can be beaten without the need for a runoff in a primary and that he is unelectable in the general election.”

Campbell, who announced his candidacy the last week of December, said he views the results optimistically, because he was gone from an “unknown” to capturing voter recognition and support in a matter of weeks.

“That speaks to people’s desire in finding a viable alternative,” he said of the majority Republican district.

Fjetland’s campaign feels largely the same, saying the poll reflects “what we have found to be reality on the ground.

“We see our grass-roots support and name recognition growing at an increasing rate,” his spokeswoman Teresa VanDeusen said.

“Voters are ready for a change.”

With 47% of his constituents saying that DeLay should drop out, and with his Congressional colleagues scrambling to distance themselves from him, and with three people challenging him in a primary, and with a Democrat leading in the polls, I’d say it is a safe bet that DeLay is serving his last year in Congress.

It’s only a matter of time before he drops out of the race. And, if he cares at all about his party, he will drop out soon and endorse one of his primary rivals. They need the help.

Although the poll indicates slippage in DeLay’s support among likely primary voters, it is not benefiting his Republican opponents, who together poll less than 10 percent, with the rest undecided.

Goodbye, Bugman. We hardly knew ye.