I really did not want to write today.
Jerome a Paris writes: Why bother? When will it end?
That is my mood: We are in dark days. Not the worst surely, but that is the whole problem: Worse days are coming, and we know it. Meanwhile today just drags along.
Late last week the US staged a missile and air attack on one of its own allies. This was, perhaps, a minor event, but it was shocking for what it said about American behavior. It was not a mistake. The US simply does not believe it needs so much as a by-your-leave to level any village, anywhere in the world, in pursuit of “terrorists.” The villagers themselves were surprised to discover they were high-level Al Qaeda operatives. But the US got its body-count, which, seemingly, was the whole point.
A year ago we used to joke that–to fight terrorism–Bush would bomb Paris. Maybe he won’t, really, but if so it is because years ago DeGaulle built the Force de Frappe, and pulled it out of NATO. Sadly, he understood that someday France would need its own, independent, deterent.
Meanwhile, how bad was this really for the Pakistani government? That it was a grotesque humiliation is clear. But does it really advance the day when the government falls to Muslim extremists? Hard to say from this side of two oceans, but it certainly doesn’t delay it. This week bin Laden comes up with a new speech. Well, really, how could he miss such an opportunity? He couldn’t and he hasn’t.
And maybe Bush really figures that his only hope to avoid impeachment is to provoke a new terror attack on the US and revive the “united-we-stand” days of 9/11. Will Americans really fall for such a transparent ploy? It would seem a truly desperate tactic. Yet, on present evidence Americans will fall for anything.
And why not? For this whole thing, all of it, is really about one thing, and one thing only. Indeed the whole of local, national, and international politics can be reduced to a single concept–one word:
Oil.
I didn’t really want to write about this either, but today it is time. I don’t have anything new to say–it is an old subject. In fact it is so old that some 35 years ago it was part of my high-school curriculum. There would even have been an exam question on it: How much oil is left in the world?
Seventy years.
Of course, that answer was approximate: Since that time more oil was discovered, but also since that time, the rate of usage grew faster than predicted. The effects cancel out, and today there are some 35 years left.
Worse, this past year the Saudis promised to increase production to stabilize prices, but for the first time in two decades they have not done so. The geopolitical and the geological indicators agree: They have not because they cannot. World oil production has peaked. It will never be greater than it is right now.
About the time I was graduating high school, the United States entered the time of choice: Whether to invest in a new energy infrastructure to secure its future, or to seal its fate.
It did not invest.
Two political oil-crises in the 1970’s showed what was at stake, and for a few years the US toyed with the idea of revamping its energy economy. But Carter was rejected at the polls, and the new government abandoned the new economy. A deal was worked to get the oil flowing, and it would be oil, and only oil, until the end. This was called “Morning in America.”
This was the death decision. It was not the final moment, when nothing further can be done–indeed we have not even yet reached the final moment, in theory. But it was the last good opportunity: The choice could only get progressively harder, and the future possibilities less and less pleasant.
In 1980 Americans went to the polls and voted to destroy their country.
To this day I cannot tell you why they did it. The obvious reasons have been rehashed on this blog more than once. But the real reasons?
How bad is it? Our dependence on oil has actually increased since oil-crisis days: It now takes 10 calories of oil to grow one calorie of corn. This means that not only is our industry and transportation dependent upon oil, but also our food.
There is more to be said, and you can find it by googling “Peak Oil” and “Mass Die-off.” The summary is that no combination of conservation and energy alternatives can replace our current oil use. Our civilization will cease to exist. Will humans still exist? Optimists will be busy learning about organic gardening. But this, and other survival questions I leave for another day.
Today I write about the plan, for there is one. Not to survive–the death choice stands–but to buy time. The plan dictates national and international politics. It is the roadmap and the justification for the cartelized state. The plan is simplicity itself. The US is, by military means, to secure all of the world’s oil reserves needed to keep oil flowing to itself. By this means the US makes sure to be the last civilization standing. After that? Well, there is no after that.
Arguably, mere control of the oil market was, and would have been, sufficient. Iraqi oil was to come under US control–the whole point being that Saddam Hussein could not be trusted–to keep the flow of oil maintained in the near-term. In the mid-term the oil countries of Africa were to be brought into the US orbit, the ‘Stans of the Caspian Sea region, and of course, Venezuela. (This last is a small point, though a very sore one.)
But defeat in Iraq has changed all of that: Iraqi oil remains off line and the oil market is short; perhaps worse, having foolishly and predictably destroyed its army in Iraq, the US can no longer be sure of Africa, nor the ‘Stans, nor Venezuela. Having committed itself to a policy of pure force, the force to hold these countries is not there.
Yet defeat in Iraq is not defeat in the plan, just a setback requiring a revision. The militarization of the US now needs to be brought forward on the timeline (this would have happened anyway): A greatly expanded army is now needed to bring back those countries that are breaking away. Yes, all of the countries I have mentioned–and more–will have to be occupied by main force. Permanently.
It is crazy: It cannot work.
What else is new?
Into this we throw Iran. Will the US really attack this year? It is hard to believe, but good sense has never stopped Bush before. To bridge the gap until the Army can be rebuilt, an assault with “tactical” nuclear weapons against a major oil-producer may be just the dramatic display of force Bush feels he needs to demonstrate his resolve.
American strategy is now based on the logic of two-year-old boys: If he throws a big enough tantrum, certainly the world will just quiver and seek his pardon.
Actually, it is more likely that Iran will cut the strait of Homuz and send the American economy straight to the bottom.
Or not even that: The Chinese might want the strait kept open. Well, there is an easy deal they can cut: Iran leaves the strait open in exchange for some . . . interesting . . . weaponry.
In addition, consider that the Chinese announced last summer that they were getting out from under the dollar. I assume they were well started before they made the announcement. How well along are they? Maybe they can make a second promise: They can dump their remaining holdings and send the dollar into the dumpster. The American empire will be over.
At this point we can see that everything really depends on the Chinese. That they want peace is obvious. That they are preparing for war may be less obvious, but certainly they have been considering that possibility all along.
What they will do, they aren’t saying.