by Larry C. Johnson (bio below)
If ifs and buts were candy and nuts it would be Christmas everyday.” This old saying seems appropriate in light of Bin Laden’s latest message to the world. If Bin Laden’s desires equaled actual capabilities then we would face daily attacks by Al Qaeda operatives. Fortunately, Al Qaeda’s actual ability to hit us has been significantly degraded. Despite carrying out spectacular attacks in Spain (March 2004) and England (July 2005), Al Qaeda has not been able to sustain offensive operations in either country, not to mention the United States. We can hinder and even destroy their ability to attack us, but we must make it a priority. Unfortunately, despite tough talk from the White House, we have made finding Bin Laden a low priority. Left unmolested Bin Laden can hurt us and hurt us bad.
So, why is Bin Laden speaking now? He has suffered some recent setbacks. He is certainly reacting to the missile strikes last week in Pakistan that apparently killed some Al Qaeda operatives. Bin Laden is letting his followers and the world know that he is alive and ready to fight to the death. He also is reminding us that he takes the longterm view. The offer of a truce is not a sign of weakness, rather it is a gesture to the Muslim world intended to portray Bin Laden as a man of reason and honor who is intent on being faithful to God’s commandments. When he references the 10 year war against the Soviets and the perseverance of the mujahideen and their ultimate victory, this is not mere hyperbole. It is his war plan for success.
So, why is Bin Laden still walking around free and kicking? Why has the United States failed to capture him?
For starters, no one is in charge of this effort. There are lots of people working on it, but there is no one person responsible on a day-to-day basis. If you ask the CIA Chief in Pakistan, he’ll tell you he is in charge of the mission. If you ask the CIA Chief in Afghanistan, you will get a similar answer. If you ask General Brown at SOCOM he will tell you that he has the mission. And, if you ask the folks at CENTCOM and at JSOC you will get similar responses. Let’s not forget Ambassador Hank Crumpton, the Coordinator for Counter Terrorism. Lots of people working on the issue, but no one actually in charge.
Second, interagency cooperation is still spotty. For example, the Department of Defense has a prioritized list of Al Qaeda personnel they are hunting and the CIA has a different list. DOD and CIA still have not agreed on who in the Al Qaeda hierarchy should be targeted first. I am told that there is pretty good cooperation between CIA and FBI at the worker bee level in Afghanistan, but that this cooperation is personality dependent and breaks down as you move up the food chain.
Third, not all US intelligence and law enforcement resources are being devoted to the effort. DEA, for example, has some remarkable intelligence capabilities. They also have an incredible informant network and face significant challenges in Afghanistan, which has become the largest heroin exporter in the world. Drug sales can fund terrorist operations. Yet, DEA is not part of the CIA/DOD effort to find, capture, or kill Bin Laden.
Finally, the bureaucratic walls that separated the law enforcement and intelligence communities prior to 9-11 are back up and higher than ever. I was given this bad news two weeks ago by an old friend who has worked at the FBI, the CIA, and the National Security Council during the last three years. He said, “the the window of cooperation that opened in the immediate aftermath of 9-11 has been slammed shut.” Apparently we have learned nothing from the debacle of 9-11.
The only way to break through the log jam of bureaucratic politics and stovepiping is for the President or Vice President to make forging interagency cooperation a priority. President Bush and Vice President Cheney talk a good game, but they are not paying attention to the details. Fixing this mess requires their personal involvement on a daily basis. If they fail to act and the old status quo, which has reemerged with a vengeance, remains in place then Bin Laden will eventually succeed. With patience and planning he will breach our security and will kill thousands of Americans. Bin Laden speaks clearly on this point:
As for us, we do not have anything to lose. The swimmer in the sea does not fear rain. You have occupied our land, defiled our honour, violated our dignity, shed our blood, ransacked our money, demolished our houses, rendered us homeless, and tampered with our security. We will treat you in the same way.
I do not want to hear anymore the nonsensical excuse, “who could have known”? from the Administration . Let there be no doubt, we have been warned.
……………………………………………………..
Larry C. Johnson is CEO and co-founder of BERG Associates, LLC, an international business-consulting firm that helps corporations and governments manage threats posed by terrorism and money laundering. Mr. Johnson, who worked previously with the Central Intelligence Agency and U.S. State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism (as a Deputy Director), is a recognized expert in the fields of terrorism, aviation security, crisis and risk management. Mr. Johnson has analyzed terrorist incidents for a variety of media including the Jim Lehrer News Hour, National Public Radio, ABC’s Nightline, NBC’s Today Show, the New York Times, CNN, Fox News, and the BBC. Mr. Johnson has authored several articles for publications, including Security Management Magazine, the New York Times, and The Los Angeles Times. He has lectured on terrorism and aviation security around the world. Further bio details.
Personal Blog: No Quarter || Bio
Recommended Book List || More BoomanTribune Posts
Didn’t GW himself say, oh maybe 6-8 months ago, that he didn’t know where Bin Laden was, and was not that concerned about him, or words to that effect?? Now, I’m sure this latest tape will be used to provide further justification for NSA’s spying program!?
Osama was merely a pretext for getting our asses into Iraq.
And I may be wrong, but I also believe that the tape was a phony. Look, I have no proof at all. This is not tinfoilery. But it is mighty suspicious, at least, to me. I need more corroborative proof.
For the sake of conversation I will say Osama was on the tape, but frankly, I have to become a believer.
I’ll go you one better.
Cheney was just recently talking with King Abdallah of Saudi Arabia.
It seems very coincidental to me that suddenly, out of the blue, here comes Saudi Arabian Osama bin Laden with a new tape, just when Bush’s little adventure in military bungling was starting to take some real heat.
There is just something about this latest from Osama that seems so out of kilter, like too coincidental.
IMO, the US does not want to capture Bin Laden, rather just bomb the hell out of everyone…
because he’s bin forgotten. Long time now.
Ask the Commander-in-chief who did say, ” So I don’t know where he is. You know, I don’t spend that much time on him…And, again I don’t know where he is. I – I’ll repeat what I said. I truly am not that concerned about him” [3/13/02]
(hat tip Thinkprogress with link to Whitehouse Press Conference transcript release)
http://thinkprogress.org/2006/01/19/flashback-bush-not-concerned-about-bin-laden
.
to get a personal message out while covering all traces of the taped location and OBL’s hide-out. This statement in diary certainly is not true, as it’s impossible from logistics involved:
By Peter Bergen
Finding bin Laden remains of utmost importance for three reasons:
Statements from bin Laden and, to some degree, al-Zawahiri have always been the most reliable guide to the future actions of jihadist movements around the world–and this has remained the case even while both men have been on the run.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."▼▼▼ READ MY DIARY ▼
Bin Laden is the least of the worlds worries. Worry about Bush and his friends.
I Do. (worry about Bush and Friends) I think Bin Laden would love to cause us more grief if he can. I worry about that too.
Bin Laden probably had nothing to do with 911. He’s an American invention…he takes credit for everything because he’s been identified as the leader of the non-existent mythical Al Queda.
The people responsible for 911 are probably to tied in with US interests for the U.S. to identify. It might cause some problems. So they invent Al Queda.
Don’t worry about Bin Laden, if they can’t find him, how’s he gonna find you?
but also a couple of inaccuracies.
Osama bin Laden is an old CIA asset, recruited for the purpose of recruiting others back in the day when US and Russia were engaged in a proxy war in Afghanistan.
Those that Agent bin Laden recruited form the historical basis of “Al Qaeda.”
However, today Washington’s warlords use both the persona of Agent bin Laden and the term “Al Qaeda” to signify anyone who opposes US policies.
Well, there are plenty of people around the world who oppose US policies, and thus those who say that the war on terror cannot be won because Al Qaeda is an ideology are in a sense, correct.
The war on terror cannot be won because “Al Qaeda” is opposed to the terror which US continues to rain down on various parts of the world.
It is possible that Agent bin Laden has been eliminated for strategic reasons, he would, after all, be privy to quite a bit of information that could be embarrassing to the US or its allies, and it is also possible that he is merely on sabbatical, in some undisclosed location.
There are, we must remember, no living “ex-CIA”personnel. 🙂
Whatever the current status of Osama bin Laden the human being, Osama bin Laden the persona is simply an Emanuel Goldstein, a symbol.
You will notice that in today’s tape, they do not even bother to have the speaker use flowery classical Arabic or Koranic references.
It is a classic example of Washington propaganda imitating tongue-in-cheek blogrant
The detainees, victims of rendition, plea-bargained and pursued all have the same misfortune to know much more from the past than any crime they’re accused of. It genuinely looks more like a witness elimination program than it does a GWoT.
You have to see Craig Murray on Democracy Now! from yesterday. It seems no one has commented on this. THey are all too busy interpreting inaccurately the news from the MSM.
Craig Murray is a witness to how Britain and the US conspired to torture people and how he was blackballed by the Brits.
Its a reall lesson from an eyewitness on world politics, western style.
Living in Buddhist country I find a majority of people totally hate Bush and everything he does. More worryingly and something my compatriots back home should be aware of bin Laden is not only seen as not worse than Bush he is seen as a David standing up to Bush’s Goliath. Bush has really damaged the US interest to the point of almost no return. Even when discussing 9/11 there is a common view of “well what did you expect with what you americans have done to so many innocent foreigners over the years?” I fully expect the next 9/11 event that occurs in the US to result in a popular feeling around the world of “you got what you deserved” although it ould so easily even be “celebrated”. People back home have to realize the extent to which we are now hated. Oh and remember this is in a country that is neither Muslim nor Arab.
Why would Bush want to capture Bin Laden? His tapes come in so handy for Georgie. Poll numbers dropping? Scare people. Pushing through a radical Alito? Scare people. People are starting to notice what a liar you are? Scare ’em. Fear is the great mind-killer.
Bin Laden is Bush’s boogeyman. He’s free because it suits Bush’s purposes to have him free.
Does anyone really believe that capturing or killing bin Laden would make further attacks one iota less likely than they already are?
Funny how his truce offer also puts anyone calling for a withdrawal from Iraq on his side now . . .
I don’t.
Bin Laden is bullshit.
I agree completely with SusanD immediately above. bin Laden is so much more useful to the Bush gang alive and on the loose than he would be dead or captive that the idea Bush and the neocon cabal would want to catch him borders on the absurd.
I think there just might be hope for seeing the Easter Bunny this year.
How come bin Laden didn’t take credit for the London Tubes but instead let someone else finally take credit…in October?
We wouldn’t want to distract them from what they weren’t able to prevent last time, do we?
Answering the question of how more than one of the expolsions showed clear evidence of originating below the floor of the car would be a good start.
Betcha that doesn’t get included in the official version.
Thanks for that, DF
would be disturbing to Americans and could erode support for the “war on terror.”
The ones behind the scenes who know the truth are laughing at us for how stupid we are as a gullible society. I know they are. I can see it in their words and the way they evolve the legends.
of all the various pronouncements and statements and other productions are due to ineptness, desire to appeal to the most unsophisticated segments of the populace, or as you say, just plain having fun with it all.
Considering how unquestioningly the basic “plot,” even the memes and slogans have been taken up and to heart by even the most sophisticated, well-read, and otherwise intelligent minds, maybe you are right…
It is a cartoon. 911 has become a cartoon.
For what it’s worth, here are a few points from the one of the theories I’ve been able to put together to understand it all. This all just my guess from watching and reading and it’s all nondangerous becuase I seem to draw little interest from netfolks.
The intel agencies have always used small groups worldwide to carry out desired unsavory projects. Along the way, religious extremists proved believable and productive. Besides this manipulation, all of those agencies have been inside the major media, entertainment and other industries. Developing as a sort of hybrid lobbyist/org-crime network forces were joined at times with similar groups globally both ind. and govt sponsored. Defense industries in private sector were prime for getting contracts and returning dirty favors. As time goes on, it moves to the high tech software and telecom fields.
Along the way, divergences of ideology occur and subgroups form promoting different agendas. Revolving door policies allow ease of movement and cover of activities for decades. These folks control the action on both the elected office and private industry sides. To facilitate communication secretly in such a public way, and for fun, parallels run in parts of the entertainment world….fictional characters, storylines, movies, etc…but actually, all of the segments in business/society where they exist are interconnected.
So, as these ideological subgroups control covert, unapproved, more of private enterprise projects, the dynamics of so much deception for so many reasons really blurs the identities. That’s used to an advantage by them and it can still be seen by the public as the genuine extremist threat it started out as. When more than one ideology is competing for control, everything can get out of control. Say maybe, the FBI is tracking a known group but unaware it’s backed by another agency and simultaneously subverted by another subgroup working on their own. Add in the diversity and duplicity of recent PMCs and it’s a fucking free-for-all. Something fucks up or succeeds and everyone goes into damage control, which is to blame the original extremist group. The contradictions and incompetence excuses only go so far, for so long, before it becomes obviously incredulous.
This is all supported in part by the MSM and ideological think tanks which write fiction to support whatever facts are required to make the real-life screenplay work.
The caricature appearance of late is probably due to the purging of some of the best career folks in the agencies, by BushCo, and the inexperience of the ones trying to run the damage control.
The terrorism is manufactured according to the rules set by the ones in power and if those are inept or overreaching ideologues, then we are all put in greater danger.
I found it really interesting in 2002-2003-2004 that Powell and others would speak carefully about al Qaeda as a very real and dangerous threat but not as religious zealots. Other professionals who took this attitude were more credible and it could be discerned that the characteristics were identifiable.
So, for the most part, the cartoonishness is probably inexperience trying to overcompensate. Of course, it could always be another deliberate slap in the face.
It jumped out at me when I was channel surfing and ran across a commercial for either matchmaking or phone chat line services. The unnatural adjectives/phrases that are choices of a person saying that which is thought to be what others want to hear, is how obl’s speech sounds.
Imagine having the software to search all fairly recent articles/op-eds/discussion forums and pulling out the most popular phrases that match keywords or key-thoughts and assembling them into a speech.
Datamining returns based on ratings and recent opinion polls would be search results that most reflect what the public is saying and, in theory, would be the best chance to be accepted.
The trouble is, artificial intelligence can use logic to choose and assemble, but it doesn’t have the ability to perceive based on emotion. That changes everything and that would be a reason for such a stark disconnect in the thoughts expressed in the speech.
As I see it, this last message from nr. One himself, is first of all, to keep the images of him alive since nr. Two Ayman al-Zawahri has been doing most of the talking since the demise of the al-Qaeda organization in 2001-2002. This message is solely for the “home front” so to speak. What is worth noting is that Osama bin Laden has disappeared from the screen since ousted from Afghanistan? It could mean that his health is deteriorating. His voice on the tapes seemed weak but controlled.
The second message that can be derived from this message is twofold, partly intended for the home front and partly intended for the “enemy audience”. The warning is meant to boost his followers in the Middle-East and more specifically in Iraq, because that is where al-Qaeda sees a victory in the future, according to Zawahris latest video. The message for the “enemy audience” in the US and the West is that “we’re still here and expect something from us in the future”.
The third message to read out of this has to do with his offer of truce and it is closely connected to the last paragraph above, and is basically this:” We are offering you a truce, but not because we are weak but we are doing this from a strong position (we are about to attack you, you’d better hurry to think it over).
I suspect this is a message from a weakened foe, but not beaten. Most of their hopes are tied to what is going on in Iraq and much of that is out of their hands. Their role is more of a moral one than an actual player on the ground. Most of the planning is done by the Zarqawi groups, thus decentralized as was the Madrid and London bombings.
.
WANTED
DEAD OR ALIVE!
The most important one he missed … the jerk!
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."▼▼▼ READ MY DIARY ▼
There was always the real chance that decapitating Al Qaeda of its charismatic leadership might have lead to its withering away. But that was not given priority by Bush.
.
By Andrew Buncombe
WASHINGTON 16 April 2004 — European leaders flatly rejected yesterday the “truce” offered by Osama bin Laden, al-Qa’ida’s leader, in exchange for the withdrawal of their countries’ troops from Iraq.
The message came as many nations were under intense pressure over their support for the occupation of Iraq. The execution of an Italian private security contractor by Iraqi insurgents and the kidnapping of Japanese civilians has added to an already vociferous debate in those, and other, countries about the future of their forces in Iraq.
The statement by the al-Qa’ida leader was an apparent attempt to drive a wedge between America and those European countries, including Britain, that have supported the Bush administration’s invasion and occupation of Iraq. It represents the first time bin Laden has offered such a truce.
The Italian administration remained resolute. “It’s unthinkable that we may open a negotiation with bin Laden; everybody understands this.” Franco Frattini, the Foreign Minister, said.
● To End an Endless War, America and Al Qaeda Could Talk Truce
Terror from the sky ◊ by Rohan Gunaratna
“But I will not let myself be reduced to silence.”
▼ ▼ ▼ MY DIARY
Osama’s appearances are always convenient for george. Right now, we need to spy on everybody in the country to prevent another 9/11.
Bin Laden’s capture is already planned. The show must go on.
Bush sees himself as some comic book hero in some weird costume pouncing to take out Penguin bin Laden while fighting to save the “free world”. Yeah and most of america raised on a diet of comic book heroes, oh and white hat/black hat westerns believe the fantasy they are fed.
Geez, it almost seems like our government wants an open ended low intensity non geographicaly specific war to keep going on and on…. Nah that’s just me being cynical, isn’t it? As for OBL once he dies his movement has an immortal martyr poster boy so be careful what you wish for. Fading away and dying of consumption in a cold and dirty cave is probably a better outcome for anti-terrorists than either a hail of bullets or after a show trial watched by 3 billion people worldwide. These folks are well aware that they are playing the same kind of public relations game as Karen Hughes, unfortunately for our side they know much more about US culture than she knows about theirs. As an aside, did anyone else think the Zawsahiri attack was prompted by his tweaking of Rumsfeld and Bush about the drawdown being a sign the US is getting ready to cut and run? Just 3 weeks later right?