Why We Can't Nab Bin Laden

by Larry C. Johnson (bio below)

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts it would be Christmas everyday.” This old saying seems appropriate in light of Bin Laden’s latest message to the world. If Bin Laden’s desires equaled actual capabilities then we would face daily attacks by Al Qaeda operatives. Fortunately, Al Qaeda’s actual ability to hit us has been significantly degraded. Despite carrying out spectacular attacks in Spain (March 2004) and England (July 2005), Al Qaeda has not been able to sustain offensive operations in either country, not to mention the United States. We can hinder and even destroy their ability to attack us, but we must make it a priority. Unfortunately, despite tough talk from the White House, we have made finding Bin Laden a low priority. Left unmolested Bin Laden can hurt us and hurt us bad.

So, why is Bin Laden speaking now? He has suffered some recent setbacks. He is certainly reacting to the missile strikes last week in Pakistan that apparently killed some Al Qaeda operatives. Bin Laden is letting his followers and the world know that he is alive and ready to fight to the death. He also is reminding us that he takes the longterm view. The offer of a truce is not a sign of weakness, rather it is a gesture to the Muslim world intended to portray Bin Laden as a man of reason and honor who is intent on being faithful to God’s commandments. When he references the 10 year war against the Soviets and the perseverance of the mujahideen and their ultimate victory, this is not mere hyperbole. It is his war plan for success.

So, why is Bin Laden still walking around free and kicking? Why has the United States failed to capture him?

For starters, no one is in charge of this effort. There are lots of people working on it, but there is no one person responsible on a day-to-day basis. If you ask the CIA Chief in Pakistan, he’ll tell you he is in charge of the mission. If you ask the CIA Chief in Afghanistan, you will get a similar answer. If you ask General Brown at SOCOM he will tell you that he has the mission. And, if you ask the folks at CENTCOM and at JSOC you will get similar responses. Let’s not forget Ambassador Hank Crumpton, the Coordinator for Counter Terrorism. Lots of people working on the issue, but no one actually in charge.

Second, interagency cooperation is still spotty. For example, the Department of Defense has a prioritized list of Al Qaeda personnel they are hunting and the CIA has a different list. DOD and CIA still have not agreed on who in the Al Qaeda hierarchy should be targeted first. I am told that there is pretty good cooperation between CIA and FBI at the worker bee level in Afghanistan, but that this cooperation is personality dependent and breaks down as you move up the food chain.

Third, not all US intelligence and law enforcement resources are being devoted to the effort. DEA, for example, has some remarkable intelligence capabilities. They also have an incredible informant network and face significant challenges in Afghanistan, which has become the largest heroin exporter in the world. Drug sales can fund terrorist operations. Yet, DEA is not part of the CIA/DOD effort to find, capture, or kill Bin Laden.

Finally, the bureaucratic walls that separated the law enforcement and intelligence communities prior to 9-11 are back up and higher than ever. I was given this bad news two weeks ago by an old friend who has worked at the FBI, the CIA, and the National Security Council during the last three years. He said, “the the window of cooperation that opened in the immediate aftermath of 9-11 has been slammed shut.” Apparently we have learned nothing from the debacle of 9-11.

The only way to break through the log jam of bureaucratic politics and stovepiping is for the President or Vice President to make forging interagency cooperation a priority. President Bush and Vice President Cheney talk a good game, but they are not paying attention to the details. Fixing this mess requires their personal involvement on a daily basis. If they fail to act and the old status quo, which has reemerged with a vengeance, remains in place then Bin Laden will eventually succeed. With patience and planning he will breach our security and will kill thousands of Americans. Bin Laden speaks clearly on this point:

As for us, we do not have anything to lose. The swimmer in the sea does not fear rain. You have occupied our land, defiled our honour, violated our dignity, shed our blood, ransacked our money, demolished our houses, rendered us homeless, and tampered with our security. We will treat you in the same way.

I do not want to hear anymore the nonsensical excuse, “who could have known”? from the Administration . Let there be no doubt, we have been warned.
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Larry C. Johnson is CEO and co-founder of BERG Associates, LLC, an international business-consulting firm that helps corporations and governments manage threats posed by terrorism and money laundering. Mr. Johnson, who worked previously with the Central Intelligence Agency and U.S. State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism (as a Deputy Director), is a recognized expert in the fields of terrorism, aviation security, crisis and risk management. Mr. Johnson has analyzed terrorist incidents for a variety of media including the Jim Lehrer News Hour, National Public Radio, ABC’s Nightline, NBC’s Today Show, the New York Times, CNN, Fox News, and the BBC. Mr. Johnson has authored several articles for publications, including Security Management Magazine, the New York Times, and The Los Angeles Times. He has lectured on terrorism and aviation security around the world. Further bio details.