Iran’s Countermove

by Patrick Lang (bio below)

In my previous post, “And the Winner is – Saudi Arabia,” I argued that Saudi Arabia has recently made a successful effort to “acquire” Syria as a state operating within the sphere of influence of “the Kingdom.”

Syria has been for many years an ally of Iran. In this time of renewed Iranian assertiveness as a major power in the Middle East intent on achieving a dominant status it is not surprising that President Ahmededinajad is in Damascus offering a “basket” of “goodies” presumably as inducement to a continuation and solidification of the old relationship between the two countries.

Will the Iranian effort to “recapture” Syria succeed? It is not at all certain that this will happen. The Kingdom will not want this to happen and will “throw” additional inducements, either positive or negative in nature into the competition.

The Alawi rulers of Syria have a difficult time in having themselves taken seriously as “real” Muslims. They like to think of themselves as a Shia sect. Not many Shia think of them that way, but the Alawi treasure the idea and it inclines them toward the Iranians and Hizballah. At the same time they have a good grasp of the attitude toward them of the Sunni, Wahhabi government of Saudi Arabia.

How will all this “balance out” in the context of the hostility of the American and French friends of the Saudis? Only time will tell.

Pat Lang

Reference: The Guardian

Col. Patrick W. Lang (Ret.), a highly decorated retired senior officer of U.S. Military Intelligence and U.S. Army Special Forces, served as “Defense Intelligence Officer for the Middle East, South Asia and Terrorism” for the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and was later the first Director of the Defense Humint Service. Col. Lang was the first Professor of the Arabic Language at the United States Military Academy at West Point. For his service in the DIA, he was awarded the “Presidential Rank of Distinguished Executive.” He is a frequent commentator on television and radio, including MSNBC’s Countdown with Keith Olbermann (interview), CNN and Wolf Blitzer’s Situation Room (interview), PBS’s Newshour, NPR’s “All Things Considered,” (interview), and more .

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“Drinking the Kool-Aid,” Middle East Policy Council Journal, Vol. XI, Summer 2004, No. 2