This is the year that things happen.
The housing bubble can now be seen to have turned over this past autumn. Prices are no longer climbing, buyers are down, and inventory is accumulating. This does not mean much–yet. But as new interest rates kick in and sellers find they just cannot hold on to their properties, prices will come down drastically. Whether this is a crash or a slide, prices will be heading toward one quarter of this year past–yes, if you bought this year you can look forward to 25 cents on your dollar if you ride this all the way to the bottom. (You local mileage may very. Some regions never did rise much, and will consequently fall less.) Prices will return to somewhere near where they were before the bubble started (if not lower). Housing will no longer be “a good investment,” and this will disrupt the entire US economy, whose only “growth” has been in sectors that service the real estate industry. How fast the dominos fall, I have no idea, but this year it begins.
That the dollar is overvalued, and may be due for a slide or a crash, has been noticed by none other than the IMF, which posted a report noting that private panic selling could occur and be a sufficient disturbance to make a crash begin. So now the “real” people are noticing it: It is almost mainstream. Once it is on CNN or in the WaPo, the crash will have arrived. Notice they are not worrying about the Chinese, who, in this context, seem to be a lesser threat. 😀
Oh yes, the Chinese. Suddenly the US is happy to entertain the Russian proposal on Iran’s nuclear programs, (well, not that happy), and the wingnuts are calling for a war on Syria (instead). Was Iran taken off the agenda? This is actually extremely good news, but for the dollar all it really means is that the Chinese won’t move on it until somebody else does. (Then it is all over.) Good news all the same.
This is the year to get out of the US, if you are going to: Regardless of whether Bush and Cheney are impeached, the political situation is going to “get interesting” with increasing rapidity. Right now there are no real obstacles to travel, but that will change. I am optimistic on impeachment, but not on what follows: The Powers-that-Be need their militarization, and their war for oil, and I believe that civil liberties will continue to be the loser. In any case, this is the year that chaos begins to enter your life–from the outside. Halliburton just won a massive contract for building prisons for “illegal immigrants.” Gay people with children are the canaries-in-the-coalmine–when the state moves in on them, you better be on your way out the door. If you are going.
If you are staying, it is time to think about contigencies. At what point will the government likely become interested in you? What is your plan for that? The good news is that the greater the coming chaos, the less control the government will have. That opens up a window for personal tactics and strategy.
I wandered over to From the Wilderness, and the Nigerian delta is really heating up with the recent kidnapping of an oil-worker support/service team. Fighting has cut oil production by nearly ten percent. Nigeria has not been in the news much, and it won’t be. But it is a key region in the war for oil. The US has said it will not send Marines until ?:/ the region is more stable, but one way or another it looks like military forces in Nigeria will have to increase–more, larger war.
So have I said it? Price your house way down and unload it, or else plan to live in it unsold some years. Get out of dollars. Be creative and diversify. Yes, people like gold, and it is worth putting some assets into, but really no one knows what any commodity is going to do. Or any currency. Only oil is guarranteed to climb as a general trend. Remember the people in New Orleans: The ones who did well thought carefully about what was coming and ignored or evaded the government completely. Think about how you plan to face what’s coming.
No one else can.
Life after this year? Probably, but that is another plan, and another diary. Think food.
Thanks for dropping by.
I saw this too although I couldn’t find a second source-could you post a link or site name? I am probably just asking as I don’t want this to be true, willful blindness which isn’t a good survival adaptation.
I feel the same way, that this year is some kind of watershed or point of no return. And I have no idea as to what we can do. The rich or middle class and young have options I do not. Still, forewarned and so on…
jj posted this in a comment on another thread. I will try to track it down when I have time.
Not that I doubt it. My only real hope is that Halliburton will behave true to form–taking the money and not building anything. They have done an amazing job of not providing contracted-and-payed-for services for our troops in Iraq. (The GAO, as well as many servicemen have complained bitterly about this to no effect.) Nevertheless, it would be risky to be counting on that.
It would certainly be nice to have the money to just up and move to New Zealand. (I don’t.) I still don’t know what I am going to do.
Since I don’t have solid connections in other countries, moving does not seem likely for me. It is very hard to just walk out of one own’s life–leaving family or friends and your day-to-day reasons for being. Yet I cannot believe I have the courage or stamina to face what is coming.
One thing that is important is to consider where you are politically. What is your skill, and your influence, and where it can be best applied. The best place to influence what happens in North America is to be in North America, even though, war zones aside, that will be the greatest risk.
If I were another nationality, or a dual nationality, I would have left already, to start putting my efforts to the well-being of my home country. The basic problem for foreign countries is to avoid war on their own territory while detaching themselves from the collapse of the global economy.
Being in America means being in the collapse.
Being poor means that your options are bad and your individual chances are poor. But you may already have learned survival skills that those who depend on things working do not have and will have to learn very, very quickly. So as a group the poor actually have better chances. Some comfort! As you say, as an individual, it just sucks.
here
Thanks.
jj did post this on another thread, but not here on Booman Tribune. It was over at Moon of Alabama on Malooga’s post called Impeachment Worries, about ten comments down. Ductape has found the link, but in case you can’t get past the subscription wall, jj quotes:
KBR awarded Homeland Security contract worth up to $385M (HAL) By Katherine Hunt
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — KBR, the engineering and construction subsidiary of Halliburton Co. (HAL) , said Tuesday it has been awarded a contingency contract from the Department of Homeland Security to supports its Immigration and Customs Enforcement facilities in the event of an emergency. The maximum total value of the contract is $385 million and consists of a 1-year base period with four 1-year options. KBR held the previous ICE contract from 2000 through 2005. The contract, which is effective immediately, provides for establishing temporary detention and processing capabilities to expand existing ICE Detention and Removal Operations Program facilities in the event of an emergency influx of immigrants into the U.S., or to support the rapid development of new programs, KBR said. The contract may also provide migrant detention support to other government organizations in the event of an immigration emergency, as well as the development of a plan to react to a national emergency, such as a natural disaster, the company said.
such unpopular truths, all the more unpopular because of their obviousness and inevitability.
I disagree with you about Iran, though. Mr. Danger says this now so that later he can claim whle US has shown great patience and willingness to compromise even with rogue nations who disobey America, Iran has been especially disobedient and not sent all their Nigerian yellow cake, or some such nonsense, to Russia, Resolve, enemy, prevail.
Steven D did a diary the other day pointing out that Operation Iranian Freedom has already been underway for some time, it has been somewhat “covertisized,” until recently, and the full decovertization will come to pass at the end of March. Syria too will probably be invaded, whether US or Israeli or UK assets will be deployed to this task is not yet certain, at least to me, at least today.
But try as I might, and as much as I might like to, I am unable to disagree with anything else you say.