Mayhem in Counting Terrorism

by Larry C Johnson (bio below)

Simply amazing; the Bush Adminstration still has not figured out how to accurately count terrorist incidents. I know some readers of this blog will be tempted to dismiss my statement as just another diatribe from a knee-jerk Bush hater. I do not hate Bush and still consider myself a political conservative. What I do not understand is, if terrorism is the biggest threat we face, why we cannot make a commitment to accurately monitor terrorist activity around the world.

Before plunging into the statistical mess created by the Bush Administration let me offer this disclaimer–statistics alone do not fully inform us about the threat of terrorism. Statistics do not predict future behavior/activity. However, terrorism statistics, if properly used, can provide us some indication of the scope and scale of the threat. Statistics can also pinpoint where the attacks are taking place and who is responsible for those attacks. Knowing who and where the activities are occurring should guide our policy and our resource allocation. If most of the terrorist attacks are taking place in Iraq and none have occurred in Latin America shouldn’t our resources and attention be focused on Iraq? Logic says yes.

So, welcome to the world of terrorist statistical chaos.

Last April I blew the whistle on the Bush Administration’s attempt to not publish the statistics for 2004 terrorist incidents because the attacks in which people were killed and wounded had soared to unprecedented levels. Caught trying to play “hide the salami”, the Bush Administration trotted out Phil Zelikow (Counselor to Secretary of State Rice) and John Brennan, acting Chief of the National Counter Terrorism Center, to explain things.

Brennan and Zelikow reported that in 2004 there were 651 attacks worldwide in which someone was killed or wounded. By comparison there were only 175 such attacks in 2003. I believe the most important statistic for assessing terrorist activity is the number for the attacks that either killed or wounded someone. In the State Department reports prior to 2005, this statistic was known as a “Significant Incident”. A Significant Incident was an attack in which someone was killed, wounded, kidnapped, or there was property damage in excess of $10,000.
The following chart illustrates the difference between terrorism in general and significant acts of terrorism in particular.

This chart, which is derived from the U.S. Government’s statistics, clearly shows that not only has the number of terrorist attacks soared since we invaded Iraq in 2003, but that the number of Significant Incidents haa quintupled. If that constitutes “winning the war on terrorism” or a record of success then we have entered an Orwellian world in which up is down and black is white.

Zelikow and Brennan also reported that 1907 people died from terrorist attacks in 2004 (the second highest number ever recorded since the CIA started collecting statistics back in 1968) and 6704 were wounded. So far so good.

Now, go check out the statistics listed on the National Counter Terrorism Center website for 2004. 2004 was worse than Zelikow and Brennan claimed it was during their press briefing last May. There were a total of 3204 terrorist incidents in 2004. Instead of 1907 fatalities there were 6110. And, instead of 6704 people wounded in terrorist attacks there were 16,257. So far, no one in the mainstream media has asked the Bush Administration to explain why more people died from terrorist attacks in 2004 than in any previous year, including 2001.

Remember, the National Counter Terrorism Center is:

the primary center for US government analysis of terrorism. It falls under the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI). One of its primary missions is “to serve as the central and shared knowledge bank on known and suspected terrorists and international terrorist groups, as well as their goals, strategies, capabilities, and networks of contacts and support.

So, the definitive voice? Apparently not. If you have not heard of the The National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism (MIPT) and its Terrorism Knowledge Base, check it out. The MIPT is:

A non-profit organization dedicated to preventing terrorism on U.S. soil or mitigating its effects. MIPT was established after the April 1995 bombing of the Murrah federal building in Oklahoma City, and it is funded through the Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Grants and Training (G&T). The United States Congress directed MIPT to conduct “research into the social and political causes and effects of terrorism” through our automated information systems and to “serve as a national point of contact for antiterrorism information sharing among Federal, State and local preparedness agencies, as well as private and public organizations dealing with these issues.”

Here we have another U.S. Government funded effort to keep track of terrorist activity. According to the MIPT statistics for 2004, there were 2640 terrorist attacks, 5066 fatalities, and 10,857 wounded. What really happened in 2004? Were there 3204 attacks or 2640? How many died? 1907 or 5066 or 6110? I guess sloppiness with counting and methodology should not come as a surprise to an Administration that has tried to keep scientists from reporting accurately on Global Warming. Still, this is scandalous.

As a taxpayer I would like to have the money spent to monitor and combat terrorism used in a coordinated fashion. Let’s call it, “collecting the dots we want to connect”. Perhaps now you will understand my pissy mood over the Federal Government’s inability to simply count the number of terrorist attacks in any given year. This is not a simple matter of failing to do basic mathematics. I believe it is a further symptom of the failure to make combatting terrorism a genuine priority. Coordination is or should be a critical part of this process. If we cannot perform that simple task of counting terrorist activity around the world we will have even more trouble in tracking down those responsible for such attacks and, as President Bush likes to say, “bringing them to justice”.

What happened to the terrorist trend in 2005? Terrorism got worse. How much worse is unclear. Instead of the “651” attacks in which people were killed, wounded or kidnapped in 2004, there were at least 953 attacks (according to the MIPT database) in which people were killed, wounded, or kidnapped. It is time for Congress to insist that the Administration provide timely and accurate information on terrorism. Since the Bush Administration cannot perform that simple task is it any wonder they have been unable to find Osama Bin Laden or his right hand man, Ayman Zwahiri?

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Larry C. Johnson is CEO and co-founder of BERG Associates, LLC, an international business-consulting firm that helps corporations and governments manage threats posed by terrorism and money laundering. Mr. Johnson, who worked previously with the Central Intelligence Agency and U.S. State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism (as a Deputy Director), is a recognized expert in the fields of terrorism, aviation security, crisis and risk management. Mr. Johnson has analyzed terrorist incidents for a variety of media including the Jim Lehrer News Hour, National Public Radio, ABC’s Nightline, NBC’s Today Show, the New York Times, CNN, Fox News, and the BBC. Mr. Johnson has authored several articles for publications, including Security Management Magazine, the New York Times, and The Los Angeles Times. He has lectured on terrorism and aviation security around the world. Further bio details.

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