Progress Pond

Iraq could deploy WMD within 48 hours.

We were wondering how long this would take. From the Guardian:

The west’s confrontation with Iran over its nuclear
activities intensified yesterday after Britain claimed that Tehran
could acquire the technological capability to build a bomb by the end
of the year.

A day after the International Atomic Energy Agency referred the
dispute to the United Nations security council, British officials
also indicated that London would back Washington’s efforts to impose
a UN deadline of about 30 days for Iran’s compliance with
international demands.

So now the concern that triggers action is not nuclear weapons but
nuclear technology. Obviously the previous talking points weren’t
working for them. A five to ten-year window doesn’t sound scary
enough, does it?

A senior Foreign Office official said that while it could
take Iran several years to build a serviceable nuclear weapon, it
might gain the technical knowhow within months. “By the end of the
year is a … realistic period,” said the official. “It would be
really damaging to regional security if Iran even acquired the
technology to enable it to develop a nuclear weapon.”

Until now, European diplomats have referred to a period of five to
10 years during which Iran might potentially build a bomb, while
conceding that hard evidence is lacking. By publicly focusing on the
level of Iran’s technical capabilities, Britain may have shortened
the timeframe for a peaceful resolution of the crisis.

“Roll over Tony. Now, sit and beg. Good boy.”

Britain maintains that military action to destroy Iran’s
suspect facilities is not under discussion. But the Bush
administration, backed by Israel, has refused to rule out the use of
force.

This is not about convincing the UN. This is about convincing the US
public. Same pattern as Iraq: when the mild propaganda doesn’t work,
ramp it up and make the threat sound more imminent. It’s the same
channel as well as far as I recall.

I can’t believe that the US administration is insane enough to want
to go to war in Iran but I can’t avoid the parallels between the
build-up to Iraq and now.

Crossposted from European Tribune

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