A giant new oil field was discovered this past week in Mexico, and that generated big headlines.
It is no secret that Iraq sits atop the second largest proven oil reserves in the world (112 billion barrels), hence the rumors that we went to war for oil, but less well known is the fact that Iraq’s potential oil reserves are largely unexplored, and that U.S. Government estimates suggest that the true Iraqi reserves may be as high as 432 billion barrels, which would place it number one in the world, far ahead of Saudi Arabia’s 259 billion barrels in proven reserves.
Afghanistan has long been eyed as a rich site for an oil pipeline, and it has also been known to have modest oil and natural gas reserves of its own. Suddenly the word modest may no longer apply, but the mainstream media doesn’t appear to regard the discovery of major new oil and gas reserves in Afghanistan to be much of a story.
You might be excused if you didn’t notice this AP story two days ago. It wasn’t widely carried, nor was it afforded front-page status:
Wed, March 15, 2006
Huge energy reserves found in Afghanistan
By AP
WASHINGTON — Two geological basins in northern Afghanistan hold 18 times the oil and triple the natural gas resources previously thought, scientists said yesterday as part of a U.S. assessment aimed at enticing energy development in the war-torn country.
Nearly 1.6 billion barrels of oil and about 15.7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas could be tapped, said the U.S. Geological Survey and Afghanistan’s Ministry of Mines and Industry.
Afghan President Hamid Karzai described the estimates as “very positive findings,” particularly since the country now imports most of its energy, including electricity.
“Knowing more about our country’s petroleum resources will enable us to take steps to develop our energy potential, which is crucial for our country’s growth,” said Karzai, whose government was created after the U.S.-led invasion in 2001 and later won national elections.
The $2-million US assessment, paid for by the U.S. Trade and Development Agency, was nearly four years in the making.
U.S. Interior Secretary Gale Norton, whose agency includes the Geological Survey, said the assessment would help Afghanistan better understand and manage its natural resources.
Afghanistan’s petroleum reserves were previously thought to hold 88 million barrels of oil and five trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
“There is a significant amount of undiscovered oil in northern Afghanistan,” said Patrick Leahy, the U.S. Geological Survey’s acting director.
Officials anticipate companies could begin energy exploration in two or three years.
So is Afghanistan about to emerge as a major new oil supplier, and is all of this a surprise to the Bush administration? Russian technicians discovered oil in Afghanistan in 1960. The New York Times reported on May 13, 1960 (sorry, no link) that the reserves were estimated at 300,000,000 barrels, and “significant gas deposits were also reported.” adding that “the problem of getting the oil over the Hindu Kush Mountains appears to be insurmountable.”
Technology has changed. Why do I doubt that this comes as a major surprise to the Bush administration, and why is the discovery of a major new oil field in Mexico big news to the U.S. mainstream media, while similar finds n Afghanistan barely merit ink?
Finally, is it a coincidence that the Bush administration seems to obsess over Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and Venezuela, all of which sit atop considerable reserves of black gold?
Interesting. I’ve always thought it was about oil, but this adds a whole new dimension. It’s been known for 46 years, by at least someone. If whoeverwaspres knew that when we helped the Afghanis against the Russians, surely we wouldn’t have left after the Russians did. If George knew, seems like it would be important to secure Afghanistan before invading Iraq. He may have been eager to get Saddam, but it’s hard to believe he’d turn his back on that much oil.
hat conspiracy theories drip drip drip onto the American wire services.
Pipeline? Nooooo, just a conspiracy theory. Oil? gas? Well maybe just a smooshle, a soupcon of possible gas in Balochistan, but Afghanistan? Oh please. Tighten up that tinfoil hat.
Next thing you know people will say that’s what the whole proxy war was about. Osama a CIA agent? Pish tosh! That’s no different than those rumors of some isolated incidents of alleged misconduct in Abu Ghraib.
If only the wackos would stop reading those little dirtrag papers cranked out on a Gutenberg letterpress in Peshawar that are pure terrorist propaganda and repeating that crap only makes the site look bad. I’ll believe it when I see it on a reliable source like CNN. Or the New York Times.
First of all, the mooted Afghan pipeline is a NATURAL GAS pipeline (supposedly to take gas from Turkmenistan, which indeed has large gas reserves, to Pakistand and the Indian Ocean). As I have written before (Pipeline economics – why the Afghan pipeline will NOT be built), this pipeline will not be built because it makes no economic sense whatsoever, and nobody will dump 3 billion dollars in it.
As to the new discoveries, the volumes are pretty small, and it remains to be seen if these could ever be economic.
If it would not be in the interest of interested parties to publish such information at this time 😉
Why? there is new information, in that a new reserve assessment has been made, which shows more oil than before.
What’s wrong is thinking that:
It’s unlikely that anyone will even notice the story but absurd tinfoil hat conspiracy theorists.
I would be very surprised if any US corporate media would pick this up. I’m sure they have looked into it and found that AP’s source is some little dirtrag paper in Peshawar that doesn’t even have a website.
And to those who thought we went into Somalia under Bush the First for “humanitarian reasons”, I would remind them that there was oil in Somalia too. In fact, the relief efforts were run out of Amoco’s oil company facilities.
It’s the same old song. All the wars in the past 100 years have been fought to gain access to or protect access to key oil and mineral resources. It’s shocking to me how people can be ignorant of this fact.
Considering the U.S. Geological Survey was under Gail Norton’s authority at the Dept. of the Interior, and considering the US Trade and Development Agency, (who’s main task is to advance US commercial benefits around the world), paid for the study, I wouldn’t be according too much veracity to the reports quite yet, let alone make any assumptions that such “information” lends credibility to the notion that it’s even more important to support US behavior in Afghanistan as a result.
I’m reminded of how Zalmay Khalilizad and his masters at Unocal feted the Ta;liban back in ther bad old days because they wanted a major pipeline deal through that country. And the neocons of PNAC, of which Khalilizad is also a member, wanted these pipelines too.
My suspicion is that this whole thing coming out now is somehow related to all that.
. . . runnig through the south of Afghanistan, doesn’t seem to be getting off (technically, ‘on’) the ground, unlike the one bypassing the country (& American reach) — the Iran-Pakistan-India line, which the Chinese would prefer to be developed. Meanwhile, the Russians & Chinese are completing deals in Central Asia.
CPR for the Unocal line here?
Also, I found it interesting how much vitriolic propaganda the lunatic wingnut gasbag and hate monger Jerome Corsi managed to squeeze into his rant that was the article on the Mexico find linked to in the diary.
From the September 10, 2001 item in this CNN timeline:
Who knew what when?
under let’s just say, mysterious circumstances. I believe the US orthodoxy is that this occurred on September 9, this is not universally agreed.
During that summer of Chandra and sharks, there was also the leitmotif of the Bamiyan Buddhas, which the Taliban had had, by that time, nearly six years to destroy, but chose that particular summer, after being courted by certain key US business interest, who they spurned.
Today, old Unocal hand and necktie Afghan Hamid Karzai rules some say as much as two square blocks of Kabul, with the help of a sizeable contingent of US gunmen, both government issue and commercial. Always photographed in his fine Uzbek chapan and karakul, his national unity suit, Hamid will never again visit the powder room to freshen up a bit without being accompanied by his gaggle of Dyncorp protectors While Mr. Danger is fond of boasting of the great advances in womens’ rights in Afghanistan, it will be noted that Madame Doctor Karzai, a physician, is never photographed, nor does she appear in public.
does Karzai wear Uzbek dress? That’s strange for a Pashtun.
He wears it to show how all ethnic groups in Afghanistan are now united in their new democracy.
His chapan is Uzbek, but the Tajiks wear them too, I don’t know why he doesn’t wear a Tajik one. Maybe because the Uzbek ones are more famous.
You are correct that he is a Pashtun, a very elite one, from same tribe as King Zahir.
Surprise, surprise, surprise! come on folks, How is it possible for any living soul to not realize that oil is the key. Instead if the govt pushing alternatives, lets just establish control over as much of the oil reserves in the world as can be done. And I might add that lets get the biggest bang possible by jacking the figures so that there will be a short term windfall besides the long term one! This is just one more reason for realizing that what is called for now is for us folks to head for DC and we should plan on doing it until these bastards are gone!
In and of itself, this oil field is not really significant in the global perspective. A reserve of 1.8 billion bbl would only suffice to supply less than 25 days of global oil consumption (at 85 million bbl/day). But they may strike gold again.
For Afghanistan, however, this is a major find. The domestic oil consumption is an incredibly low 5,000 thousand bbl/day! In other words, the reserves would last for just about 1,000 years at the current consumption rate!
A lone field such as this would be expensive to develop, as there is no infrastructure and currently no other fields to share the cost of investment with. The challenge for the Afghan government is to make sure that the income from the field benefits all Afghans and that the development of the industry is done in a way that protects the environment.
First of all, the knowledge of oil deposits of some size within Afghanistan should come as no surprise. This has been known for some time both within the US government and amongst the Russians.
And second, to imply that the attack on Afghanistan in 2001 came about only because of its oil resources is a bit too simplistic, as this article also suggests;
Weren’t there plans to attack in October that were in place pre-9/11? Wasn’t the Taliban in Texas for more negotiations in the Summer of 2001, for the pipeline?
Yes, according to some sources there were such plans. Clinton ordered an attack on Afghanistan just after the bombings of the American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania too. I have also read about representatives of the Taliban being in Texas for negotiations in 2001 and if this is true then wouldn’t it be rather foolish to ruin those negotiations by attacking the Taliban regime if oil was the only reason for the US to be in the Middle-East? According to other sources I have read, even the Clinton administration had secret talks with the Taliban.
My point is that even if it is oil deposits in a country in the Middle-East, as a matter of fact most countries in the region have got such deposits, that don’t mean that this is the real reason for the US or other States attacking Afghanistan. As I mentioned in my comment above, the reason for this invasion could be the simple fact that the Taliban regime protected a network of people that were responsible for the death of 2000-3000 people. In my opinion the invasion of Afghanistan is the one and only thing the Bush administration did right and the US had even the world’s sympathy for doing it, but then they ruined it by invading Iraq.
exception of your last sentence, where you indicate something of a lack of support for Operation Iraqi Freedom, is one that is encouraged, and many people have worked very hard to encourage it.
As you continue your reading, I hope that you will not encounter anything that might cause you to diverge too much from your current opinion, as it seems to me that people who share your views enjoy a much easier time of things emotionally.
Well, it is important that people have some difference of opinions as this will make a debate more multifaceted and interesting.
As you continue your reading, I hope that you will not encounter anything that might cause you to diverge too much from your current opinion,(…..)
I am always open for good and well documented point of views and if convincing they might even persuade me to alter my current opinion. 😉
Here are a few links that consider some other factors that are involved in the long history of foreign policy in that area.
Enron Pipedreams Buried in Afghanistan
Dabhol – Enron Timeline
I don’t know that we’ll ever know any absolute truth.
Rich men want more money.
It will be interesting to see the reactions of people who think they’re well off now.
Two, really. One, the situation of America’s faux affluent, those who live in fine houses owned by banks, and drive expensive cars owned by finance companies, with credit card debt near or exceeding what they now earn in a year, little or no savings, their only asset, if they lose their job, whatever is in their retirement account, which in many cases amounts to a year, maybe two, of their current salary, and in more cases, less than that.
While their position may sound enviable to those living 3 or less checks from the street, it is unlikely that the faux affluent will spend that post good salary year or two preparing for drastic lifestyle changes.
The other question: of those who oppose US policies, how many would feel differently if those policies caused them to receive a benefit?
Especially with regards to Iraq, it has been suggested both here and elsewhere that there was an expectation that the crusade there would result in lower energy and fuel prices for American consumers….
http://www.usacc.org/contents.php?cid=2
Check out who’s in the Azerbaijan Chamber of Commerce.
It’s a who’s who of the neo-con world.
Very interesting. Sorry I’ve been absent from this thread all day. I was out campaigning with our next Senator, Chuck Pennacchio.
I saw that article. Nice find for Afghanistan, but I agree with ask above, this is not a significant find That’s not to say that Iraq was not about oil. Planting the flag right in the middle of all that mid-east oil certainly is a key component of why the US went to Iraq, and I do not expect it to be the last oil land grab.
I finished reading Twilight in the Desert by Matthew Simmons:
http://www.twilightinthedesert.com/
A very good read. I highly recommend it. He make a good argument that we are currently at peak oil and it’s all down hill from now on out. That’s not to say that oil will disappear over night; it’s just that we will never pump as much as we do now. We will have oil for a LONG time, but never again will we have the cheap oil that drives the US economy.
To put these new finds in perspective, Ghanwar, the largest oil field ever found (by far) currently supplies 5 million barrels per day and has been for the last 40 years. This field provides about 60% of the Saudi oil, and all signs are that it is starting to run out The last time the Saudi’s printed any information on Ghanwar, they estimated that it and the four next largest were a proven reserve of over 70 billion barrels (but that was in 1979 and they’ve pumped a lot of oil since then.)
He states that Iraq and Iran are past peak oil. He’s very suspicious that the proven reserve numbers have been significantly inflated all around the world. It’s true that we have improved the technology for extracting oil (and managing oil fields), but reserve estimates seems to become detached from hard data in the seventies during the first oil shock (the Saudis stopped publishing reserve information).
Have you noticed that we seem to hear more and more about natural gas? That’s because in the normal course of events oils fields provide oil until that is exhausted (there’s still oil in the gorund, we just cannot recover it), then they supply natural gas. (Also before gas recovery was not important so for years the Saudis just flamed the gas separated from their oil.) Now natural gas is being developed by the middle east to be a big money maker, but this is only because oil is no longer abundant.
Remember:
Even at peak oil, we will have oil for a long time (100years?)
but cheap oil is probably gone.
Switching to another energy source will take time, there is a huge infrastructure to replace. We need to start
.
Let’s switch to a source that minimizes greenhouse gases. Latest news is that Greeenland and Antartica are melting twice as fast as predicted – sea levels can rise over fourty feet.