Progress Pond

How Bad does Bush want War with Iran?

Really, really bad if he’s willing to have his State Department put out this kind of garbage as propaganda:

Iran Could Produce Nuclear Bomb in 16 Days, U.S. Says (Update1)

April 12 (Bloomberg) — Iran, which is defying United Nations Security Council demands to cease its nuclear program, may be capable of making a nuclear bomb within 16 days if it goes ahead with plans to install thousands of centrifuges at its Natanz plant, a U.S. State Department official said.

“Natanz was constructed to house 50,000 centrifuges,” Stephen Rademaker, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation, told reporters today in Moscow. “Using those 50,000 centrifuges they could produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon in 16 days.”

This is complete an utter bullshit, folks. Iran doesn’t have 50,000 centrifuges, much less the knowledge or capability to connect them in the technically complex manner needed to produce sufficient quantities of bomb grade uranium. At most Iran has 160-180 workable centrifuges, far less than needed to produce significant quantities of enriched uranium for bombs. Nor does Iran yet have the technical knowhow to produce nuclear warheads for it’s missiles. But don’t take my word for it:

Continued below the fold . . .

















MOSCOW, April 12 (RIA Novosti) – Iran’s announcement that it has joined the world’s nuclear club is a bluff and a political PR move, an expert at a Russian think tank said Wednesday.

“The announcement that Iran can produce nuclear fuel is largely a bluff,” said Vladimir Yevseyev, a senior researcher at the Moscow-based Center for Global Security. “What they [Iranian leaders] said about successfully completing the full nuclear cycle in laboratory conditions should not be viewed as a confirmation that the country could launch full-scale production of nuclear fuel.” […]

The Russian expert said that during the latest experiment Iran had managed to produce only a small amount of low-enriched uranium.

“Iran is talking about completing a full nuclear cycle, but actually it has not gone that far because the full cycle includes plutonium separation in addition to uranium enrichment, and the country has made only a few initial steps in this sphere,” Yevseyev said, adding that it could take Iran at least three years to accumulate enough high-enriched uranium to create a nuclear weapon.

The expert also said Iran could not be considered a member of the world’s nuclear club because the country had not yet conducted a single nuclear test.

“Therefore, I regard all such statements merely as a bluff – political PR moves designed to apply pressure on the West, and ensure a better negotiating position,” he said.

And this, from Juan Cole:

. . . [T]he fact is that all President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Tuesday was that it had enriched uranium to a measely 3.5 percent, using a bank of 180 centrifuges hooked up so that they “cascade.”

The ability to slightly enrich uranium is not the same as the ability to build a bomb. For the latter, you need at least 80% enrichment, which in turn would require about 16,000 small centrifuges hooked up to cascade. Iran does not have 16,000 centrifuges. It seems to have 180. Iran is a good ten years away from having a bomb, and since its leaders, including Supreme Jurisprudent Ali Khamenei, say they do not want an atomic bomb because it is Islamically immoral, you have to wonder if they will ever have a bomb.

In other words, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation Stephen Rademaker is blowing smoke out his ass when he claims Iran could have a bomb in 16 days. This is extremely dangerous rhetoric to be coming from a Senior Government Official. Indeed, this is by far the most chilling thing I’ve read on this entire phony Iran crisis, because it tells us just how anxious Bush is to generate public support for the military option.

It’s also consistent with the Bush administration’s refusal to consider bilateral talks with Iran to negotiate a settlement of this “crisis” and with Bush’s refusal to accept the deal Iran proposed back in 2003 regarding the Iranian nuclear program. One can not have a diplomatic track when one party refuses to negotiate with the other party, but that is just what the Bush administration is paradoxically claiming.

If anything, this should convince any remaining doubters of the accuracy of Seymour Hersh’s reporting. You don’t make baseless and reckless charges like these . . .

Iran could have nukes in 16 days!

. . . unless you have already ginned up the war machine for an attack on Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure. This is part of a a blatant and amoral disinformation campaign on the part of the Bushites. Please, Democratic Party Leaders, do not be taken in by their fear mongering, nor let your voices in opposition to this insane war policy be silenced.

Speak out now. Time is growing short.

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