Not sure what this means in the great scheme of things, but Iran’s representative to the IAEA has announced a new deal with Russia to enrich uranium:
(CBS/AP) Iran’s envoy to the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency said Saturday the Islamic republic had reached a “basic deal” with the Kremlin to form a joint uranium enrichment venture on Russian territory, state-run television reported.
Ali Asghar Soltanieh, envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency, “spoke of a basic agreement between Iran and Russia to set up a joint uranium enrichment firm on Russian soil,” Iranian state television reported.
There is no indication that Iran will stop its own enrichment program (currently still in a research phase). However, any such deal would only serve to strengthen Russia’s opposition to the types of UN Security Council sanctions the Bush administration has been seeking. So far its efforts in that regard have been in vain:
Earlier this week, a U.S. diplomat said that envoys from the five permanent Security Council members plus Germany discussed sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program, but failed to agree on how to proceed.
Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns told CBS Evening News anchor Bob Schieffer Tuesday that although the nearly three hours of talks failed to lead to agreement on sanctions, the diplomats did agree “that Iran should hear a stiff message from the international community” that it shouldn’t have a nuclear program.
There will be no sanctions. Iran is winning the diplomatic war in the Security Council and with the IAEA. However, it may prove to be a pyrrhic victory, since I believe that Bolton has no intention of achieving a diplomatic solution to Iran’s nuclear program.
All along the Bush administration has talked up its desire to use diplomacy to seek a solution to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but it’s actions indicate a refusal to proceed wholeheartedly with that approach. Bilateral or multilateral talks with Iran and the US have continually been rejected by the Bush administration, even though that is the most likely strategy to resolve this “crisis” without a resort to military intervention. It’s certainly the stance we have adopted with North Korea. That we are refusing to even meet with Iran to discuss these issues is the clearest sign that Bush is bent on war.
I’m not sure what Russia’s new deal with Iran will accomplish other than to give Putin diplomatic cover at the UN to continue to (1) resist sanctions and (2) supply arms and military technology to Iran. A sane US leader would reach out at this point to attempt to roll up this uranium enrichment deal between Iran and Russia as part of a comprehensive negotiated settlement to include new IAEA inspection protocols and a reinstatement of the terms of the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty). However, I doubt it will make much of an impression on Bush. Indeed, it may only harden his heart and make him more determined to attack Iran.
I agree that this is unlikely to move the Bush administration…but it is a good sign. I think.
Frankly the more in the bunker these guys get the more frightened I get. Remember Hitler and Stalingrad? Going into Iran has that potential.
Kudos.
SD, while I’m keeping all fingers and toes knotted in the hope that Iran is a no go with our captain of this ship of fools, this newest of announcements – to enrich unranium on Russian soil is the twin of that previously announced in February.
imho, Iran is preparing for an attack. Last month, an AP story had the Supreme Leader Ali Khameni, who has the final word, declaring; it does not matter what Iran does, even if ‘we comply, the US will find a reason to start a war with us…and we’ll be ready.’
I guess being in close proximity to Iraq, one would be a moron to ignore how that evolved.
Steven D & BooTrib,
In your opinion:
What’s the score US vs Russia/Iran?
A sane US leader would reach out at this point to attempt to roll up this uranium enrichment deal between Iran and Russia as part of a comprehensive negotiated settlement to include new IAEA inspection protocols and a reinstatement of the terms of the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty).
Where are we at with the NPT?
forget bush, look beyond him…. where are we at down the road?
I believe that Russia and China may want to see an American attack on Iran as a way to weaken American military and economic power even further. They know Bush prefers a military solution over d a diplomatic one, and in the event of open war Iran would become in effect their proxy, much as the jihadis in Afghanistan were our proxies against the Soviet Union when that country blundered into war there during the end of the Cold War.
They (Russia, Chine and Bush) aren’t really concerned about the NPT. Certainly Russia isn’t because the failure of the NPT would actually help Russia’s technology sector exports. The NPT was always pushed more by the Euros and (in the past) our government as a means of retaining western nuclear dominance and security. Now that Bush seems willing to sink the NPT regime (cf. our recent deal with India) for the benefit of the US nuclear industry, and to justify the neocon empire building in the MidEast, I see little future in non-proliferation. We are likely at the beginning of a period of increased wars over resources fought by more and more countries who have some form of nuclear weapons and a greater willingness to use them (especially if Bush lets the genie out of the bottle by using nukes in Iran).
Of course, what do I know? I sincerely hope my worst suspicions are proven false.
Apparently the U.S. wholeheartedly agrees with the idea:
Advantage: Iran.
We have to remember that Iran has multiple power centers and not all of them are on the same page as President Ahmenijhad. He favors confrontation to build up internal support for his faction, but there are many mullahs who are much more caustious about which path Iran should take. They may be the ones behind the decision to accept an enrichment deal that was previously rejected by Iran in February.
Not that it will matter much. I fear the die have already been cast for an attack by Bush and Co. We are in that period of phony war before the shooting starts. How long a period it will be who can say, but at present I fear we are headed for a military confrontation this Fall in time for the election season.
Irrespective of the President in Iran, the power is still vested in Ayatollah Khamenei, who has to have signed off on the agreement. Further, the British, EU 3, Russia, and China are holding firm, waiting for the IAEA’s report on the 28th, and absent any clear evidence of a weapons program, the issue won’t even make it to the Security Council.
Back from the brink if the deal holds.
The Bush Iran saber rattling mess is going to be an opportunity for Russia and China to grab more influence in the UN. US chances of having a resolution saying ANYTHING will be small. Bush is backfiring this one. All Iran has to do is stay within the treaty stipulations of the NPT and work with the IAEA.
It will be real serious if Iran manages to get a sugerdaddy military alliance deal with Russia or China. Hopefully everyone will remember this is how WWI got started and not make this mistake again.
Excellent diary and excellent comments from the readers! Wow.
Here’s a look at the wider picture:
Russia in the last couple of years has been moving to regain its international influence. Inviting the Hamas leadership after their win was part of this move. While it was criticized in the US and some parts of W. Europe it was a strong move supported by even the American allies in the Middle East such as Egypt. And I couldn’t help but notice Russia signed a multi-billion dollars weapons deal with Algeria recently as well.
Russia and Iran both have agreed (at least in principle) to fund the Hamas government. They’re on the same page on a lot of issues, including the fact that Russia is building Iran’s nuclear power plant as I write this.
Russia already has plenty of oil but what Iran needs is a way to get theirs to market. As Jerome could tell you better, Iran currently relies on exports through the Persian Gulf. But they have underused facilities on the Caspian Sea. If Russia and Iran grow closer, Iran could start selling more oil via the Caspian, including via rail links to China as Kazakhstan and Russia already do.
It is Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE who are nearly 100% reliant on the Persian Gulf to export their oil (plus Iraq and Oman somewhat).
Iran also has billions of petrodollars, cash received for oil sold, that need parking somewhere safe and unfreezable by the west. The Chinese currency is not yet risen to this level but its working its way up there.
The U.S. has become a dangerous insability to the world. Although Russia, China Iran and the rest are not natural allies, there’s the old saying that the enemy of my enemy is my friend. The U.S. unilateral actions are pushing the non-European powers together in ways never seen before.
We already know that Iran will never get punished for its nuclear program short of a smoking gun proof that there’s a finished bomb on a shelf somewhere. The U.S. can bluster all it likes but its the boy who cried wolf, you know? So Iran is winning this PR campaign no matter how you slice it.
Pax