That’s right, Bush dispatched the two R’s to make an unexpected visit to the new Iraqi government. On the theory, I suppose, that they’ll generate better news stories over there than the ones they’re generating over here:
BAGHDAD (Reuters) – Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice made an unscheduled visit to Baghdad on Wednesday just after Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld went to Baghdad in a show of support for Iraq’s new leadership.
Rice arrived on a military plane from Turkey, breaking off from a tour of several European countries.
“The turning point is that Iraq now has its first permanent government of national unity and it gives Iraq a very real chance to deal with the obviously very vexing problems it has faced,” Rice told reporters on board her plane, which arrived around midday in Baghdad.
Ah yes, another turning point. I can’t really think of a good reason for them to to do this other than to hype this new “turning point” in Iraq for another round of endless regurgitation by the usual suspects on the American cable news shows. I suppose there may be other reasons, but frankly this strikes me as a publicity stunt performed in the hopes of raising Bush’s rapidly declining poll numbers back in the USSA.
Still, follow me below the fold for further speculation on why Rice and Rumsfeld may be making this special pilgrimage to Baghdad now . . .
Caveat: Everything hereafter is pure speculation. Whatever the purpose of Rice and Rumsfeld’s visit (and generating positive media spin for Bush back home may be the only real reason) I doubt we will know what it is until several months down the road. With that qualification firmly in mind, let’s take a look at possible reasons for the Rice/Rummy tag team action, shall we?
Reason No. 1: To build support for the Iraqi new regime.
I suppose, in the fevered dreams of the neocons, sending the US Secretary of State and Defense Secretary to engage in high level talks with the new Iraqi government leaders might be seen as a way to generate popular support among the Iraqi populace for their newly formed government. I don’t believe that it can have any positive effect (probably quite the opposite), but I can see how some in Washington might think it would.
Reason No. 2: To pressure the new Shi’ite Prime Minister to crack down on the militias.
Obviously they weren’t getting anywhere with Jaafari and President Jalabani in this regard before now, so maybe they think a show of force (and Rice and Rummy in the same room would sure as hell scare me) by 2 of the administration’s heavyweights will provide sufficient pressure on the new Prime Minister, Jawad al-Maliki, to shut down the torture chambers and death squads being run out of Iraq’s Interior Ministry and (reputedly) elements of the Iraqi police and armed forces.
The trouble here is that al-Maliki’s position in the Shi’ite political alliance is shaky at best. He can’t afford as his first official act to clamp down on the militias. That would be attacking the power bases of whatever modest support he may have among the varous Shi’a factions. And, for better or worse power among the Shi’ites is in the hands of the militias and those who command them, not the politicians. Rice and Rumsfeld can jabber all they want, but it’s unlikely to change this basic fact.
Reason No. 3: To scare off Prime Minister al-Maliki from getting too chummy with Iran.
Iran’s President has already canceled possible talks with the US over the Iraq situation, claiming that in light of the new government, such discussions with the US are unnecessary. He’s also begun a charm campaign directed at the new Iraqi leaders:
Tehran, April 25 (ISNA)-Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, on a telephone conversation with Iraq’s Prime Minister insured that the Iranian nation as before would support the Iraqi government and nation.
President Ahmadinejad also hoped that the establishment of the people government would lead to the complete and powerful organization of a people’s ruling system and the leave of occupying forces.
The last think Bush wants at this juncture is closer ties between Iraq and Iran, in light of his own efforts to demonize the Iranians in order to set the stage for a potential military conflict. Sending Rice and Rumsfeld may be simply Bush’s way of communicating to Prime Minister al-Maliki who holds the real power in Iraq, a power that had better not be crossed by any delusions of sovereignty on the part of the Iraqi government.
Well, those are my three possible reasons for this trip (beyond being merely a public relations gambit to influence American public opinion, that is). What are yours?
Hmm, it looks like I’m may be at least partially right based on this news story:
I dunno is there is a BIG overriding issue that led to the double whammy visit. I do know that they want to show respect to the new honcho, and they want to drive a wedge between Baghdad and Tehran, and they want the militias to stop embarrassing them with godawful human rights abuses.
Maybe they were there to explain about undisclosed locations and avoiding nuclear fallout.
My God, so many turning points – no wonder we’re going in circles!
Haven’t seen you in quite sometime. How are you doing? hugs
Hey Brenda,
I’m doing great, which is why I haven’t been around in awhile – I diaried the whole wonderful story. It’s good to be back with internet access. Thanks for asking, and you?
Ooops, that’s not meant as a highjack
no senior administration official can make a planned, announced visit to Iraq. They always go in like thieves in the night.
In five days the “mission” will have been “accomplished” three years ago.
Good point.
Where are all the cheering Iraqis? Where are the parades for their liberators?
They had to go pay Zarqawi for that last video he made to coincide with Osam’s video. Have to keep the fear going you know.
Reason No. 3: To scare off Prime Minister al-Maliki from getting too chummy with Iran.
Getting too Chummy?
Prime Minister al-Maliki is a member of the al Dawa party which has been chummy with Iran for the past twenty years.
Al Dawa, or “The Call,” is an Iranian based group and one of the principal Shiite groups that operated from Iran during the twenty years prior to the deposing of Saddam Hussein.
“December 12, 1983, Bombing of the US Embassy in Kuwait
The American embassy in Kuwait was bombed in a series of attacks whose targets also included the French embassy, the control tower at the airport, the country’s main oil refinery, and a residential area for employees of the American corporation Raytheon. Six people were killed, including a suicide truck bomber, and more than 80 others were injured. The suspects were thought to be members of Al Dawa, or “The Call,” an Iranian-backed group and one of the principal Shiite groups operating against Saddam Hussein in Iraq.
The U.S. military took no action in retaliation. In Kuwait, 17 people were arrested and convicted for participating in the attacks. One of those convicted was Mustafa Youssef Badreddin, a cousin and brother-in-law of one of Hezbollah’s senior officers, Imad Mughniyah. After a six-week trial in Kuwait, Badreddin was sentenced to death for his role in the bombings.
Over the following years, the arrest and imprisonment of the “Kuwait 17” (also known as the “Al Dawa 17”), became one of the most consistent demands of the kidnappers of Western hostages in Lebanon and plane hijackers.
Ironically, when Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, the Iraqis unwittingly released the imprisoned Badreddin and the remaining members of the Kuwait 17. Press reports vary about Badreddin’s current whereabouts.”
“While based in Tehran the al Dawa party formed a terrorist wing called the Islamic Jihad. Islamic Jihad and al Dawa were responsible for acts of terrorism against Americans in Kuwait and Lebanon. Islamic Jihad was the germ of what would later become the Iranian backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. The 1983 car bombing of the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut that killed 241 marines while they slept was carried out by these precursor groups to Hezbollah. That attack on the Marine barracks has been tied directly to Iran through its surrogates such as al Dawa.”
a good Juan Cole read for today
Oh great, a wingnut roadtrip.
E, I, E, I, O
In direct response to the horrific attacks of 9/11, President Bush and his faithful followers have inadvertently fathered a burgeoning fundamentalist Islamic republic that has a long history and extremely close ties to Iran which Bush deemed an `axis of evil’.
9/11 + Iraq = Bush’s fundamentalist Islamic republic ?
WTF?
Here are some excerps from “The Iran-Iraq War: Struggle Without End” by Major Martin J. Martinson, USMC, 2 April 1984:
(snip)
The stronger stance against Iran is partly in response to Iranian
support for the Shiite faction that may have been responsible for the
bombings of the American Marine and French Headquarters of the
Multi-national Peacekeeping Force in Beirut.
The Shiite faction, Al Dawa (the Call), was expelled from Iraq in early 1980 by President Hussein.
Drawing its support from the large Shiite population in southeastern Iraq, Al Dawa attempted to establish a fundamentalist Islamic state to replace the secular Ba’ath Socialist government of President Hussein.
The present leader of Al Dawa, Hojatoleslam Mohammed Baqr Hakim, is operating from Tehran where he has directed terrorist attacks against targets throughout the Middle East.
It is uncertain if Tehran is directly controlling the activities of Al Dawa abroad or if it is just giving tacit approval for Al Dawa’s activities.
In either case, Iran’s support of Al Dawa is unacceptable and cessation of hostilities favorable to Iraq is now the preferred option for the White House.
1). Iran’s Men in Iraq
Here are some of Iran’s important surrogates in Iraq:
a). Ibrahim “Jaafari” (real last name “Ashayqar”), current prime minister, is from Pakistani origins. His grandfather immigrated from Pakistan. Ibrahim’s father was granted Iraqi citizenship, although he continued to maintain his Pakistani citizenship for himself and his children. Ibrahim’s sister, for instance, who lives in Babylon province, still does not have Iraqi citizenship and recently (4 months ago) renewed her residency in Iraq as a foreigner. Ibrahim is leader of the Iranian-backed Dawa Party. Ibrahim was Iran’s main candidate in the bid for premiership.
b). “Bayan Jabr” (real name “Baqir Solagh Shishtazali”), current Interior Minister, is from Iranian origins. His father immigrated to Iraq and lived in Kadhimiya district of Baghdad. Solagh is a member of the Iranian-backed “Supreme Council on Islamic Revolution in Iraq” (SCIRI). It’s Badr militia dominate the Interior Ministry security forces.
c). Abdel-Aziz “Al-Hakeem” (real last name “Tabatabaee”), head of the Iranian-backed “Supreme Council on Islamic Revolution in Iraq” (SCIRI) and its Badr Militia. His grandfather Mahdi migrated from the Iranian city of Tabataba to Najaf. He practiced herbal cures for ills at the time and was labeled “Al-Hakeem” which means “physician.” Abdel-Aziz’s father Muhsin became a religious leader in Najaf but maintained his Iranian citizenship. Abdel-Aziz himself reportedly still has Iranian citizenship, and his nephew Ammar, who is a spokesman for SCIRI, reportedly is wanted for conscription in the Iranian Army. Last year Ammar had written to former Iranian President Khatemi, to grant him special permission to be excused from Iranian military service.
d). “Mawafiq Al-Rubayee” (real name “Kareem Shahpoor”), current National Security Advisor, is originally from Iran, specifically from the city of Shahpoor. He was one of thousands of Iranians deported from Iraq in 1979.
e). “Jawad Al-Maliki” (real name “Nuri Kamil Al-Ali”) is a member of the same (Dawa) party as outgoing Premier Ibrahim Jaafari Ashayqar. He comes from the village of Jalaajil, in the district of Tawayreej (Al-Hindiya), which is between the cities of Hilla (Babylon) and Karabala. He is reportedly from the tribe of Graydhat (originally Beni-Quraydha). Some of the members of this tribe include the famous songwriter Salih Al-Kuwaiti (who wrote the well-known folk song “Khadiri Chai Khadiri”) who later fled to Israel, and famous news announcer Rushdi Abdel-Sahib.
f). Hussein Shahristani, is a member of the Shiite coalition. His father is Iranian and comes from the Iranian province of Shahristan. Some members of Hussein’s family still do not speak Arabic. He was a nuclear scientist in Iraq who fled to Iran just prior to the Iran-Iraq war. He was accused by former Iraqi Defense Minister Hazem Shaalan in 2005 of illegally working on the Iranian nuclear program.
g). Ali “Al-Dabbagh” (real last name “Bayajoon”), spokesman for Iranian cleric Ali Sistani and member of the Shiite coalition. His grandfather immigrated to Iraq, and settled in Najaf.
h). Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, is one of the top Shiite religious authorities in Najaf. He is Iranian from the province of Sistan, which borders Pakistan. Prime Minister Jaafari offered the Iranian cleric Iraqi citizenship, but Sistani refused it saying “I was born as an Iranian and will die as an Iranian.” Sistani still does not speak Arabic fluently and uses translators. He refuses to do any TV and radio interviews in order to avoid appearing to Iraqi audiences as non-Iraqi.
2). Shift in Iranian Alliances in Iraq
There has been a major shift in alliances in Iraq in the last several months (since last summer). The first major one is the Dawa-Sadr alliance. The Dawa Party is an old religious (fundamentalist) Iranian-backed Shiite party, led by the current Prime Minister Ibrahim “Jaafari” Ashayqar. Dawa is a small party in size, only about 400 in number, but are made of many highly educated people (doctors, lawyers, etc).
Jaafari’s Dawa Party has made a recent alliance with Moqtada Sadr, the young Shiite leader who led a brief revolt in 2004. Sadr, who capitalized on his father’s and uncle’s fame has made claim to lead the militant “Sadrist movement” which claims to speak for the poor Shiite masses. The young Sadr made his fame as a result of the brief revolt he led in the summer of 2004, and established the militant “Mahdi Army” militia, which is made up mostly of poor unemployed young hoodlums who have established a reputation for brutality. They were famous for killing Shiites who became Sunnis, but recently become infamous for killing just regular Sunnis.
The Dawa views the Sadrists as their grassroots, while Sadrists view the Dawa party as their leadership. Both Jaafari and Sadr were invited to Tehran last summer and offered $100 million dollars to do Iran’s bidding in Iraq. This was an about face for Sadr who was very vocal (in 2003 and 2004) and critical of Iran’s meddling in Iraq and the Iraqi Shiite movement. But I guess everybody has his or her price.
That new alliance was a slight to Iran’s traditional proxy, the “Supreme Council on Islamic Revolution in Iraq” (SCIRI) and their Badr Militia led by Abdel-Aziz “Hakeem” Tabatabi. Hakeem’s group, which became notorious for torturing and massacring Sunnis, had lost its popularity among most Iraqis because of its cooperation with the US military. They recently lost favor with Iran (although they are still financed by Tehran), due to their previous cooperation with the U.S. They now play seconds to Dawa-Sadrists. This would be similar to a first girlfriend who loses favor with her boyfriend to some newer prettier girl; she tries to win her boyfriend back. That’s why Hakeem proposed the US-Iran talks, to prove to Iran that they are still useful to Tehran.
Iran strongly backs a Dawa candidate (e,g, Jaafari or Maliki) as Prime Minister. The Shiite Alliance of Dawa, Sadrists, and SCIRI narrowly voted for Jaafari, but the alliance only has 47% of the Parliament seats (so much for the myth of the “Shiite Majority”). The prime minister needs 67% of the votes in parliament to form a government.
The majority of the Parliament opposed Jaafari. After the Samarra dome attack in February, Sadr’s Mahdi Army militia went on a bloody rampage and bombed and torched about 150 Sunni mosques throughout Baghdad and the South, killed tens of Sunni religious leaders (Imams), and rounded up thousands of Sunnis in mixed neighborhoods and killed them in cold blood. Since this happened under Jaafari’s reign (along with the Badr Death Squads operating from the Interior Ministry), the Sunni Arabs stand totally opposed to his leadership. They have been joined by the Sunni Kurds and the secularist party of former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, in opposing Jaafari.
These other groups have asked for a more moderate candidate from the Shiite alliance, like the SCIRI candidate, Adel Abdel-Mahdi (real last name “Muntafaji”). He was a former Baathist in 1960’s and 1970’s like Ayad Allawi and worked in the Iraqi Embassy in Paris under the Baathist government. He later quit and became a Communist in the 1970’s. Then in the 1980’s he became religious and joined Hakeem’s group (SCIRI).
Instead though, the Iranian purse-string holders have pushed for a candidate from the hard-line Dawa party (like Maliki) to replace Jaafari.