At 1:00 AM eastern time, all of North Korea will raise their national flag in anticipation of a great announcement. The anticipated announcement will have something to do with the launching of a new Taepodong 2 missile capable of hitting the United States.
After analyzing satellite images, American officials said they believed that booster rockets were loaded onto a launch pad and fuel tanks fitted to a missile at a site in North Korea’s remote east coast. Fueling a missile is generally considered close to an irreversible step, since it is very hard to siphon fuel back out.
I suppose the North Koreans could still be convinced to abort the launch, but it doesn’t look good. The Japanese are not pleased with this development and it could further erode their committment to a non-nuclear future.
In Japan, Foreign Minister Taro Aso warned that a miscalculation could result in the missile landing on Japanese territory. “If it is dropped on Japan, it will complicate the story,” he told Japanese television today. “It will be regarded as an attack.”
Mr. Aso later toned down his language, saying, “we will not right away view it as a military act,” but he said Japan would seek an immediate meeting of the Security Council if Pyongyang goes ahead with the missile launch…
A test of the missile would ignite a political chain reaction in Japan, the United States and China. The Bush administration might step up financing for missile defense efforts. Japan might increase its missile defense efforts as well, while hard-liners there might even push to reconsider the nation’s nuclear weapons options. Both moves would alienate China.
This all contributes the overall hell-in-handbasket flavor of international relations. Hopefully, North Korea will stand down and not give hardliners more excuses to spend billions on missile defense. A launch will do nothing to ease regional relations, nor will it further the interests of peace.