…Tehran knows it has little choice but to take advantage of the situation. The Security Council is pressing Iran to give up its nuclear dreams despite the fact that under the Nonproliferation Treaty, member states are allowed to control the nuclear fuel cycle. That is being challenged by the United States and the EU-3 group of Britain, France and Germany. There will be further attempts at blackmail and counter-blackmail between the two sides. Ex-Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein is still being tried for various crimes in Baghdad, but that does not include crimes against Iranians: a genocidal war and the employment of chemical weapons during Iran-Iraq War (1980-88). The same league that ganged up against Iran then, are now coalescing under another stalking horse…
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Alberto – the first tropical storm of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season – unexpectedly picked up steam recently and threatened to make landfall as a hurricane. Gaining speed by the hour, forecasters expected it to cross through Florida and into Georgia. Despite market jitters, the 112 kilometers per hour gale – 6 kilometers per hour short of the hurricane threshold – eased into a washout in Florida.
Governor Jeb Bush – brother of the U.S. president – had already signed a declaration of emergency, which activates the deployment of the National Guard and laws against price gouging. Alberto was seen as a testbed for the efficacy of new emergency measures since the debacle of Hurricane Katrina last year.
Alberto nearly morphed into a hurricane, and stock markets took this into account in their seesaw ride during the past 48 hours. Alberto’s effect turned out to be merely psychological. With Katrina as the backcloth, a debutante storm of such force had rarely been seen in the past 40 years. With at least two dozen more storms expected – with forecasters predicting as many as 10 will develop into hurricanes – U.S. National Guardsmen will be bogged down throughout the coming months in domestic relief, evacuation and law enforcement.
That would also mean less relief for U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Game theory predicates an escalation of conflict in both theaters of operations. The Taliban has already launched its great summer offensive, and though this has been predicted, embattled coalition forces may likely be buttressed by non-U.S. troops.
The United States will be relying on their allies more than ever in the coming months.
In Iraq, Sunni militants – sensing the National Guardsmen hold-up in U.S. Gulf Coast states – will battle both the U.S. Army and the Shiite militias. On Washington’s side, this would be a bad time to ratchet up the rhetoric against Iran, but then again, the White House should not expect any breathing space from Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadnijad.
Game theory also predicates that the Iranian government will maximize this six-month hobbling of U.S. combat capabilities to surge ahead with its uranium enrichment project, creating more diplomatic tensions with the United Nations and the Gulf Arab states.
Tehran knows it has little choice but to take advantage of the situation. The Security Council is pressing Iran to give up its nuclear dreams despite the fact that under the Nonproliferation Treaty, member states are allowed to control the nuclear fuel cycle. That is being challenged by the United States and the EU-3 group of Britain, France and Germany. There will be further attempts at blackmail and counter-blackmail between the two sides. Ex-Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein is still being tried for various crimes in Baghdad, but that does not include crimes against Iranians: a genocidal war and the employment of chemical weapons during Iran-Iraq War (1980-88). The same league that ganged up against Iran then, are now coalescing under another stalking horse.
With Saddam already firmly incarcerated, one Iranian diplomatic gambit would be to seek redress under “international law,” meaning a Slobodan Milosevic-style trial at the International Court of Justice in The Hague.
Expect added volatility, volleys of rhetoric, and further uncertainties in the international order. All these add a gratuitous premium to the price of oil, more market jitters and rolling petro-profits for Tehran.
Hurricanes help along the way. Three mini-Katrinas are all that is needed to shake up the world’s largest economy and its only superpower.
The effects of an economically and militarily-hobbled United States will be catastrophic at this precise moment, even to emerging rivals like China. Rising interest rates, surging U.S. twin deficits, and the weakening dollar are just some of the myriad props being juggled by central banks worldwide. These macroeconomic balancing acts are so delicate that it takes little effort to bring the balls, beanbags and clubs crashing down.
Game theory predicates renewed or escalated low-intensity conflicts and ethno-social tensions worldwide. They will range from places like Chad to Cameroon to Nigeria in Africa to the Caucasus and Central Asia, all whom greases our industries either through their oil reserves or through pipelines which traverse their territories.
In-the-nick-of-time announcements of “surprisingly higher” US gasoline stocks each time crude oil is set to break a new threshold may not work in the long run.
With the U.S. military bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan, and its National Guardsman entrusted to battle hurricane-related woes on home soil, oil at the $80 to $90 bandwidth will open up irresistible opportunities for terrorists and the enfants terrible of international relations.
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez could just as well proffer the olive branch to the United States, adding to Caracas’ recent magnanimity in supplying discounted oil directly to U.S. cities. Rapprochement at the official level, however, is unlikely.
In a climate where the United Sates is going to be buffered on all fronts, the giddy prospect of drawing out yet another knife is going to be intoxicating. The effects all these are going to have on the global economy is incalculable.
Only time will tell.
Mathew Maavak [send him email] specializes in energy geopolitics, and was trained in crisis management, psy-war, propaganda at the University of Leeds, UK. He is an Associate Editor (Business) for The Korea Herald – http://www.koreaherald.com/ and a featured columnist at www.populistamerica.com
