Robert Novak’s latest column does not destroy the career of any professional intelligence operatives, but it does speculate about the destruction of the GOP majorities in Congress. Since his main source in Lindsay Graham, Novak focuses on the Senate.
Rick Santorum remains far behind in Pennsylvania. Conrad Burns is in trouble in Montana. Jim Talent trails in Missouri. Mike DeWine is threatened by a noxious Republican atmosphere in Ohio. Lincoln Chafee is endangered in Democratic Rhode Island. Jon Kyl faces a surprisingly tough race in Arizona. Despite excellent candidates in Minnesota and Washington state, no Republican challenging for a Democratic-held Senate seat is in the lead. Thus, a six-seat takeover capturing the Senate is possible.
This is of special concern for Republicans because the third of Senate seats contested in 2006 is more favorable to their party than what will follow. The long-term outlook troubles Graham, who sees a bleak GOP outlook north of the Mason-Dixon Line. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins in Maine and Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania may be the last Republican senators from their states. The rising Hispanic-American population not only has transformed California into a Democratic state; freshman Democratic Sen. Ken Salazar looks like the new political face of Colorado, and Arizona is no longer safe for Kyl conservatives.
These demographic changes suggest an end to the gradual political realignment that began in the late ’60s and produced consistent electoral success for Republicans.
We should add Virginia and Nevada to the list of potential pick-ups. George Allen is a buffoon, and that fact should occur to he majority of Virginians at some not too distant point. And Jack Carter is going to run an aggressive campaign in the rural parts of his state. I think he can pull off a giant upset. Nonetheless, the only race that I think we can safely call for the Democrats is the Bob Casey Jr./Ricky Santorum race. Santorum appears to be finished. I see no way for him to recover. He doesn’t even live here. I hope I am right in this analysis because I very much doubt we can get to 51 seats without taking Ricky out. Here’s my list of potential pick-ups, in order of likelihood.
1. Pennsylvania
2. Montana
3. Missouri
4. Ohio
5. Virginia
6. Arizona
7. Nevada
8. Rhode Island
We need to hold our seats in Minnesota and Washington, and get six out of those eight seats. That will give us a 51-49 advantage in the Senate. More importantly, we’ll see the departure of loathesome crooks Conrad Burns and Rick Santorum, meatheads George Allen and Jon Kyl, and worthless fools Jim Talent and Mike DeWine.
In 2004, I thought Kerry should have selected Bill Richardson as his running mate and campaigned aggressively in Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Arizona. I have always been a proponent of the southwest strategy. The Republicans are alienating hispanic voters at the very time that their numbers are changing the electoral make-up of the country.
Once we’ve done that, we need to start looking for a Ned Lamont type to take out Salazar.
Salazar must go.
but Novak says he is the face of Colorado Democratic party for years to come.
what Gary Hart and Patricia Schroeder looked like.
There was a time when Schroeder and President would show up in the same sentence every once in a while. It sounded pretty good to me. Every time I heard her speak I was impressed.
And I think that’s the problem with electing anyone with a D behind their name. Once they’re there, it’s harder to get them out. You’ll get arguments like, “oh it was her/his first term, you just wait” or “s/he had to make friends first and then s/he’ll really kick ass” or sometimes you just get what you get.
How has CO been liking him so far? And by CO, I mean CO, not more liberal or more conservative people who live outside of the state, the Coloradans [is that what they’re called?].
As a Coloradoan, I voted for Salazar although with some misgivings. I would like to throttle him. Lieberman lite
If Salazar is the “new political face of Colorado”, and by extension, the new face of the democrats, we’re all in trouble. I held my nose on that vote and will not do so again…1 term and out!
And Ritter v Beauprez for Gov?!…SHIT! Lose/Lose some more on that one.
and native even though we live in BAMA as a military family. My family all still lives in Colorado and my impression is that Salazar has been a huge disappointment……but better than Coors (even though I know that sounds really sad). Colorado has some tough times coming up though. Water is precious there and the population grew in leaps and bounds in a very short time. Salazar did a lot of successful work on water issues in the state and we all tended to focus a lot of attention on that during his campaign. It was reassuring at first. Because we have gone through so much growth though and the infrastructure supporting it all is pretty poor if almost nonexistent (we had a lot of developers show up, put up huge tracts of houses without fire or police services or enough schools and just up and leave with their riches) Colorado is seeking to work together and must be community conscious…….they have to be right now, it really isn’t a choice. In my opinion Salazar isn’t going to get away with mincing things like Ben Campbell, the one time Democrat who went Republican did. The environment and transportation are huge issues in Colorado and they have everything to do with survival for the people….you can’t live without water and you can’t get to work without transportation…and the Republicans could really care less what happens to the average man there and nobody is impressed with that lately. I think the burst of the housing bubble is going to sink the Republicans good there too. Lots of Colorado in lots of debt during this big expansion and housing prices were really getting up there and now a new reality has come home to roost.
The face of Colorado Democrats resembles Calvin (of Calvin and Hobbes) at dinnertime.
We’re utterly disgusted.
I still wonder if Chaffee might not see the writing on the wall and go independent or even Dem. The change would amount to little more than which side he counts with for committee assignments, etc. Pretty late in the election season for that to happen though.
On the possible loss side, we realistically have to consider CT. Whether Lieberman wins the nomination or not, there will be splits, realignments, and cross voting that make the results chaotically unpredictable.
I think we also have to look closely at the likelihood that the Novak/Graham team is part of a campaign to lull the Dems into overconfidence and even more sloppiness than usual — there’s nothing like a victory within reach for turning candidates to bland, unelectable mush. I think this election turns almost entirely on whether the Dem candidates choose to stand up and be counted, or aim to be inoffensive nothings.
i don’t think it’s an effort to lull Democrats. The polls tell the story. The Dems look right now to be in good shape to pick up seats in Montana, Pennsylvania, and Missouri. And Ohio is a toss-up.
So, that is putting the majority in jeopardy. I’ll never bet against a Chafee in Rhode Island. So, it becomes critical that we win Virginia and Nevada or Arizona.
I’m still worried about Cantwell and Klobucher.
Connecticut could become a wildcard. However, if the polls show Lieberman in third and Schlesinger in first, I think Joe will bow out.
is going to give Kyl a run for his money (and there’s plenty of it). I chuckled on Friday when I was at the streetlight adjacent to Kyl’s affluent foothills office and saw Pederson campaign signs up at all four corners. We’ll see what happens wrt the latino vote in Arizona, Pederson’s language on immigration, while not as extreme as Kyl’s, is still far to the right of the Dem base in the state.
I agree with your comments about a ‘Southwestern Strategy’ Hispanics hate Rethugs for good reason. As for Kerry…well, it’s too bad but his wife’s billions and the Schrum effect have essentially castrated him. The Schumers and Emmanuels of the party have to go. Their ineptitude give us progressives a tremendous opening.
I do not expect the ‘Vichy Dems’ to take a majority in the House. The Senate is more likely to me.
Imagine what would have happened if some ‘name’ Dem had campaigned for Busby…
We need to keep building the roots and Fighting Dems. Majorities will follow and they will be PROGRESSIVE majorities.
LOL …
Wishful thinking.
Why do you have RI so low? If Chafee makes it out of the primary, I would expect the DSCC to blast him for being a spineless coward. Furthermore, aren’t recent polls showing Chafee and Whitehouse tied?
Because I do not believe that RI will vote out a Chafee.
What about Tennessee? Or is that an “open seat” since Frist is retiring? It would be another turnover from an “R” to a “D” if Ford wins. Right now, his three potential opponents are carrying on an imitation of a “Three Stooges” routine as they debate across the state, poking each other in the eye and slapping each other’s head. Ford has a better chance in Tennessee than the title “first black senator since reconstruction” would at first glance make you think. And even if he’s cut from similar cloth as Joementum, he still would be a pleasant encore to Dr. Kitten.
I’ll believe it when I see it. Ford has a chance. A lot depends on the outcome of the GOP primary. Ford has been tacking hard to the right, as he probably needs to do. I do not have high hopes for him as a Senator. More likely, I will want to throttle him on a weekly basis.
The Democrats do not seriously want to retake the senate or they would have given Pennsylvanians a Democrat candidate vs. Rick Santorum. They didn’t and so I will write-in NONE OF THE ABOVE
When the Democrats start fielding Democrats as candidates I will vote for Democrats.