This diary is written on the working assumption that there is no conspiracy involving Bush and Blair and any desire to cover bad news. I am going to be looking at how the two administrations are presenting or exploiting the news. I strongly suggest that the comparison will provide far more opportunities for political capital for the Democrats than the continued speculation about fanciful conspiracy theories.

At the moment all you are doing is providing the Bush administration with ammunition to use against the Democrats. No evidence of any substantial nature, particularly the reason for the timing, will be available for several months until the trials start. If you are tempted to post any conspiracy theories suggesting that the arrests or their timing had anything to do with Bush, step away from the keyboard now, put the tin foil hat away, have a nice cool drink and keep taking the tablets.

Below the fold, a comparison of what the two most senior politicians to make a comment have said so far.
Blair is on holiday in Barbados, having delayed his departure  over Lebanon. He obviously still remains technically in charge but day-to-day business is in the hands of his Deputy Prime Minister, John Prescott. Although Blair has issued a statement, the main player has been the minister in charge of  security and the police, Home Secretary John Reid.

Britain has a large Muslim population already feeling alienated by Afghanistan, Iraq and the government’s position on Israel’s wars on Lebanon and Palestine. With the exception of Lebanon, these are also likely to be at the root of the 7/7 bombings last year. The choice of that date for the attack almost certainly had nothing to do with the attacks on the WTC and everything to do with it being the anniversary of inter-community clashes in the area of England where most of the suicide bombers lived. The Labour party has traditionally had strong support from the Muslim community at the ballot box. Iraq shattered this and the last General Election saw them loose much of this vote and George Galloway elected in a predominantly Muslim constituency by Britons of Bangladeshi origin. There is a rabidly racist party, the British National Party, which is also threatening Labour’s base by exploiting white discontent at percieved preference being given to “immigrants”. Just that happened in the local council elections in the area of London next door to Galloway’s constituency where the BNP had a number of councillors elected.

I should also explain that the parliamentary system means that the leaders of the other parties are those who would take over the government in the event of an election defeat by Labour and have “shadows” of the main ministers to give their parties’ policy standpoint in the Commons and Lords. The two main parties have received detailed briefings under their “Privvy Council” priviledges.  

Bush on the other hand has every reason to play up the probable Muslim connection. At the moment no details of those arrested have been officially released but it is fairly widely accepted that they are of Pakistani background and born in Britain. His agenda of the “war on terra” is well known to members here so I will not repeat the points here.

With those backgrounds in mind, let’s look at what they said.

Reid had a pre-recorded television statement available for a couple of hours before the main press conference he held with the head of Scotland Yard’s anti-terrorist branch, Peter Clark and the Transport Secretary (another MP and minister in the Government) Douglas Alexander. The press conference coverage replaced the pre-recorded statement in coverage.

Clark spoke first explaining briefly the situation. English law is very specific about what can be released prior to trial and between arrest and charge. That is the reason for the use of “alleged” in any British statement. It does not indicate doubt. Chertoff reiterated what Clark included in his preable:

As always, I must preface my remarks with a request for restraint – and by that I mean restraint in the reporting of events so far as they relate to those who have been arrested.

We must all, please, be careful to say or do nothing that might prejudice the right of any individual to a fair trial.  

Reid spoke next and started by outlining the seriousness of the operation and that it was on-going.

Had this plot been carried out the loss of life to innocent civilians would have been on an unprecedented scale.

While the police are confident the main players have been accounted for, neither they or the Government are in any way complacent.

Had this plot been carried out the loss of life to innocent civilians would have been on an unprecedented scale.

While the police are confident the main players have been accounted for, neither they or the Government are in any way complacent.

Later reporting indicates that some of those due to be arrested were not at the premises raided. The UK now uses a very similar 5 colour coded warning system. Reid explained why it was necessary for the red warning and the precautions to continue and ended his statement with this (emphais mine).

In general terms a terrorist will wish to use evil methods against the rest.

Therefore there is a common cause in this country, among all people in this country whatever background or ethnic dimension, because the threat is common to us all.

Indeed internationally most of the people who have been massacred are Muslim, mostly men, women and children, and in places far from here.

This message was emphasised in a response to a question from the press

“This is not a case of one civilisation against another, one religion against another,” he said.

“It is a case, in general terms, of terrorists who want to use evil methods against the rest.

Bush on the other hand obviously begged to differ when he gave his statement at Green Bay. He started his garbled waffle.

The recent arrests that our fellow citizens are now learning about are a stark reminder that this nation is at war with Islamic fascists who will use any means to destroy those of us who love freedom, to hurt our nation.

So let’s forget conspiracy theories and concentrate on this difference. Bush is exploiting the events to serve his own agenda. Exploitation is not conspiracy. Emphasise how different his statement is from a country where people of every religion are valued equally. Forget the conspiracy theory that “Jews were warned about 9/11” to repeat that Muslims were also victims in the attacks.

The clash of civilisations is illusory, it is a chimera devised by the Bush administration to justify going beyond his failed attempts to find the sponsors of 9/11. This is a fanatical group representing a tiny minority of Muslims worldwide, even if the numbers of Muslims worldwide mean that there are  perhaps several thousands scattered over the globe. Not all of those are targetting the USA. Many have directed this against the governments of the country they live in an perceive as the opponents to their religion. Just like the 7/7 London suicide bombers and those in Bali. If the motives of those arrested allegedly involved in the plot today are guilty, their motives are likely to be specifc around US foreign policy rather than any the Bush/Rove paranoid fantasies.