Iran and Iraq are becoming more intimate in their relations. Which in the Middle East can only mean one thing: It’s the Oil Stupid!
Tehran – Iran and Iraq on Sunday signed a memorandum of understanding for Iran to refine 100 000 barrels per day of Iraqi crude in return for two million litres per day of refined products, the energy news agency Shana reported.
The agreement says the Iraqi crude oil should be transported to Iran’s southern Abadan and western Kermanshah refineries by road in return for petrol, heating oil and kerosene.
Iraq has voiced its readiness to increase the amount of crude up to 400 000 bpd, the report added.
“For transportation of this amount of crude oil, construction of a pipeline should be considered between the two countries,” Iranian Oil Minister Kazem Vaziri Hamaneh was quoted as saying at the signing ceremony with his Iraqi counterpart Hussein al-Shahristani.
Tehran and Baghdad also agreed on “cooperation in shared oilfields in terms of production and development,” Vaziri-Hamaneh said, without elaborating.
Forget about all the other signs of close ties between Iran and the Iraqi Shia political parties. This is the strongest indication yet that Iraq’s government, and particularly its Oil Ministry, headed up by a Shia Minister, Hussein Al-Shahristani is dedicated to close ties with Iran. In the Middle East nothing is closer than oil.
Bush and Cheney and Rumsfeld cannot be happy about this development, which is a virtual slap in their face by the ruling Shi’ites in Iraq’s Government. It is the clearest signal to America that an attack on Iran will result in consequences in Iraq for our troops. Consequences from the thousands of Shia militia men ready to attack American troops should the signal be given. And if Iran is attacked by America it will be.
The sad thing is that I doubt this will deter the Bush administration if, as Seymour Hersh reports, it is still bent on attacking Iran, possibly as soon as November of this year following the elections:
But Pulitzer Prize-winning US journalist Seymour Hersh writes that US President George W. Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney were convinced that a successful Israeli bombing campaign against Hezbollah could ease Israel’s security concerns and also serve as a prelude to a potential US pre-emptive attack to destroy Iran’s nuclear installations.
Citing an unnamed Middle East expert with knowledge of the thinking of the Israeli and US Governments, Israel had devised a plan for attacking Hezbollah – and shared it with Bush administration officials – well before the July 12 kidnappings.
The expert added that the White House had several reasons for supporting a bombing campaign, the report said.
If there was to be a military option against Iran, it had to get rid of the weapons Hezbollah could use in a potential retaliation against Israel, Hersh writes.
As we know, Israel’s air assault did not have the desired effect, and Israel was forced to introduce ground troops. Even then it has suffered critical losses while still being unable to eradicate Hezbollah, or end the rain of Hizboillah’s rockets on Northern Israel. But that dosn’ mean this failure by the Israeli Defense Forces will serve as a cautionary tale for the Bush administration:
Nonetheless, Hersh writes, a former senior intelligence official says some officers serving with the Joint Chiefs of Staff remain deeply concerned that the administration will have a far more positive assessment of the air campaign than they should.
“There is no way that (Defence Secretary Donald) Rumsfeld and Cheney will draw the right conclusion about this,” the report quotes the former official as saying.
“When the smoke clears, they’ll say it was a success, and they’ll draw reinforcement for their plan to attack Iran.”
That Hersh still has sources at the Pentagon who indicate Bush and Cheney are still determined to attack Iran is troubling. That they make the claim that Lebanon was only the prelude for an American attack on Iran, possibly involving nuclear weapons, confirms my worst fears.
Expect September and October to be a constant beat on the war drums as Bush admninistration officials and the right wing noise machine directed by Karl Rove, raise once again the spector of terrorist “mushroom clouds,” only this time their target will be Iran. It will be ugly, divisive, breast beating, bloody rag waving propaganda of the worst sort.
Disinformation Campaign on Iran