One of the senate seats we’ll need to pick up this fall if we’re to gain a majority may well be the seat of retiring Senate Majority Leader Frist, so I thought I’d pass along a snapshot of what’s happening in the Harold Ford, Jr. – Bob Corker race one week after the primary.
(more after the fold)
Some background: There are three stars in a circle on the center of the Tennessee state flag, representing the three regions of the state – the eastern mountains and valleys (Knoxville and Chattanooga being the biggest cities), the central plateau (dominated by Nashville, the state capitol), and the Mississippi valley in the western third of the state (major city is Memphis).
The eastern region, Republican candidate Bob Corker’s home turf, is heavily Republican, has the highest numbers of fundamentalist Christians, and the lowest numbers of minorities. The western region, Ford’s home, is the opposite – Democratic, with a major African-American population in Memphis.
The center of the state is in-between in most demographics, and varies from poor rural towns to the wealthy (Republicans) suburbs and (Democratic) city neighborhoods of Nashville. The towns in the center of the state have drifted from Democratic to Republican, taking the political center of gravity with them in the state. The central region will be a battleground in this election.
Today the Knoxville News-Sentinel had two stories on the senate race from which I’ve taken the excerpts below; you can read the stories here and here for additional details.
Corker, the former mayor of Chattanooga, was selected as the Republican nominee in a divisive three-way primary against former U.S. congressmen Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary, despite charges of not being a “real conservative:”
Corker has acknowledged not all Bryant and Hilleary supporters are coming aboard yet, with some having “poured their heart and souls into the race.”
Democratic Chairman Bob Tuke said there’s a reason for that.“They’ve been told for months now … (that Bob Corker) is a liberal, that he’s a Democrat in Republican clothing,” Tuke said. “Now why today are they supposed to think anything different?”
During the primary campaign, Bryant and Hilleary asserted they were the true conservatives.
For nearly two years, they questioned Corker’s conservative credentials in opposing abortion rights and hammered him for raising property taxes as Chattanooga’s mayor.
[snip]
However, Ben Cunningham, a key figure in Tennessee Tax Revolt, a group of anti-tax activists, remains uncommitted.
“I think everybody is kind of interested in his (Corker’s) bona fides so far as the principles that are near and dear to them, and I guess we all have to assess whether he holds those principles dear himself,” Cunningham said.
Nevertheless, Corker is making headway elsewhere.
U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., a conservative lawmaker who made no endorsement in the primary, said she believes Corker can put concerns to rest among those who have them.“I think it is going to be a matter of his sitting down and visiting with those groups and not being afraid to take their questions and to provide answers and to ask for their support,” Blackburn said.
Hmmm, having to reassure the base – that can’t be a good thing for the Corker campaign. 🙂
Questions about Corker’s conservatism may hurt him with the extremist base, but they will allow him to paint himself as more of a centrist in the general election. Meanwhile, Ford also is attempting to reach out to the center (i.e., the not-so-far-to-the-right), doing retail politics in places like Gallatin, TN (pop. 26,720):
“I come from a big family in Memphis. You may have heard about them,” Ford offered.
Stony faces. A few dry chuckles.
The Memphis Democrat’s focus on the war in Iraq, the need for alternative energy sources, and opposition to gay marriage went over considerably better.
“That’s huge,” said firefighter David Brinegear. “He’ll probably get a lot of Republicans with that right there. A lot of guys wanted to ask him, but they were scared. They thought folks would jump on them. I never voted for a Democrat, but he’s probably the one I’d vote for.”
[snip]
In Dover, west of Gallatin, Cindy’s Catfish Kitchen is the place to be when it comes to cornbread and politics. The local Kiwanis Club meets there every Thursday, and the Dover Chamber of Commerce’s annual banquet is a guaranteed sell-out.
But as an anxious crowd of Democratic supporters and the just plain curious awaited Ford’s arrival Wednesday, there was some confusion on exactly who the Senate hopeful is.
“I don’t know much about him except what they said about his family on TV,” said restaurant owner Cindy Luffman, shaking her head. “Y’know that lady? What’s the one? Ophelia.”
Later, as a young black Ford staffer made his way through the crowd, the roughly 70-person gathering began to applaud. Realizing it wasn’t Ford, the group tittered and resumed its vigil.
“We have a very small black population, so please forgive us,” said Rita Tinsley, a local veterinarian.
[snip]
Democrats hope to ride a wave of GOP backlash this fall from an electorate weary of the ongoing war in Iraq, high gasoline prices and increased deficits. Republicans said their records on tax cuts and national defense coupled with Democratic identity struggles will ensure that the Tennessee seat stays a “red” state.
[snip]
A strong Shelby County [i.e., Memphis] showing could also prove critical to a Senate win, said Karl Schledwitz, a Democratic Party activist and former Sen. Jim Sasser’s first campaign manager.
“If (Harold Ford Jr.) wins the Senate, it will be because of disproportionately high African-American turnout,” Schledwitz said. “Harold is also going to have to find some place in East Tennessee where he does better than normal.”
If the 300-plus Tennessee farmers gathered at the Cool Springs Marriott hotel near Brentwood [a wealthy Nashville suburb] on Thursday were any indication, Ford and Corker are in a near dead-heat.
Both men received standing ovations from Farm Bureau meeting attendees. Both spoke of the importance of tightening controls on immigration and the need for greater fiscal accountability on the Hill.
And after a week of debate challenges in which Ford constantly asked voters “If you see Bob Corker, tell him I’m looking for him,” both men missed each other by mere feet in the meeting hall.
Their views were blocked by a thick cluster of voters in the middle of the aisle.
Am I thrilled with Harold Ford as a candidate? Obviously not. But opposition to the war and a push for alternative energy sources – along with the Democratic senate majority he’d help bring about – may be about as much as we can expect from Tennessee right now. Although the war, the economy, and to some degree civil liberties issues have worn down Republican support, these are, after all, the folks that voted against native son Al Gore for president in 2000 because “he forgot his roots.”
And speaking of Gore, he’s also been active of late around these parts, appearing with Rep. John Murtha at a Nashville Democratic fundraiser that hammered away at Bush’s management of the Iraq war (full story here):
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) – U.S. Rep. John Murtha, who has been a vocal critic of the Iraq war, told a group of Tennessee Democrats there’s no end in sight to the U.S. military actions in Iraq and that peace there isn’t likely under the Bush administration.
“I said a year ago we couldn’t win this militarily, and they (Republicans) attacked me,” said the Pennsylvania Democrat, a decorated Vietnam veteran and military hawk, who has become the face of the Democrats’ anti-war movement since he called for the withdrawal of U.S. troops last fall.
[snip]
Murtha has said that because of continued U.S. presence in Iraq, the nation’s international credibility has taken a beating and the American military is overcommitted and stretched thin.
“We want somebody to stop this president, to change the direction of this country,” he said. “When we went to war, (the administration) said there would be weapons of mass destruction. There were no weapons of mass destruction. There are no weapons of mass destruction, even though some people in Washington still believe it.”
And this line must be hurting, because of the wrath it brought out from local Republicans:
Murtha’s oft-repeated criticism of the Bush administration’s war policies has earned him the wrath of Republicans.
Tennessee’s Republican Party criticized Murtha’s voting record in Congress, especially when it came to Iraq policy.
“Murtha is just another liberal Democrat who’s repeatedly voted against tax relief, strongly advocates surrender in Iraq and has continually voted against laws that help keep our nation more secure,” Tennessee Republican Party Chairman Bob Davis said Saturday in a released statement.
So that’s where things stand in the TN senate race at the moment – the war and energy prices and independence are big issues, although the Republicans are trying to play their old favorites on the hot button Wurlitzer: abortion, immigration, taxes, Dems as “soft-on-terror,” but folks are increasingly hurting financially – especially in the small town swing counties of the state. Conservatives find themselves, to their surprise, taking a good look at the Democratic alternative, and finding it maybe not so scary after all. (Having a surprisingly popular Democratic governor from the right wing of the party helps in that regard, too.)
To win, Ford will have to erode support in Corker’s east TN stronghold, and the Democrats will have to have a heavy turnout in Memphis. But, surprisingly, it may well be doable this year. Booman has said he’s not convinced it’s going to happen, but maybe I’ve given him – and you – a little ground for hope, if not optimism, in this contest.