Iran may be willing to discuss the suspension of its uranium enrichment program according to this article from Bloomberg.com:
Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) — Iran is ready to discuss with the European Union the suspension of its atomic activities, the country’s Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said.
“We are even ready to discuss the offer on nuclear activity suspension, which we see as illogical,” the state-run news agency IRNA quoted Mottaki as saying today at a news conference in Tehran.
The United Nations Security Council on July 31 gave Iran until the end of this month to accept a European Union-led proposal of incentives, and suspend uranium enrichment, or face the threat of economic sanctions. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad yesterday underlined Iran’s intention to respond formally to the offer on Aug. 22.
This somewhat contradicts earlier statements this week from Ahmadinejad that Iran would not suspend it nuclear program in the face of threatened sanctions by the United Nations. Also interesting is who gets left out of the possible negotiations: the United States. This may be simply a maneuver to break Bush’s tentative alliance with the EU on the issue of Iran’s nuclear activities, or it may be a legitimate overture.
(cont.)
After all, Iran may believe that any negotiations with the US at this point would be futile in light of the American government’s efforts to stall a negotiated cease fire between Israel and Hezbollah. Iran isn’t stupid, nor is their president. Despite his rash statements regarding Israel on many occasions he has shown himself to be far shrewder on the diplomatic front than the Bush administration over the last year. He knows he and his country are in the sights of the Neocons as America’s next war to bring freedom and democracy to the Middle East.
In either case, it presents a test of the strength of the alliance between Bush and the EU on the issue of Iran’s nuclear activities. I expect to see a condemnation of Iran’s diplomatic move from the US government (probably to be issued by John Bolton, but maybe from Condi Rice) with a corresponding issistence to the Europeans that no negotiations take place until Iran suspends uranium enrichment. Which begs the question: Will Bush’s European allies stand with the US, or will they choose to pursue separate negotiations with Iran?
If the EU accepts Iran’s overture and negotiations begin, it disrupts both Bush’s timetable for war, and his ability to make use of Iran’s alleged threat in the midterm election campaign. No doubt, Ahmadinejad is well aware of the political implications for Bush if the Iranian threat is diminished in the run up to Election Day in the US. On the other hand, he also wishes to continue his enrichment program, and to prepare for its disbursement of facilities, scientists and nuclear materials prior to any possible US attack. He is well aware that “regime change” in Iran is the ultimate goal of the Bush administration whether or not the Republican party retains control of Congress this Fall.
Ahmadinejad’s playing a bit of a dangerous game, and its not clear how much support for his policies he has from the ruling mullahs, whose governmental authority and power outrank his own. It’s doubtful he can act completely independently of their wishes. With the deadline to accept the UN demand that all uranium enrichment end rapidly approaching, the next few days and weeks should prove interesting.
Also posted in ORANGE
After the defeat of Israel in Southern Lebanon, Iran is in a stronger position. Any realists will acknowledge that the air campaign did not work and massed boots on the ground are required to clear out bombed Arab cities. No more wars on the cheap in the Middle East. The only choices are Negotiation or Armageddon.
Except, the USA has a delusional leader; the real “Mad Man” Scenario. Nothing Iran could do would ever satisfy George W Bush. Iran has to negotiate with Europe in the hope that the EU minus UK’s Blair can isolate the USA and prevent a nuclear attack.
This is correct. W thinks Israel won. Given what we know of his media consumption habits (very limited) and the scruples of his advisors (nonexistent), one can hardly think this a coincidence.
Furthermore, W has a demonstrated ability to misremember the past at a remarkably short distance. The analogous case in point is the UN inspectors in Iraq. The US insisted they be pulled, and W has never referred to that other than to say that Saddam “kicked them out.”
The other thing is that it is impossible tt prove a negative. How does a nation on another hemisphere, with no media presesnce in the US (or Europe for that matter), very very little travel back and forth and strained diplomatic relations at best, how do they demonstrably NOT do something? All the Cheney/Rove juggernaut has to do is to continue to assert that Iran has not stopped.
Europe might be able to influence public opinion on the ground in the US, but the leaders of European Capitals would be reticent to work that angle. And make no mistake, that is what it comes down to.
The Dems have proven they can learn a lesson in about three years. They have not demonstrated the ability to apply that lesson to a variation in circumstance. I will believe they can when they show it.
So what we will need is for domestic media to be influenced by European leadership. Three years ago this was impossible, now maybe less so. The Emperor’s new clothes are a lot less convincing today.
The main thing is that if the Europeans cannot work the US media perspective, there will not be much in the way of an opposition voice. And then we will witness insanity begin in earnest.
I disagree somewhat.
Chimpy McFlightsuit’s plans can be dashed, and the key is Russia.
Russia is alarmed by developments in the middle east, so close to its own restive border areas. And, Russia expressed direct concern over the Lebanon fiasco.
Russia and China have great contact with Iran, and we could have too if Commander Codpiece and his Playful Tiger neo-cons hadn’t botched things so badly in Afghanistan.
Ahmadinejad is the product of George W. Bush and his incompetent buffoons running amok and saber rattling. Bush’s bellowing about war and evil axis gibberish is directly responsible for the downfall of Khatami, and set back the progressive reform movement in Iran ten years.
Ahmadinejad is proving to be no nut case. But Bush is a war crazed nut.
Fasten your seatbelts.
I contend Bush intervened in the Iranian election to ensure the most extreme radical candidate won. That makes it easier to paint Iran as a threat.
one thing is for sure. Cheney isn’t going to wait for things to shake out diplomatically. He will find a way to push the envelope. The Lebanon campaign didn’t work (yet), so it may be onto Plan B.
Watch what happens when the peacekeeping force fails to materialize and the Israeli government falls.
I don’t think it matters what Iran does.
I think these WH neo-con nitwits with their dim enabler are going to go full bore into Iran no matter what.
BTW, I hope C-Span repeats the interview with Mike Wallace–the one that’s unedited.
Actually Iran has suspended enrichment in the past to do so again and the offer was rejected off-hand (See “Sideshows on Iran’s frogmarch to the UN” in Asia Times By Kaveh L Afrasiabi http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HB07Ak01.html)
In fact, Iran has made at least 6 significant offers of compromise to resolve the nuclear dispute. See this link for the details:
http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Iran_Nuclear_Proposals.asp
Conclusion: the nuclear weapons issue is merely a pretext.
The US doesn’t want Iran to advance technologically.
“The U.S. and certain European countries do not want Iran to have access to peaceful nuclear technology, to use that technology. And they are using everything at their disposal to make sure of this. Recent developments in Lebanon again demonstrate that the UNSC is an instrument under their control.”
http://svaradarajan.blogspot.com/2006/08/we-are-still-interested-in-dialogue.html
Lets review the facts:
1- Despite having oil and gas, Iran has a legitimate economic case for nuclear power, which the US encouraged and participated in. Nuclear energy is the logical power source of the future; the US and European states have already announced plans to expand their nuclear power base, and even Rice has stated that developing countries will have to use nuclear power. (See “The fuel behind Iran’s nuclear drive By David Isenberg” Asia Times at http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GH24Ak02.html
and “Past Arguments Don’t Square With Current Iran Policy” Washington Post at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A3983-2005Mar26.html)
2- Iran’s enrichment plans was not clandestine, and was widely reported in the nuclear industry literature
& on Iranian radio. Iran’s deals with countries like China to make the necessary plants had been reported
to the IAEA, and the IAEA had even visited Iran’s uranium mines in 1992. See “Iran needs nuclear energy not weapons” at Le Monde Diplomatique
http://64.233.161.104/search?q=cache:Wv7d_FdiMH0J:mondediplo.com/2005/11/02iran
3- While Iran had undeclared facilities, Iran was never required to declare them in the first place according to the terms of its safeguards agreement (180 day time limit.) And anyway, the IAEA reported in Nov 2003 that “to date, there is no evidence that the previously undeclared nuclear material and activities referred to above were related to a nuclear weapons program.” Read the paragraph about the “Myth of Concealment” here: http://www.hinduonnet.com/2005/09/21/stories/2005092105231000.htm
4- In Nov 2004, the IAEA reported that “all the declared nuclear material in Iran has been accounted
for, and therefore such material is not diverted to prohibited activities.” Thus, Iran has not “violated” the NPT as a violation is legally defined, and there is no legal basis for demands that Iran give up enrichment under Article 19 of Iran’s safeguards agreement with the IAEA and Article 4 of the NPT.
5- In Jan 2006, the IAEA reported that “Iran has continued to facilitate access under its Safeguards Agreement as requested by the Agency . . . including
by providing in a timely manner the requisite declarations and access to locations.”
6- Most of the nations of the world have declared that they support Iran’s right to enrichment – these include the Non-Aligned Movement and the Organization of the Islamic States, as well as Iran’s immediate neighbors.
http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/articlenews.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=2006-06-13T174213Z_01_L1
3763120_RTRUKOC_0_UK-NUCLEAR-IRAN.xml
7- The civilian technological capability that Iran seeks is technology that about 30 other other nations already have – including most recently Brazil. In fact, several US allied nations were were caught experimenting with nuclear weapons programs were only lightly slapped on the wrist.
8- Repeated offers of compromise by Iran that would have addressed the risk of proliferation of nukes were
simply dismissed without any consideration.
So, there we have it. Draw your own conclusions.
Read more: Iran’s Nuclear Program:: Debating Facts Versus Fiction by Kaveh L. Afrasiabi, Ph.D. [Published Mar 2006 – available on Amazon.com]