Via Goddard’s:
Brookings Institution scholar Thomas Mann “projects the Democrats to pickup 25-35 House seats, and four to five Senate seats with a chance to maybe hit six,” according to Thomas Schaller. “Alternatively, Mann said the chance of Democrats capturing the House are two in three, and put the capture of the Senate at 50:50. One lunch attendee whose very close friend happens to be a Republican pollster told him that his internal GOP numbers point to 26 House pickups and six Senate gains for the Democrats.”
Stu Rothenberg is a little more cautious, but he still predicts a pick up of 15-20 seats (just enough to flip the House).
Meanwhile, looks at this from Cruella DeVille:
Harris Says Failure to Elect of Christians Will Result in Legislative Sin: It almost appears that U.S. Representative Katherine Harris (R-FL) is trying to lose the Republican Senate primary. In addition to her connection to a convicted lobbyist, her failure to report gifts from that lobbyist, her staff turnover, her poor fundraising, and her erratic behavior, Harris is now questioning the wisdom of the separation of church and state, a bedrock of the American political system. Harris told the Florida Baptist Witness, the weekly journal of the Florida Baptist State Convention, that separation of church and state is a “lie we have been told” to keep religious people out of politics. As if that was not enough, Harris said “If you’re not electing Christians, then in essence you are going to legislate sin.”
Well, Cruella is always good for a laugh, and lately she seems to get more and more laughable.
On the polls. . .I sure hope they are right, and I sure hope that none of these races are close, within the margin of error, because the close races will all be won by Diebold. We haven’t done a thing to correct the problems with the machines. And probably worst of all we have apparently no means to do anything about the disenfranchisement of potential suspected democratic voters. The GOP still is running their caging lists and the numbers of tan-skinned or darker complected (and other probable groups of Dem voters, certain groups of seniors, etc) voters that will not be allowed to vote by being purged from voting lists is staggering. Sure, they will get their special ballot to fill out. . .but the Defense of voting act (or whatever its proper name) has that one lovely little glitch in it. Yes, those who think they should be on the list of elegible voters must be given the ballot, but the ballots set aside from all other votes are NOT REQUIRED TO BE COUNTED. Clever wording in that act. Must be allowed a ballot, ballot doesn’t have to be counted. Very clever.
So here’s hoping the polls are right. Here’s hoping the wins are by double digit margins. If Dems don’t get out and vote in record numbers, this could be 2004 all over again.
you’re right to be very concerned, but many districts have done a lot to assure the integrity of their vote. Saying we have done nothing is not accurate. People should look into their local voting machines to see what the situation is in their district.
4
Yell it from the mountain top!!!
a 10% lead, or better, will be a diebold insurance number. They can fiddle with 5% using Diebold and use other voter depression means and win. But if there is a bigger margin they risk an all out war.
Maybe I’ve lost the ability to respond appropriately to good news. These polls should be good news (tho they’re not really news–this has been going on for awhile now). But they just scare the hell out of me as I envision the Dems using them as an excuse to just lay back, not get anybody mad, and expect to win without ever saying anything to anybody. Listening to the tired old loser consultants after all. Dem campaign business as usual, in other words.
The polls are not really telling us the Dems will win anything. They’re telling us that the Dems have the chance of a half-lifetime to win big and really change the way this country is run. We need to harrass our candidates mercilessly to make them stand up and be counted. I don’t think they will unless they’re pushed. Here’s hoping Lieberman sinks far and fast and early to provide an inescapable object lesson for all the go-along-to-get-along Dems. In the meantime, Mann’s advice should be burned into all their foreheads:
You know this is exactly what the Bushies will try. For once, our side has to be awake and ready and ruthless.
LOL at Cruella deVille:
– always loved that song. Perfect for Madame Harris.
Did you catch Meet the Press this morning? The consensus was that the Dems are likely to take back the House, and taking back the Senate is not completely out of reach either, although much harder to achieve.
I’m always amazed by the people who know the political outcome two months before people actually vote.
Is this really only a reflection of what the power brokers are thinking? Is it a strategy of just enough Democrats but not enough to threaten the inside-the-Beltway game?
“no, no hearings, no impeachment processes, blah blah blah. But without hearings how can we set things straight?
Harris is insane.
No, merely another desperate mediocrity who thought party loyalty was sufficient to advance one higher and higher, without limit — only to find that competence trumps loyalty, and that “competence” is defined as “usefulness to the Boss.”
Now she’s badly aping the strategies and rhetoric of the bosses who have rejected her; but what else is she to do? They’re the only strategies and rhetoric that she knows.
I, for one, don’t think she’s any more insane than, say, Colin Powell. Just more clueless and less intelligent (those are distinct properties, by the way).
While I welcome her being out of office, I take no pleasure in her constant decline into ridicule.
No amount of ridicule could make up for the damage that this idiot has done.
I wonder if Ernesto’s turn toward Florida isn’t God aiming for Kathrine Harris. The Diety must be getting tired of hacks abusing Christianity to push their right-wing agendas. If Pat Robertson is currently vacationing in the Sunshine State, that would seal the deal.