In Rhode Island, in case you missed it. The primary is today.
Right-wing pundit Ann Coulter titled her August 30 syndicated column on the Rhode Island Senate race: “They Shot the Wrong Lincoln.” The headline is a reference to Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI), whom she excoriated throughout the piece — calling him a “half-wit” and a “silver-spooned moron[] — while expressing her support for his challenger in the September 12 Republican primary, Stephen Laffey.
In Maryland they go the the polls today. The Senate race gets high marks for civility.
On the Democratic side, the race seemed to settle into a contest between Rep. Ben Cardin and former Rep. Kweisi Mfume, two longtime friends who ran an unusually positive campaign with none of the bitter rhetoric so often seen in political campaigns.
In Washington:
Coupled with Sen. Maria Cantwell’s TV advertising blitz, Republican challenger Mike McGavick’s mishandled disclosure of a 1993 drunken-driving arrest might be damaging his poll numbers and how electable national pundits see him to be…
In the wake of news reports contradicting aspects of McGavick’s DUI confession, Cantwell has surged to a 17 percentage-point lead over him in a new survey of Washington voters taken Sept. 6 by Rasmussen Reports, a national, independent polling firm..
In New Jersey. Charlie Cook:
In the Senate, it is easy to see how Democrats might score a net gain of three or four seats. Even a gain of five seats is a reasonable possibility. But the six seats necessary for the majority to change hands still looks tough, particularly since state Sen. Tom Kean Jr.’s challenge to appointed Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez in New Jersey remains dead even, defying all national and regional trends that are weighing down GOP candidates elsewhere.
In Pennsylvania. Read a pro-life Pennsylvanian make the case for Rick Santorum.
Pro-abortioners will hold their noses and vote for Bob, because he will be ineffective, while Senator Santorum probably will be the next Senate Majority Leader if he is re-elected.
In Ohio. Carole King gets out on the campaign trail:
King, whose 1971 album “Tapestry” has sold more than 10 million copies, briefly spoke to 73 members of the public at a free luncheon at Robert’s on Miami…
…King, 64, was slated to make four days worth of stops across rural Ohio on behalf of Brown, who was not in attendance Monday.
“Give Sherrod Brown your vote,” she urged. “And, please God, may it count.”
In Virginia. Webb takes no guff from Nancy Reagan:
A controversial television commercial for Senate candidate Jim Webb in which the late President Reagan is seen praising him “includes not one negative comment… about anyone, including my opponent,” and will remain on the air, the Democratic nominee declared Monday.
In a conference call with reporters, Webb defended the ad’s use of a 21-year-old videotape in which then-President Reagan praised Webb’s “gallantry as a Marine officer.”
Reagan made the remarks during a speech at the U.S. Naval Academy.
Webb served as Navy secretary during part of Reagan’s administration. Both he and incumbent Sen. George Allen, a Republican like Reagan, claim the former president as a political model.
In Nevada. Emily Powers offers the Dems some advice:
Leave John Ensign to his puppy-hugging commercials and Jon Porter to his compassion for the elderly ads. The show is over. All of the puppies, children, and nursing home patients in the world cannot hide their voting records.
Democrats need only to ask Nevadans one simple question. Are you sick of George W. Bush? The small minority of Nevadans who still march deafly to his tune are beyond rational thought and are not worth Democratic campaign efforts.
In Arizona. Bob Geiger weighs in:
So Pederson needs to get busy — and fast. Immigration will also be a huge issue this fall in Arizona and, if Pederson can convince voters that his softer approach is more practical than Kyl’s hard line, while also painting Kyl as a slave to the big pharmaceutical companies, who also refuses to give families a living wage, this may well become very competitive. But, as of today, it looks like Kyl’s race.
In Tennessee.
Tennessee Republican Bob Corker, whose Senate race against Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D) has become a dead heat in recent polls, faced another setback yesterday when a county court declined to put off his deposition in a controversial Wal-Mart-related lawsuit until after the election.
In Montana, Tester fights back against accusations of operating a slush fund:
In response, McKenna said of Burns: “‘This is the guy who’s been in Washington for 18 years doing nothing but abusing and violating ethic rules, often for his personal gain.” McKenna said he was referring to trips flying Burns and his wife to events across the country.
McKenna noted Burns had spent $65,000 in campaign funds to hire a white-collar criminal defense lawyer because of his ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Burns received nearly $150,000 from Abramoff, his associates and his clients – the most of any member of Congress. He has since returned the money and donated to charity.
In Minnesota
A 17-year-old boy wanted something “fresh” to wear to a party, and he shot a 15-year-old boy to try to get it, prosecutors allege.
Darryl Deshon Johnson Jr. was charged with first-degree murder in the shooting death of Courtney Brown and with one count of attempted first-degree murder for firing on Brown’s friend, who was identified only as “T.B.” in the complaint.
“The most stunning thing about this was that the actual, clear reason for this was clothes for a party,” Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar said.
According to the criminal complaint and related documents, Brown’s vintage Morgan State University basketball jersey and his friend’s sneakers caught the eye of Johnson, who was in a group of at least five males who approached them the night of Sept. 2.
“I like them shoes and that jersey,” Johnson allegedly told Brown and his friend just before opening fire along Lyndale Avenue North in Minneapolis.
Brown and his friend kept walking. Johnson allegedly demanded the jersey and shoes again, and produced a silver handgun.
“Take off your shoes and your jersey, I’m Crip, cuz. Hurry up. I ain’t playing,” Johnson allegedly said.
Brown started complying, and his friend pretended to but then bolted down the sidewalk, followed by Brown. The friend said he heard three shots and heard Brown say, “I’m hit.” Brown, who was shot in the heart, fell on his jersey, a gift from his father that police found under his body.
I think I can count up to 51 now. I was about to convert this comment from a dKos thread on a diary claiming that Webb is up by 7 ( sadly its a Zogby interactive poll but still), but here is a perfect thread for me to put it on. Up until recently I have been counting to 50 and having trouble seeing past this number, but I can see a path to victory for Webb and that can give up a Majority in the Senate.
So to start tonight’s version of the conversation Booman, DD and I have been having for the last month ats Drinking Liberally tonight, as of the notorius Macaca comment, and to my mind even worse welcome to the “Real Virginia”&trade directed at a native Virginian I think I can count to 51 seats in the Senate. Webb is now officially a second tier race in my opinion. The main reason for that is not just the “proof” that Allen really is a card carrying racist but that Webb is not getting more serious help from the DSCC and to my mind even more importantly Mark Warner (if Webb wins now Warner is the front running in ’08 I was discounting the race in part because he hadn’t come out swinging for him earlier).
The other races remain about where they were two weeks ago unless anyone has advance results of the primary in Rhode Island. As always I am assuming a wind at our back (this applies to the house as well and I estimate that it is a background improvement of 5% over 2004). I am assuming that we will hold onto all of our seats, and that Bernie will win in Vermont.
Our fist tier (likely Dem) Senate pick ups will be:
Casey in PA
Brown in OH
Tester in MT
Second tier (leans Dem):
Whitehouse in RI
McCaskil in MO (very borderline as the polls are in the margin of error)
Webb in VA (recently promoted)
Third Tier (possible pickup):
Carter in NV
Ford in TN
Pederson in AZ
We also need to in in CT or else control of the Senate will be up to Lieberman, unless we win one of the third tier races. If we count McCaskil and Lamont as third tier races then we need to win two of those 5 races to win control of the Senate.
Okay Luam.
Here goes:
Casey is vulnerable. I am now dropping him from the most likely to win position. His campaign sucks. I still believe that having Rendell on the top of the ticket makes him the clear favorite, and the second most likely pick-up.
Taking over first place is Conrad Burns. He is self-destructing and Tester is a tough no-nonsense campaigner.
If Chafee wins today, he will remain in third place. If he loses, his seat is ours.
Sherrod Brown must overcome the fact that he is running in Ohio where the Sec of State is running for governor. He should win.
We should win these four races.
After that, it gets very difficult.
I hate to admit it, but it is more likely that we will lose in New Jersey than that we will win any other races.
But, next up I will go with Missouri. We are running neck and neck there.
This is followed by Virginia, where we should win but have too little money.
Tennessee is another tight one. I rank it about the same as Virginia.
If Carter bounces back from his colitis, I think he has a chance for a giant upset.
Last in line is Arizona. Kyl is in the driver’s seat there but can see Pederson in the rear-view mirror.
Klobuchar and Cantwell seem to be in good position.
We need Virginia and Tennessee and they are obtainable. And say what you want about electing security dems that are nearly as hawkish as their opponents, they are not overt racists and they don’t kill cats or hit their sister’s boyfriends in the head with pool cues.
We are calling things pretty much the same. I think that Casey’s lead still puts him in the strongest position, even though he continues to have problems with the left and refuses to throw us a bone. He has been touted as the front runner in this race for too long, and Rendell will help GOTV and short up his left flank.
I am also reading more into the Warner endorsement/ support than you are. First of all Webb’s biggest weakness until now has been, as you pointed out. fund-raising. I think those worries are mostly over now that this is a DSCC race and Warner is out there raising cash. More importantly, it means that Warner and his team thinks Webb can win. As of now they are the best democratic experts on the Virginian political field. Warner has come out and staked his presidential run on Webb’s success or failure, and he hadn’t don’t that until after the “Macaque incident”, that means that Warner thinks that Webb can will now, and I don’t think he did earlier.
If you are right, then our control of the Senate hinges on Virginia and Missouri. That means 6 pickups, and 51. I have not been optimistic on that, but now I am.
Sadly there is some chance that we will lose on of our open seats, and to defend against that we need Ford, Carter, or Pederson. In that order although I still think that Ford is a wild card not a national race. Of course Connecticut becomes critical if we have 51 counting CT, if we do pick up 6 seats then Lamont’s race is also quite critical and the Democrats will be very grateful that Lieberman is not wobbling and threatening to caucus with the Repubs.
Wow, BooMan! Thanks for the GREAT summary. Really interesting.
And why do I get the feeling Ann Coulter will die a violent death? Maybe because I believe what goes around comes around? She’s certainly the most verbally violent political pundit I’ve ever heard.
Michael Savage is just as bad.
Good point. People like that make me believe there may actually be a Devil.