In case anyone still doubts Bush’s plans in this regard, consider the following, from this week’s TIME Magazine (subscription required):
On its face, of course, the notion of a war with Iran seems absurd. By any rational measure, the last thing the U.S. can afford is another war. Two unfinished wars–one on Iran’s eastern border, the other on its western flank–are daily depleting America’s treasury and overworked armed forces. Most of Washington’s allies in those adventures have made it clear they will not join another gamble overseas. What’s more, the Bush team, led by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, has done more diplomatic spadework on Iran than on any other project in its 51/2 years in office. For more than 18 months, Rice has kept the Administration’s hard-line faction at bay while leading a coalition that includes four other members of the U.N. Security Council and is trying to force Tehran to halt its suspicious nuclear ambitions. Even Iran’s former President, Mohammed Khatami, was in Washington this month calling for a “dialogue” between the two nations.
But superpowers don’t always get to choose their enemies or the timing of their confrontations. The fact that all sides would risk losing so much in armed conflict doesn’t mean they won’t stumble into one anyway. And for all the good arguments against any war now, much less this one, there are just as many indications that a genuine, eyeball-to-eyeball crisis between the U.S. and Iran may be looming, and sooner than many realize. “At the moment,” says Ali Ansari, a top Iran authority at London’s Chatham House, a foreign-policy think tank, “we are headed for conflict.”
Earlier in the piece, Time talked about orders that give the notion of imminent war substance:
The first message was routine enough: a “Prepare to Deploy” order sent through naval communications channels to a submarine, an Aegis-class cruiser, two minesweepers and two mine hunters. The orders didn’t actually command the ships out of port; they just said to be ready to move by Oct. 1. But inside the Navy those messages generated more buzz than usual last week when a second request, from the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO), asked for fresh eyes on long-standing U.S. plans to blockade two Iranian oil ports on the Persian Gulf. The CNO had asked for a rundown on how a blockade of those strategic targets might work. When he didn’t like the analysis he received, he ordered his troops to work the lash up once again.
What’s going on? The two orders offered tantalizing clues. There are only a few places in the world where minesweepers top the list of U.S. naval requirements. And every sailor, petroleum engineer and hedge-fund manager knows the name of the most important: the Strait of Hormuz, the 20-mile-wide bottleneck in the Persian Gulf through which roughly 40% of the world’s oil needs to pass each day. Coupled with the CNO’s request for a blockade review, a deployment of minesweepers to the west coast of Iran would seem to suggest that a much discussed–but until now largely theoretical–prospect has become real: that the U.S. may be preparing for war with Iran.
No one knows whether–let alone when–a military confrontation with Tehran will come to pass. The fact that admirals are reviewing plans for blockades is hardly proof of their intentions. The U.S. military routinely makes plans for scores of scenarios, the vast majority of which will never be put into practice. “Planners always plan,” says a Pentagon official. Asked about the orders, a second official said only that the Navy is stepping up its “listening and learning” in the Persian Gulf but nothing more–a prudent step, he added, after Iran tested surface-to-ship missiles there in August during a two-week military exercise. And yet from the State Department to the White House to the highest reaches of the military command, there is a growing sense that a showdown with Iran–over its suspected quest for nuclear weapons, its threats against Israel and its bid for dominance of the world’s richest oil region–may be impossible to avoid. The chief of the U.S. Central Command (Centcom), General John Abizaid, has called a commanders conference for later this month in the Persian Gulf–sessions he holds at least quarterly–and Iran is on the agenda.
Norman Solomon notes some media parallels in his piece on this today:
When the USA’s biggest newsweekly devotes five pages to scoping out a U.S. air war against Iran, as Time did in the same issue, it’s yet
another sign that the wheels of our nation’s war-spin machine are turning faster toward yet another unprovoked attack on another country.…
Now, warning signs are profuse: The Bush administration has Iran in the Pentagon’s sights. And the drive toward war, fueled by double
standards about nuclear development and human rights, is getting a big boost from U.S. media coverage that portrays the president as reluctant to launch an attack on Iran.Time magazine reports that “from the State Department to the White House to the highest reaches of the military command, there is a growing sense that a showdown with Iran … may be impossible to avoid.”
The same kind of media spin — assuming a sincere Bush desire to avoid war — was profuse in the months before the invasion of Iraq. The more that news outlets tell such fairy tales, the more they become part of the war machinery.
The growing concern about an imminent war with Iran isn’t limited to the left. In his column today, Pat Buchanan sounds an alarm of his own:
One school contends that the White House has stared down the gun barrel at the prospect of war with Iran and backed away. The costs and potential consequences … are too high a price to pay for setting back the Iranian nuclear program a decade.
Another school argues thus: If Tehran survives the Bush era without dismantling its nuclear program, Bush will be a failed president. He declared in his 2002 State of the Union Address that no axis-of-evil nation would be allowed to acquire the world’s worst weapons. Iran and North Korea will have both defied the Bush Doctrine. His legacy would then be one of impotency in Iran and North Korea, and two failed wars – in Iraq and Afghanistan – which will be in their sixth and eighth years.
Those who know him best say that George Bush is not a man to leave office with such a legacy. He will go to war first, even if no one goes along.
Buchanan offers a sharp reminder that Congress, not the President, should be the one to declare, or decline, war:
Today, President Bush does not have the constitutional authority to launch pre-emptive war. Congress should remind him of that, and demand that he come to them to make the case and get a declaration of war, before he undertakes yet another war – on Iran.
Before any air strikes are launched on Iran’s nuclear facilities, every American leader should be made to take a public stand for or against war. No more of these “If-only-I-had-known” and “We-were-misled” copouts.
I hate to agree with Buchanan on anything, but when he’s right, he’s right. And I’m with him on wanting no more feigned ignorance from the hill. If they’re more ignorant than us bloggers, they shouldn’t be sitting on the hill, period.
I agree with you on the fact we do not have the military to engage in such a war with this country. Once bombs drop we have to have boots on the ground to follow-up this invasion. The fact that they just night drop a nuke of their own on Iran bothers me tremendously.
I think it is really time for the stopping of this make-believe war gaming and start to detach ourselves from the fact that this adm is war crazy dogs.
I find it hard to even think of the fact that bush and his cabal are really that stupid. I find that the Iranian ppl of themselves do not want such a thing to happen. They are a proud ppl and will stand up for their own country, for better or worse. I think bush and cheney will need a time out for this behavior, and I really mean a time out. I agree amazingly with Pat B. At least he sees it like the reality that it is.
But who will give them the time out? They need to be permanently removed from having any control of our military. Public resources for private gain. It’s hellacious, criminal behavior.
I too fear a nuclear scenario. But they haven’t created an appropriate provocation to justify that, and time’s running out. All they need to do is drop some bombs, get a conflagration started, and then Congress will feel they have no choice but to pony up with some funds and some troops. I think the UK wants this as badly as we do and may supply some ground forces.
I keep thinking of the consequences of this, and not just about Iranian retaliation. If they shut down the straits with 40% of the worlds oil, what does that do to heating prices world-wide? What does that do to transportation of products, especially food, world-wide? What happens when people world-wide can no longer afford food because the astronomical price of transportation drives up the cost of the supermarket chains?
I’m not just speaking of American comfort zones here, but world-wide?
The only way for the US to win without boots-on-the-ground, as I see it, is to repeat Hiroshima smashing Iranian resistance and scaring the be-jeebus out of the rest of the world that we actually use nukes. What are the consequences of that? Morally, politically, economically, ecologically, militarily?
Once we piss people off more in the world, and threaten their own political stability by driving the price for essentials such as heat and food through the roof, are they going to stand-by and let us get away with it? What would China and Russia’s reaction be if it was percieved to threaten their security and existance (meaning the food and energy issue, not militarily)?
just wondering.
I want very much to believe the nuclear option is off the table. I think part of this is a move to attempt to provoke Iran into action, after which we will “retaliate”.
The only way for the US to win without boots-on-the-ground, as I see it, is to repeat Hiroshima smashing Iranian resistance and scaring the be-jeebus out of the rest of the world that we actually use nukes. What are the consequences of that? Morally, politically, economically, ecologically, militarily?
“Scaring the bejeezus” will not work and is predicated on another American delusion–specifically, the impact of the Hiroshima bombing on the Second World War. At the time of the bombing, Japan was already defeated in fact (less the mopping up) and was seeking surrender terms. The US was refusing to give them. The reasons for THAT involve the anticipated NEXT WAR with the Soviet Union, but the point here is that the US did not “scare the beejeezus;” the Japanese already knew they had lost.
While it certainly seems to us that Iran is in a bad position, being steadfast in their position comes easily because there is no bargain with the US to be made, and the US is too faithless to keep a bargain anyway. This is true WHETHER OR NOT the bombs fall. Bombing or not bombing makes no difference at all to the Iranian position.
So what would happen? In some respects the full nuclear option is no different from the mere-million-deaths nuclear option (the bunker-busters). Most likely: The US navy goes to the bottom. The straits of Hormuz close, permanently. The main Saudi oil terminal is destroyed, shutting down a large fraction of the world’s oil supply indefinitely.
Morally, the US is then openly in a position worse than Nazi Germany in 1943–a rapid-dog nation that is the declared enemy of all people everywhere, to be brought down as soon as possible. Which will then happen. Americans really ought to think: The nuclear option precludes mercy, and we will not get any.
Starvation is the nicest thing we would have to look forward to. Without oil, advanced economies collapse. But there is worse than that, harder to predict with certainty, but so not hard to imagine.
Ecologically? To recommend these scenerios, you have to hate your own children with a hatred that is more than lethal. Radiation effects are well-known, and cancer–for example childhood lukemia–is the absolute LEAST. More important are inheritable birth defects and immune deficiency. Immune deficiency means that children die of outrageously horrible diseases that nobody has studied because they normally never happen–the microbes that cause them are never even noticed. Radiation effects travel around the world, on the wind. It all depends on what the wind does.
In addition the stress to the ecology generally reduces its ability to support human life.
Have I made my point? Okay then, so how are these policies seriously under discussion? Because the American executive is literally, technically insane. They are possessed of the idea of murder/suicide. This is a familiar American phenomenon. Every once in a while, some white man, usually but not always from the mid-West, takes a gun and shoots up his work colleagues, boss, wife, and children before killing himself about the time the police arrive. We now have a government filled with these people.
You watched the Colombine killings on videotape. How can you not understand?
No, people over here in Europe are already afraid of the US led by this administration. Nukes have been mentioned and the thought of a democracy using nukes in an unprovoked attacked will scare the shit out of people in other countries. So much so that there very well may be a united political front formed in opposition to the US.
This is a rhetorical question to ask people to think because no one is speaking to the issues of an aftermath other than Iranian retaliation. It came to my mind because I am living a little closer to Iran than anyone in the US. In 1986 I served on the Multi-National Force and Observers in Sinai, Egypt. This was after Chernobyl. We had a shit-load of birds die on the beaches and our battalion photographer picked one up and also picked up 50 rads for radiation. It turns out that these birds migrate every year to the ME from Ukraine. Ecology knows no borders.
No one is even considering what such insanity would cause. I only read about how Hezbollah and Shiites will retaliate against US forces.
There’s a lot more at stake than US interests here, this will have serious ramifications world-wide yet unforeseen if they are seriously planning this.
So yes you made your point, but I was seeking discussion of cause and effect instead of condesension.
You will forgive me for misunderstanding the intent of your post.
for the US to win without boots-on-the-ground, as I see it,
That was the phrase that did it. Notice it assumes NOT that the neocons think the US can win, but that ACTUALLY the US can win. These are different things, and your post deserved the chastisement.
As for the web of consequences, perhaps I am to be faulted for merely stating the obvious. But beyond the obvious, things get pretty murky. What will Russia do? What will China do? There are many, many possibilities. What will they choose? They may know, but I don’t.
We can expect ecological damage, but again it is not clear how deep or apparent the consequences will be. The more you know, the worse it will look: The happy scenerios depend on ignorance.
Thank you for your account of the birds, post-Chernobyl. So much of the Chernobyl story dropped out of the news as soon as it became clear it was not a sell for the nuke industry.
You are right, that was written badly. There is no way to win, and there is no human reason to try and do this. I do think that if the neo-cons do the unthinkable, it will subdue things for a while in the short-term as eveyone takes in the horrors during an initial state of shock. This I envision is the “win”.
But after the shock is over…
I think of “shock and awe” in Iraq. Immediately after it was quiet and “mission accomplished”, we “won”. Then things began to happen. I think I should have been clearer in my writing about that. No, I don’t believe it is winnable and I am even beginning to wonder, on a meta-scale, if in general wars are even winnable anymore at this point in humanity’s history.
They would certainly announce “Mission Accomplished!”
And then the consequences would come.
for the next 43 days. I wouldn’t put much beyond the capability of BushCo™ but… this ain’t gonna happen/. What army are they going to use to fight it? Where’s the money going to come from? They’re gambling with 140,00) + American servicemen’s lives in Iraq, not to mention the potential naval, air force, and civilian casualties that should be expected; and the threat of a “limited” nuclear strike just ratchets the FEAR™ upward.
Once again, the reich is controlling the media spin and cranking up the FEAR™ level, in preparation for the midterm election…and, the left, as a whole is buying into it. This is obfuscation, no more, no less; designed and implemented to distract the attention of the proletariat, and keep the election(s) close enough to steal…assuming they even happen. These sociopaths are suddenly afraid of the consequences of losing, even with a lapdog opposition.
The potential consequences of this are so potentially devastating, not just here, but world wide, that it is beyond absurd to entertain the reality of such a move. China, Russia and the EU3, have already made their positions clear…if sanctions are off the table, and negotiations are to proceed without US involvement, war is unacceptable.
The people in charge of the government at large may indeed be crazy, but I do not believe they’re stupid. Should they move forward with this, the results will be extremely unpleasant. There is no upside in this adventure, and, should it happen, it will be the death knell of America, as we know it.
Sorry, I’m not buying into it. My time is better spent trying to facilitate a change.
…would your time have been better spent on the phones to your Congressperson and Senators urging them to find a way out, before it was too late?
that’s a big part of this:
My time is better spent trying to facilitate a change.
as is working to get alternative…read liberal/progressive…people elected.
This is a distraction…congress is about to go into recess until the election, get out and go at it with them and challenge them face to face…just my 2¢.
To me it’s not a zero sum game.
And won’t that be the excuse?
“We couldn’t ask Congress for permission – they were all out campaigning for re-election!”
(Source)
Of course they’re opposed to this deal. It’s reasonable and fair, but it screws up their pre-election strike deadline….
…per this DKos post:
Beware the Biggest Comma. Bush War III: Going to War to Save His Own Sorry Ass
“No, incredibly, this is all about a domestic election. To put the matter bluntly, we have a president who is willing to put tens of thousands of American soldiers’ lives at risk, and hundreds of thousands of innocent Iranian lives at risk, simply to avoid having the Congress fall into the hands of the Democratic Party.”
with Iran? Or is it just the same old well we can do it, so lets proceed and fantasize about being welcomed by the freedom loving peoples of the country. Oh and while there we might as well commit as many war crimes, atrocities and as much torture as we can.
From what Clark said, allegedly, the “strategy” (if anyone dares call it that) seems to be bomb-and-run. They’ll hit the nuclear facilities, claim “Mission Accomplished,” and years later we’ll be having the discussion about the need to cut and run.
…is to take out the facilities and set Iran’s energy program back several years. Talk of fear of nuclear weapons is a smoke screen.