The conventional wisdom these days says the White House is split on it’s Iran policy between the Warmonger faction under the management of Cheney & Rumsfeld, Ltd. and the Realist faction led by Secretary of State, and intimate friend of George W. Bush, Condoleeza Rice.
I’m officially an agnostic on whether Rice really does support a diplomatic solution, or if she’s merely “tying up the loose ends” (i.e., showing diplomacy doesn’t work) in order to facilitate the Neocons’ planned strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. But let’s assume, for the sake of argument, that Secretary Rice is serious about her efforts to resolve the Iranian crisis (a ginned up crisis, but a crisis nonetheless) with words rather than bombs.
The question then becomes how much time does she have to achieve a diplomatic solution? Based on this story, I’d say not much longer:
SHANNON, Ireland (CNN) — U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said she has seen nothing to indicate that Iran is prepared to suspend uranium enrichment.
Her comments came Monday during a re-fueling stop in Shannon, Ireland, en route to the Middle East.
“I think it’s fair to say that we have not yet heard anything that suggests the Iranians are going to suspend,” Rice said. “In fact, you’ve probably have seen the statements to the contrary from the Iranian President.” […]
On her trip to the Middle East, Rice is scheduled to travel to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Israel and the Palestinian Territories.
The stated purpose of the trip is for Rice to lead a “diplomatic effort to engage moderate leaders across the region,” according to the State Department Web site.
In Saudi Arabia, Rice will meet with Saudi King Abdullah. In Cairo, she will meet with President Hosni Mubarak and Foreign Minister Aboul Gheit.
Well, color me suspicious, but I doubt Bush sends his Secretary of State to meet with Saudi King Abdullah and Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak in the middle of an election campaign merely to engage moderate leaders in the region. You engage moderate leaders with someone several pay grades below Madame Secretary’s level. No, in my view, Rice has been sent to the Middle East with a much more specific purpose, and it has nothing to do with any engagement, real or imaginary.
(cont.)
She’s been sent to deliver a message from Bush to King Abdullah and President Mubarak, America’s two principal Arab allies in the region. I can only speculate as to the exact nature of that message, but it probably has something to do with the additional US naval forces that have been ordered to the Persian Gulf.
In other words, it has everything to do with our policy toward Iran. My guess is she’s been sent to confirm to King Abdullah and Mubarak that Bush fully intends to order an attack on Iran if diplomatic efforts to get Iran to halt its uranium enrichment fail. I suspect she is also been given the task of obtaining assurances from the Saudis and Egypt that any aid requested by the administration and our military forces will be forthcoming.
I also suspect that Rice wants Iran to learn of these discussions. It may be her last attempt to communicate to Iran’s leaders that they should take whatever carrots the Europeans are offering in negotiations before the big American military stick is swung.
All assuming, of course, that she really is serious about diplomacy. An assumption that past experience with the Bush administration should have taught us is one in which we shouldn’t put too much faith.
