Others have been writing about candidates in specific states. I wanted a short overview of the possible national outcome.
So, how close?
In the Senate, seven Republican seats are currently identified as more likely than any others to turn over to Democrats, according to Gallup Poll results published October 6, namely
- Virginia: Sen. George “Foot-in-Mouth” Allen now has only a slight edge over Democrat (and former Reagan Republican) Jim Webb;
- Pennsylvania: Casey has improved his lead over Santorum, 51% to 39% in a Quinnipiac September 26 poll
- Montana: Democrat Jon Tester is leading over Sen. Burns by seven points, with 10% of the voters still undecided;
- Ohio: Democrat Sherrod Brown and Sen. DeWine each have a very slight edge; the Ohio poll conducted for the Plain Dealer September 25 – 27, shows men voters prefer DeWine and women prefer Brown;
- Missouri: Democrat Clair McCaskill now leads Sen. Jim Talent 48% over 45%
- Tennessee: Hallelujah, Frist is retiring, and his seat may be filled by a Democrat, Congressman Harold Ford, who leads the Republican candidate by an inch;
- Rhode Island: Sen. Chafee, a “moderate” Republican, trails Sheldon Whitehouse by a significant margin.
As for the House:
As Reuters reported October 4, 2006, Democrats lead Republicans in 11 of 15 races for the House of Representatives, namely
- Arizona
- Colorado
- Connecticut (Rep. Shays trailing Democrat Farrell)
- Illinois
- Indiana (two seats)
- New Mexico
- North Carolina
- Ohio
- Pennsylvania
- Virginia
Republicans lead races in
- Minnesota
- Kentucky
- Iowa
- Connecticut (Rep. Simmons leads Democrat challenger Courtney)
MSNBC has an interactive map of races ranked by likelihood of switching party control, including gubernatorial races.
Electoral-vote.com features much more on races, including a map, new polls by state, analyses on battleground states, and links to political sites. The current prediction: a virtual tie in the Senate.
Additional ideas & thoughts??