Friday the 13th Open Thread

13 Comments

1. 

   boran2 on October 13, 2006 at 4:37 pm

   The thought of being caught wearing white after Labor Day.

   • 

     Man Eegee on October 13, 2006 at 4:55 pm

     you’re saying the BooTrib thong should be printed on black fabric?

     • 

       CabinGirl on October 13, 2006 at 4:58 pm

       What, no neon green?

       • 

         Man Eegee on October 13, 2006 at 5:17 pm

         point, how very conservative of me to suggest such a boring color  😉

2. 

   PsiFighter37 on October 13, 2006 at 4:38 pm

   Just got back from a fundraiser with Lois Murphy, Joe Sestak, Patrick Murphy, Allyson Schwartz, and Hillary Clinton. Writeup beginning after I get the pics uploaded; should be available in an hour or so.

3. 

   BooMan on October 13, 2006 at 5:01 pm

   Date: October 13, 2006
   To: Friends of Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

   From: Stan Greenberg and Ana Iparraguirre
   James Carville

   RE: MELTDOWN
   Report on the Special Survey in 49 Republican-Held Seats

   We do not often get to write such a report — changes so large over such a short period that they certainly portend a whole new playing field for the November election. This survey of 1,200 likely voters was conducted in only Republican-held seats, yet Democrats are ahead by 4 points overall in the named congressional vote (49 to 45 percent); indeed, they are ahead by 2 points (48 to 46 percent) in the bottom tier of presumably safest seats.

   This vote represents a dramatic change in the state of the race over the last two weeks. The end of the Congress — with the increased pessimism and
   anger about Iraq and the Foley scandal and subsequent partisan brawl — has moved voters to shift their assessments of the parties and their votes. The 1994 election broke at the end; this one just broke. The shift is evident on every
   indicator — party, Bush, war, intensity and morale.

   The shift this poll shows in the Republican held seats reflects a dramatic change nationally in the generic congressional ballot. On Monday, Democracy
   Corps will release a report that shows that a 5-point swing on average to the Democrats in the ten media polls conducted in October. The Democratic vote, stuck at 49 percent for months, suddenly jumped to 53 percent in the last two
   weeks.

   We highlight these findings this Friday afternoon because Democrats and progressives need to think radically differently about the 2006 battle — in this three-week window. In 1994, the race shifted dramatically at the end, but Democrats have a chance to consolidate gains large enough to affect
   congressional control over this decade. That means allocating resources and finding new resources to lock in the gains, as the Republicans move their much greater resources up to the new barricades.

   Meltdown
   2

   In addition, the meltdown was produced by a collapse in confidence in Republicans
   without a comparable surge for the Democrats. After flat-lining for a year, the Democrats have
   edged up but their favorability (warm responses) is only 2 points higher than the Republicans.
   Amidst all the mudslinging, Democrats can consolidate and expand these gains if voters will
   hear what Democrats want to do with a new majority — work with both parties and the President
   to take a new direction in Iraq and wage a better war on terrorism, work to lower drug and gas
   costs, and to achieve energy independence.
   Why is this meltdown happening?

   * Iraq. The new belief — and by very big number — that the U.S. is losing ground in
   Iraq, and the thinking that it is making us less secure, has turned voters against the
   Republicans.

   * The President has tried to nationalize the election around national security, but instead,
   he has nationalized the Iraq war — which is now clearly dominant as a reason for
   voting.

   * Individual Republican incumbents have suddenly lost their incumbent protection and
   are now fully associated with the Congress that people hate. Drop in incumbent job
   approvals is the biggest factor opening up the playing field.

   • The Congress is seen as a bickering mess that is getting nothing done for people. Disapproval hits new highs.
   • Intensity is tilting the playing field: strong disapproval of Bush is double strong

   approval; those voting Democratic are now 16 points more likely to be enthusiastic
   about election than Republican voters.

   The result is the lowest scores in more than a decade for the Republicans and the Congress;
   a president in people’s faces who is more unpopular than any president in memory, a likely
   electorate even more Democratic than the broad electorate; and an across the board shift in the
   vote across Republican districts.

   This meltdown is real but given its timing, an immense opportunity for Democrats to move
   strategically to consolidate gains at an unimagined level.

4. 

   Cake or Death on October 13, 2006 at 5:01 pm

   Nothing really too scary for me today. Today is the little one’s B-day! 3 years old today! So happy Birthday to my Man-Cub. 😉

   • 

     Second Nature on October 13, 2006 at 5:17 pm

     Three is my absolute favorite age!

   • 

     Man Eegee on October 13, 2006 at 5:19 pm

     Happy Birthday to Baby Cake or Death!

     Where’s Mr. Bunny Slippers been lately?

     • 

       Cake or Death on October 13, 2006 at 6:44 pm

       Ahh he’s still around. Been working alot lately to afford all of the doc visits i have had lately. (sigh) Probably looking forward to more but for now trying to concentrate on the Man-cub’s party. A welcome diversion to be sure. 😉

       • 

         Man Eegee on October 13, 2006 at 6:48 pm

         a great weekend.  Hope you’re feeling better

         • 

           Cake or Death on October 13, 2006 at 6:57 pm

           Hoping for both. thanks for the thoughts 😉

5. 

   Jaded Prole on October 13, 2006 at 8:23 pm

   Those ships chugging their way to the Persian Gulf are a bit worrying. I know the chimp is stupid enough to attack Iran but will the joint chiefs and the military go along with it?