I am going to do something unusual here and ask someone else to do some research. But first I want to set up a scenario that I think is being ignored by the blogosphere.
A lot of people are suspicious that Joe Lieberman, if he wins re-election, will caucus with the GOP. I don’t think that is very likely unless a very specific set of circumstances takes place. If Joe Lieberman is denied seniority by the Democratic caucus he will seriously consider caucusing with the Republican Party. But, knowing that, the Democrats will not deny Lieberman seniority unless they can afford to lose his vote and still maintain a majority. That means, the Dems would only consider stripping Lieberman of his seniority if they have a majority of 52. To get a majority of 52, the Dems would need to pick up eight seven seats. In order of likelihood, these are the eight seats we could pick up: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Montana, Rhode Island, Missouri, Tennessee, Virginia, Arizona.
Now, how likely do you think it is that we will win all eight seven of those eight seats without losing either New Jersey or Maryland? It’s not very likely. How likely is that we will win seven six of them? Taking Arizona out of the mix makes it at least plausible, but can we win Virginia AND Tennessee?
If we get to 51, and Lieberman is re-elected, then Lieberman will be able to decide which party controls Congress. It will literally be his decision. And as much as he will owe his victory to GOP financing and votes, he will be unlikely to screw all his lifelong friends on the Hill by denying them desperately desired Chairmanships.
Just think about the other Connecticut Senator, Christopher Dodd. He stands to chair the Rules and Administration committee and, since Sarbanes is retiring, he is in line for the the Chairmanship of the Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee. He’ll only get one of them, but does Joe want to deny him both? Does he want to deny John Kerry the Small Business chairmanship? He will not screw over his friends lightly.
But, there is another problem that people are not considering. What if, as Sally Quinn predicts, Donald Rumsfeld resigns his position after the midterm elections? Who will replace him?
If the Dems take the House (as is almost assured at this point) and the Senate, the President will be forced to forego his former governing style and seek opportunities to blunt the mandate for change that such a repudiation at the polls will authorize. Offering the Pentagon to Joe Lieberman will be a very attractive way for Bush to attempt to ride out his bumpy last two years in office. The Establishment will fall all over themselves applauding such a move.
Lieberman would have to be crazy to trade a freshly won six-year term in the Senate for a two-year term at the Pentagon where all the chickens will be coming home to roost. But Joe is a vain man. And Joe would love to be in charge of all those weapons, even if only for a short time.
If Lieberman is given the choice between throwing the Senate to the GOP (when he could just as easily chair the Homeland Security and Govermental Reform Committee as a Democrat) and running the entire Pentagon, I suspect that he will take the job at the Pentagon.
So, here is my question: assuming Jodi Rell wins the election for Governor of Connecticut, who will she select to replace Lieberman? And, once that Republican joins the Senate and tilts to a 50-50 Senate where the Republicans control all the committees, how long will that Senator get to serve before a special election is held?
