Progress Pond

All things Iran

Yes, Steven D’s obsession returns. Here’s the latest news about the 2nd member of the Axis of Evil (the one without the bomb which Bush wants to bomb) with commentary by yours truly. First up, what does Iran think about the scheduled interdiction exercises the US and a few friends will be conducting in the Persian Gulf starting on October 31st (i.e., Halloween)? Well, it doesn’t view them as any treat, that’s for sure:

Iran has criticised planned US military exercises in the Gulf as provocative.

Iran’s official news agency IRNA quoted an unnamed foreign ministry official as describing the military manoeuvres as dangerous and suspicious.

Reports say the US is to hold naval exercises at the end of October with Bahrain, Kuwait, France and Britain. […]

The Iranian foreign ministry official said the US-led exercises were not in line with the security and stability of the region. Instead, they are aimed at fomenting crises, he said.

He complained that it was the warmongering of neo-conservatives in America who want to win the mid-term US congressional elections in November.

What? Warmongers in the Republican Party attempting to manipulate the American public into keeping them in office? Perish the thought. Wouldn’t happen. Not prudent.

Meanwhile, in the “How soon will Iran have Nukes to wipe Israel and America from the Map” category, Germany weighs in with this prediction:

BERLIN (Reuters) – Iran is unlikely to be able to develop a nuclear bomb before 2015, the chief of Germany’s BND foreign intelligence agency said on Tuesday.

Hmmmm. How many months ago were we being told that Iran would probably have the Bomb within a few months? Nine months ago you say? That long, huh. Guess Charlie “Kill all the Brutes” Krauthammer has a wee little difference of opinion not only with the CIA, but also with German intelligence analysts, on the finer points of Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Still, whose opinion do you think President Bush is going to rely on with something as important as Iranian Nukes? German Intelligence, the CIA or Charles Krauthammer? You know the answer already? See, I told you my spot quizzes are always easy.

(cont.)
Now for some news that you won’t see on any major US Cable TV News shows this evening. Despite what you may have heard, Iran actually wants to restart negotiations on its nuclear enrichment program:

MOSCOW Iran is keen to restart talks with six major powers on the disputed Iranian nuclear program and was willing to discuss all issues, Tehran’s envoy to Russia said Tuesday, according to news reports.

Asked if Iran would consider a freeze on its uranium enrichment activities if the negotiations resumed, the ambassador, Gholamreza Ansari, replied: “I am certain that Iran is ready for talks to begin as soon as possible, all issues can be discussed during these negotiations,” RIA-Novosti reported.

Somehow, I don’t think the resumption of talks with Iran is something Mr. Bush is interested in. That just isn’t what he means when he says he’s pursuing a diplomatic track on Iran. As for what he does mean by that term, Condoleezza Rice and John Bolton’s vaunted diplomatic efforts to obtain a sanctions resolution from the United Nations Security Council don’t seem to be making any headway:

Washington – An agreement on United Nations measures to punish Iran over its nuclear programme eludes major powers a week after Europeans began working on it, United States officials and UN diplomats said on Monday.

US State Department spokesperson Sean McCormack said there was “widespread agreement, although not total agreement”, among the United States, France and Britain on a proposed resolution that would pressure Iran to halt sensitive nuclear fuel work.

A need to address North Korea’s announcement of a nuclear test on October 9, has contributed to the delay, McCormack said. But he noted there were “strong feelings” among major powers over the Iran issue.

“Strong feelings” is diplomacy speak for “Russia and China have told us to F*** off!

And lastly, Iran continues to fiddle with its uranium enrichment research while American warships huddle up in the Persian Gulf:

WASHINGTON — The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said Monday that Iran has begun testing new uranium-enrichment equipment that could double the capacity of its small research-and-development facilities.

The action appears to be a signal to the UN Security Council that Iran would respond to sanctions by speeding forward with its nuclear program.

But in an interview Monday, Mohammed ElBaradei, the director general of the IAEA, said that “based on our most recent inspections, the second centrifuge cascade is in place and ready to go.” He said that no uranium had been entered into the new system, but that it could be as early as next week.

Even with two cascades running, it would take Iran years to enrich enough uranium to produce a single nuclear weapon.

Thus, does Iran tease the tail of the American Dragon. Testing the second centrifuge cascade doesn’t do much at all in terms of Iran’s capability to produce highly enriched, “bomb grade” uranium, but it does just enough to feed Bush and Cheney’s paranoia, and their desire to implement the “military option.” In a more rational universe, we would have already struck a deal with Iran, trading away our stated policy goal of regime change for assurances on their nuclear program, closer economic ties, reduced support for Hezbollah and intelligence sharing with respect to Al Qaeda. But hard liners control the leadership of both countries now (in Iran, that’s in no small part thanks to Bush’s meddling) and I fear we slide ever closer to a military conflict that only a mad man would welcome.

























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