Earlier today a missile destroyed a madrassah (Islamic school) in Northwestern Pakistan, killing approximately 80 people in an attempt to kill the Al Qaeda’s real #2 man, Ayman al Zawahiri. Although initial reports claimed the attack was launched from a Pakistani military helicopter, ABC has confirmed the missile was launched by US forces:
Ayman al Zawahiri was the target of a Predator missile attack this morning on a religious school in Pakistan, according to Pakistani intelligence sources.
ABC News has learned the raid was launched after U.S. intelligence received tips and examined Predator reconnaissance indicating that al Qaeda’s No. 2 man may have been staying at the school, which is located in the Bajaur region near the village that is thought to be al Qaeda’s winter headquarters.
Despite earlier reports that the missiles had been launched by Pakistani military helicopters, Pakistani intelligence sources now tell ABC News that the missiles were fired from a U.S. Predator drone plane.
Several things of note here. First, it’s curious that the ABC report omits the 80 civilian deaths that were claimed in the earlier Reuters report. ABC only refers to between 2-5 “senior Al Qaeda militants” as having died. The sourcing for those figures is anonymous. Only unnamed sources in Pakistan’s intelligence service are quoted.
Second, it appears the attack jumped the gun. No one is claiming Zawahiri died in the attack, and the mention of 2-5 militants sound like a little sugar to cover the bitter taste of that failure. This suggests that the operation was approved by someone in the Bush administration for political reasons rather than tactical ones. I don’t know if the intel was wrong, or simply unconfirmed, but the decision to kill 80 people on the hope that you might get Zawahiri on the eve of the election seems rather risky and represents a rather callous disregard for human life.
Third, this can’t be good news for Musharraf. It’s clear he’s on shaky grounds with the Islamists in his own government and military, as the recent coup attempt and missile attack on his residence demonstrated. Speculation has already begun about what this may mean for the future of his regime:
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Updated below …
Soon after Monday’s raid, Qazi Hussain Ahmed, the chief of the powerful Islamic political party, the Jamaat-i-Islami Pakistan (JI), announced that two leading JI members had resigned their posts – a senior minister in NWFP, Sirajul Haq, and a member of the federal parliament from the Bajour agency, Haroon Rasheed.
The JI is a part of the six-party religious alliance the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), which has been at the forefront of agitation against the proposed legislation on women’s issues, as well as in opposition in general to Musharraf and his pro-US stance in the “war on terror”.
Haq was quoted as saying that protests would be staged throughout the northern tribal region on Tuesday.
Significantly, Pakistan and Taliban authorities struck a peace deal in Bajour only two days ago and were scheduled to sign a document to that effect on Monday. This lends credence to the possibility that it was NATO and not Pakistani forces that made the raid.
Clearly, any peace deal in Bajour is now off the table, and the MMA will seize on the raid to ramp up and expand its campaign against the proposed women’s legislation. The MMA has already threatened to resign from the central parliament and all four provincial assemblies, two of which have a controlling MMA presence.
To the extent Musharraf may have been trying to come to a separate peace with Pakistan’s militant Islamists, that now appears to have been swept aside in the wake of this tragedy. This may have been the goal of the US, to drive a wedge between Musharraf and the militants, but if it was, its a poor strategy. Musharraf’s regime is shaky enough. This attack and the resultant slaughter will likely result in a hardening of the Islamist militants’ attitudes toward negotiating a deal with the dictator, and will make it all the more likely that future coup attempts, or even a full blown revolt against the regime may come to fruition.
Considering Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, and its ballistic missile systems, that isn’t an outcome that would bode well for our national security. Nuclear tipped missiles in the hands of a regime which fully and openly supports the Taliban, Al Qaeda and jihad against the West would be a disaster. Despite the odious nature of the Musharraf regime, he isn’t ever likely to provide nuclear weapons to terrorist groups. The same can not be said about those who might assume power after he is deposed.
That’s why this smells of a Bush political move. Focus on the short term domestic gain at the expense of our nation’s long term strategic interests is par for the course with this President and his political advisors. Our foreign policy is in the hands of people who can’t distinguish between their own political interests, the interests of their corporate backers and the security of ordinary Americans. Or more likely, they simply don’t give a damn about protecting the lives of ordinary Americans.
Update [2006-10-30 16:56:29 by Steven D]: MsNBC has a story from one of their foreign correspondents who claims he was near the village where the madrassah was located at the time of the attack:
Yusufzai, who is usually based in the region’s main city, Peshawar, was in the area to cover a peace deal that expected to be signed on Monday between Bajur tribal leaders and the military. He describes the scene in the village of Chingai, near Khar, the main town in the Bajur tribal district, after the attack and discusses the reputation of the school prior to the attack.
What was the scene like after the air strike by Pakistani troops on the madrassa school training suspected militants?
It was dark and very early in the morning when the blast occurred. And then I heard helicopters over the village of Chingai where the madrassa school is located. People in the village immediately arrived at the scene of the air strike and were trying to recover bodies from the rubble. The school was flattened and completely destroyed.
I saw Faqir Mohammed, an al-Qaida commander in the Bajur tribal district. Usually the Taliban doesn’t allow reporters to film things, but Mohammed let me interview him and film the scene near the school.
The link to MsNBC’s interview with their correspondent has a link to his video of the scene after the attack.