More on My House Predictions

In My House Predictions this morning I predicted the Dems would pick up 30 seats. Then a bunch of Zogby polls were released. The Zogby polls have had a lot of outliers this elections season, so I take them all with a grain of salt. But they do, for the most part, back up my predictions. Below the fold I have a table with the most recent polls from all the most contested races (I stole it from National Review Online).

These polls show a net 27 seat gain for the Dems. But they add a little flavor. For example, only 20 of my 30 seats are included in NRO’s 27. The additional seats are CO-04 Musgrave 42%, Paccione 45%, FL-13 Buchanan 41%, Jennings 52%, FL-22 Shaw 42%, Klein 48%, IL-06 Roskam 40%, Duckworth 54%, KY-04 Davis 42%, Lucas 45%, NH-02 Bass 39%, Hodes 48%, OH-01 Chabot 40%, Cranley 49%.

The most recent polls conflict with some of my picks. For example, I have projected Dems to win the following seats where they trail:

CA-11, Pombo 41%, McNerney 40%, CT-02, Simmons 47%, Courtney 42%, MN-06, Bachmann 52%, Wetterling 42%, NY-25, Walsh 44%, Maffei 42%, NY-26, Reynolds 50%, Davis 45%, OH-02, Schmidt 48%, Wulsin 40%, PA-08, Fitzpatrick 47%, Murphy 42%. WI-08, which I picked for Kagen, is even 43%-43%.

So, the most recent polls show seven Democrats ahead that I didn’t list, and seven Democrats behind, which I did list. I’d say my prediction of thirty is pretty solid. If anything it is too low. Thirty to thirty-six seats and I’m sticking to it.