Readers of this blog may get whiplash as they jump between my optimistic and future-oriented posts and Steven D’s cautious warnings and detailings of GOP foul play. These are not inconsistent. The Dems are really riding the wave of a potentially historic landslide, and the election machinery really is horribly vulnerable and the GOP really is engaged in shenanigans. We want the front-page this way. It reflects reality. We should win big. If we don’t, we will want to detail why, and it won’t be because of Karl Rove’s brilliant turnout machine.
If you really want to understand the reason for my heady optimism, head over to MyDD and read Chris Bowers’s latest post. If that doesn’t warm your heart I don’t know what will. Here’s the key:
…according to the most recent, independent poll from individual House districts, Democrats are ahead in 37 Republican-held districts, and close in 23 Republican-held districts. By contrast, Republicans are ahead in zero Democratic-held districts, and close in five Democratic-held districts. There are a few races, such as GA-08, KS-02, and KY-02, where there are no independent polls
He went back and looked at the late polls in 2004 and found that they were extremely accurate in predicting a party change in House races. Based on this analysis, it stands to reason that we will gain a huge amount of seats. He is still officially predicting a pick-up of 23-29 seats, while I am predicting a pick-up of 30-36 seats. But, looking at the numbers it seems like we are both being very conservative. That is probably because of all the things that Steven D has been warning you about.
And, when it comes to the Senate, I am very concerned that the GOP will be able to rig something to keep control. With the polls showing a slight edge for the Democrats to pick up the needed six seats, but not seven, all they need to do is steal one race (in Montana, Rhode Island, Maryland, New Jersey, Tennessee, Virginia, or Missouri). All of them are close enough to steal and explain away.
And no, I haven’t conceded Tennessee.
I read the MyDD piece and am still a doubtful voter.
but if anyone wants a real uplift, Wonkette finds Drudge is depressed?
Though I admit that I forget from time to time that you’re a believer in Ohio 2004 fraud since Steven D writes all of the posts on the subject.
If you ignore the fraud, I am more positive than the general forecasts, though a lot of that is because I really haven’t studied the issue enough to understand why so many seats are considered untouchable compared to the past. From my vague understanding of redistricting, the goal was to spread the Republican voters out over as many districts as possible with good but not insurmountable majorities, which would mean that more seats than the historical average are in play this year and the turnover could be unprecedented.
I realize that I am missing something because none of the experts who study the subject agree with me. Is it just because the advantages of incumbency are so much higher than they ever were before, or is there another explanation?
When you consider that the two main Philly districts won re-election in 2004 with over 80% of the vote and that we lost suburban districts 6,7,8 that tells you all you need to know. All our city votes are wasted so that our incumbents don’t have to campaign or be accountable, and the GOP can win in the suburbs.
Yet, the GOP has spread themselves thin in places, and they could pay for it in this election.
I’ve been doing MoveOn calls in a GOP district in Indiana over the last couple days. It’s heartening to hear the cries for change from folks who are on the right in terms of abortion and gays, but are so disgusted by Iraq, corruption, and the economy that they say they’ll be voting Dem. I think there’s ground for accommodation to rebuild the Dem coalition, not by giving in on principles, but by honest discussion with people who are not like us on many issues.
To get back on topic, I came away from the calls with a sense that Boo’s predictions may indeed be conservative. I guess what struck me most is a feeling that the tried and true GOP scams are not going to work so well this time because Bush and Congress have destroyed the good will they need to succeed. More than one person said they liked the Rep incumbent, even were grateful for favors he’d done for them, but found the national scene too sickening to vote Republican. I just don’t see any ballyhooed 72 hour plan neutralizing that.
in that I’m thinking 20-25 seats in the House, and that we’ll lose the Senate by a couple of seats…but I’d be very pleased to be proved wrong on both counts… 🙂
And I tend to think Steven D’s predictions to be mild and cautious. Far Lefties like me, we see election chaos whereever there’s an electronic machine, whereever there’s a party representative in charge of the local election commission, whereever there’s another Blackwell or Harris in power at the Secretary of State level. This is an historic election, an election to steal, to corrupt, to mess with, to take advantage of the naive and powerless condition of the American public’s passivity.
I want riots on Election Day if machines flip votes, I want riots on November 8 if the exit polls don’t match the election results!
But forget all about that. Yesterday, I was seeing a patient at my office, (yes, I work Saturdays) and he asked me, ‘um, Election Day is a national holiday, right?’ This man is 40 years old, lived in the US his entire life! Successful! Monied! Doesn’t have to work every day to live the high life! Watches cable TV!
That’s why I’m so pessimimstic about the election, about the ability of any concerned party to twist voting records, obfuscate voters, and interfere with electronic balloting, because most Americans haven’t the faintest idea that they live in a political society!
For what it’s worth, the Pew Research folks reported on Are National Polls Reliable Predictors of Midterm Elections? The conclusion is yes, even with a big decline in the number of competitive districts.