Readers of this blog may get whiplash as they jump between my optimistic and future-oriented posts and Steven D’s cautious warnings and detailings of GOP foul play. These are not inconsistent. The Dems are really riding the wave of a potentially historic landslide, and the election machinery really is horribly vulnerable and the GOP really is engaged in shenanigans. We want the front-page this way. It reflects reality. We should win big. If we don’t, we will want to detail why, and it won’t be because of Karl Rove’s brilliant turnout machine.
If you really want to understand the reason for my heady optimism, head over to MyDD and read Chris Bowers’s latest post. If that doesn’t warm your heart I don’t know what will. Here’s the key:
…according to the most recent, independent poll from individual House districts, Democrats are ahead in 37 Republican-held districts, and close in 23 Republican-held districts. By contrast, Republicans are ahead in zero Democratic-held districts, and close in five Democratic-held districts. There are a few races, such as GA-08, KS-02, and KY-02, where there are no independent polls
He went back and looked at the late polls in 2004 and found that they were extremely accurate in predicting a party change in House races. Based on this analysis, it stands to reason that we will gain a huge amount of seats. He is still officially predicting a pick-up of 23-29 seats, while I am predicting a pick-up of 30-36 seats. But, looking at the numbers it seems like we are both being very conservative. That is probably because of all the things that Steven D has been warning you about.
And, when it comes to the Senate, I am very concerned that the GOP will be able to rig something to keep control. With the polls showing a slight edge for the Democrats to pick up the needed six seats, but not seven, all they need to do is steal one race (in Montana, Rhode Island, Maryland, New Jersey, Tennessee, Virginia, or Missouri). All of them are close enough to steal and explain away.
And no, I haven’t conceded Tennessee.
