Here is the basic data on the House races. I have included the last reputable poll that is available. In all races where the Democrat is polling ahead, I have bolded those races. The candidates are ranked using Congressional Quarterly’s common wisdom. It’s interesting to see how many supposedly safe Republicans are in real trouble. My prediction remains a pick-up of 30-36 seats.
Democrats Favored
Ariz. 8 — Kolbe* (Zogby 10/29 53D-41R) +1
Leans Democrat
Colo. 7 — Beauprez* (SurveyUSA 10/31 53D-38R) +2
Fla. 16 — vacant* (RT Strategies 10/13 48D-41R) +3
Ind. 8 — Hostettler (RT Strategies 10/26 53D-43R)+4
N.Y. 26 — Reynolds (SurveyUSA 11/3 46D-50R)
Ohio 18 — vacant* (Zogby 10/29 53D-33R)
Pa. 7 — Weldon (Benenson 10/24 50D-43R) +5
Pa. 10 — Sherwood (Lycoming College 10/26 47D-38R) +6
Texas 22 — vacant* (Zogby 10/25 36D-28R) +7
Toss-Up
Ariz. 1 — Renzi (RT Strategies 10/26 38D-41R)
Ariz. 5 — Hayworth (SurveyUSA 10/31 48D-46R) +8
Conn. 4 — Shays (Zogby 10/29 51D-44R) +9
Conn. 5 — Johnson (Research 2000 10/29 46D-43R) +10
Fla. 13 — Harris* (RT Strategies 10/26 49D-47R) +11
Fla. 22 — Shaw (RT Strategies 10/26 50D-48R) +12
Ill. 6 — Hyde* (Zogby 10/29 54D-40R) +13
Iowa 1 — Nussle* (Selzer & Co. 11/3 56D-35R) +14
Ind. 2 — Chocola (Research 2000 10/31 50D-47R) +15
Ind. 9 — Sodrel (SurveyUSA 11/2 44D-46R)
Minn. 6 — Kennedy* (SurveyUSA 11/3 42D-49R)
N.C. 11 — Taylor (OnPoint 11/1 52D-43R) +16
N.H. 2 — Bass (Research 2000 11/2 46D-47R)
N.M. 1 — Wilson (Poll & Research 11/2 49D-45R) +17
N.Y. 20 — Sweeney (RT Strategies 10/26 53D-42R) +18
N.Y. 24 — Boehlert* (RT Strategies 10/10 52D-43R) +19
Ohio 1 — Chabot (RT Strategies 10/26 48D-46R) +20
Ohio 2 — Schmidt (SurveyUSA 10/31 48D-46R) +21
Ohio 15 — Pryce (RT Strategies 10/10 53D-41R) +22
Pa. 6 — Gerlach (Zogby 10/29 49D-44R) +23
Pa. 8 — Fitzpatrick (Global Strategies 10/30 46D-41R) +24
Wash. 8 — Reichert (SurveyUSA 10/30 45D-51R)
Wis. 8 — Green* (RT Research 10/26 51D-45R) +25
Wyo. AL — Cubin (Aspen Media 10/25 40D-44R)
Leans Republican
Calif. 4 — Doolittle (SurveyUSA 11/2 43D-50R)
Calif. 11 — Pombo (RT Strategies 10/26 48D-46R) +26
Calif. 50 — Bilbray (SurveyUSA 11/3 41D-55R)
Colo. 4 — Musgrave (SurveyUSA 11/2 43D-44R)
Conn. 2 — Simmons (Research 2000 10/30 48D-47R) +27
Idaho 1 — Otter* (Greg Smith & Assoc. 11/1 38D-34D) +28
Ky. 3 — Northup (Survey USA 11/1 52D-44R) +29
Ky. 4 — Davis (Zogby 10/29 45D-42R) +30
Minn. 1 — Gutknecht (RT Strategies 10/26 47D-50R)
Neb. 1 — Fortenberry (Momentum Analysis 11/2 38D-43R)
Neb. 3 — Osborne* (no polling)
Nev. 2 — Gibbons* (Mason-Dixon 10/30 39D-47R)
Nev. 3 — Porter (Mason-Dixon 10/30 39D-46R)
N.J. 7 — Ferguson (RT Strategies 10/26 43D-46R)
N.Y. 19 — Kelly (RT Strategies 10/26 49D-47R) +31
N.Y. 29 — Kuhl (RT Strategies 10/26 53D-42R) +32
Pa. 4 — Hart (RT Strategies 10/26 47D-51R)
Va. 2 — Drake (Zogby 10/29 43D-51R)
Republicans Favored
Colo. 5 — Hefley* (SurveyUSA 11/2 42D-51R)
Iowa 2 — Leach (RT Strategies 10/26 48D-50R)
Fla. 8 — Keller (no polling)
Fla. 9 — Bilirakis* (SurveyUSA 11/3 41D-53R)
Ill. 10 — Kirk (RT Strategies 10/26 48D-46R) +33
Ind. 3 — Souder (Research 2000 40D-52R)
Kan. 2 — Ryun (Cooper & Seacrest 10/8 41D-45R)
Ky. 2 — Lewis (Voter Consumer 10/31 36D-51R)* outlier
La. 7 — Boustany (no polling)
Md. 6 — Bartlett (no polling)
Mich. 7 — Schwarz* (no polling)
Mich. 8 — Rogers (no polling)
Minn. 2 — Kline (no polling)
N.C. 8 — Hayes (RT Strategies 10/26 48D-44R) +34
N.H. 1 — Bradley (Research 2000 11/2 40D-48R)
N.J. 5 — Garrett (no polling)
N.Y. 3 — King (RT Strategies 10/26 44D-51R)
N.Y. 13 — Fossella (no polling)
N.Y. 25 — Walsh (RT Strategies 10/26 53D-44R) +35
Ohio 12 — Tiberi (RT Strategies 10/26 46D-51R)
Texas 23 — Bonilla (no polling)
Va. 10 — Wolf (RT Strategies 10/10 42D-47R)
Wash. 5 — McMorris (RT Strategies 10/26 46D-51R)
W.Va. 2 — Capito (no polling)
