James Carville gave a speech this morning. Here is some of what he said.
Breezing through his standard roster of jokes (Mary Matalin and estrogen, Howard Dean, Dan Quayle), James Carville, one of politics’ most successful consultants and one of Bill Clinton’s best friends, pronounced the 2006 election “pretty predictable.”
But, he said, “The most disturbing thing to me as a Democrat was that this was the third election cycle in a row that Republicans have closed better than us. Wherever we were on Friday before, we were not as good on Election Day.”
The “most positive thing,” he said: “the thing that reaches out and slaps you across the face is 18-t0-30s. I think we won them about 61 to 39. Way Way better than any other age group. If you’re a political party, you’d rather have [that age group] because they tend to be around longer.”
“There is no clear Republican frontrunner,” which Carville calls an historical anomaly. Not since 1940 has the Republican Party not annointed its standardbearer years in advance. Republicans, Carville said, aren’t used to divisive, competitive primaries.
Another historical anomaly: “We’re going to have five larger-than-life candidates running for President. McCain, Giuliani, Hillary Clinton, Obama and Al Gore. And you want to make it interesting, you might have Newt Gingrich in it.”
The rest of the fields: “It’s hard to see them as president.”
“Giuliani and McCain are larger than life people. They’re not the most temperate men I know. Maybe we’ll have a little fisticuffs. In the long, freezing cold, irritating saga of the campaign, we know many delicious things are going to happen.”
On Hillary Clinton’s potential campaign: “I don’t think I’m going to work on it, but I’ll be helpful where I can.”
I have a little quiz for you. When was the last time the Republicans fielded a Presidential slate that didn’t have a Bush or a Dole on it? Think about it for a minute and I’ll give you the answer below the fold.
It’s interesting that Carville just assumes that Al Gore will again run for the presidency. I don’t think Gore will and I don’t think Carville knows any different. I basically agree with his assessment of the candidates. McCain and Guiliani have star power. But they are also abrasive personalities. Any tussle between them would get pretty interesting. Romney looks like a President, but that is probably not enough. It’s impossible to picture any other Republican winning the nomination and becoming President. I do think, however, that Newt Gingrich will do very well in Republican primaries. I don’t know how well he will do, but he certainly is going to appeal to a lot of bedrock conservatives that mistrust McCain and don’t agree with Guiliani on social issues. For Gingrich to win, the national environment needs to be just right. Republicans will have to be simultaneously willing to overlook Newt’s rather glaring blemishes (including ethical ones) and willing to stick to principle over any practical or ‘electability’ concerns. Those two factors may seem mutually exclusive, but with the right mood, Newt could thread the needle.
He can blunt the ethical problem by pointing out the rather glaring ethical problems of John McCain (Keating 5) and Guiliani (Bernie Kerik). Newt is smart as a whip and a great debater. He’ll never become President, but he might just win his party’s nomination (but only if they are not in a mood to win).
As for the Democrats, there is a very large field. And all of the candidates are viable on some level. I definitely think Hillary can win it all, but not without hurting Democrats running all throughout red America. The country might just be in the mood to give Al Gore the job they tried to give him in 2000. As for Obama, he has potential but seems like more a VP candidate. The question is whether anyone else (Edwards?) can get any traction. My biggest regret is that the netroots do not have a candidate to rally around so that we can flex our muscles.
The last time the Republicans fielded a Presidential slate that did not include a Bush or a Dole was the Nixon-Agnew ticket of 1972.