Big news from the former Soviet Union:
Turkmenistan’s President-for-life Saparmurat Niyazov died suddenly on Thursday after 21 years of iron rule, raising a risk of political instability in the energy-rich country that some feared could have an impact on Europe’s gas supplies.
Niyazov, 66, who crushed all dissent in his reclusive state and basked in a unique and bizarre personality cult while ruling a country with huge natural gas reserves, died overnight of cardiac arrest, state television said.
Though isolated by Niyazov’s policies, Turkmenistan is a vital link in the supply chain between former Soviet gas fields and European Union consumers since it meets the demands of the huge Ukrainian market, freeing up Russian gas for Europe.
Some analysts saw prospects of a power struggle that could thrust Turkmenistan into a period of political uncertainty.
“I expect there will be a massive fight for power now in Turkmenistan and it’s likely to take place between pro-U.S. and pro-Russian forces,” said a Russian gas industry source, who declined to be named. “Gas will become the main coin of exchange and the key asset to get hold of.”
Looks like Dick Cheney and his pals are having an busy morning.
Maybe Borat isn’t too busy to stop by and help out the Turkmenistanis.
there are a couple of good diaries on this in orange, here and here. Thanks BooMan for the map.
I have a nagging memory knocking around my head of a quote from, I think, Clauswitz. The idea is that geography is destiny. The map in the story tells it all. Turkmenistan shares a border with Iran and Afghanistan. It has a coastline on the Caspian Sea. I suspect that Iranian forces are probably moving to the border. I also suspect that we have or are building airbases in western Afghanistan that can quickly receive troops and equipment. In addition to the crucial question of the natural gas supplies raised above, Turkmenistan has all the makings of a proxy battleground between Russia, the US, and Iraq. Cheney and his boys are no doubt reliving their glory days, pushing the model humvees, planes, Tanks, and personnel to seal off the northern border of Iran.
Christmas is a great time for sneaky moves in countries most people never heard of. I wonder if we’ll ever know what Niyazov suddenly died of? And I wonder who will be the Chalabi of Turkmenistan?
i’m afraid the map doesn’t tell it all if that’s what you get from just looking at a map.
what everyone wants in turkmenistan is stability. it’s too close to the oil regions of kazakhstan, borders the powder-keg of afghanistan, and iran has a huge stake in keeping its northern border stable with the the countries along its other two big borders coming apart at their seams. meanwhile, both russian and american big business has huge natural gas interests in the country.
it doesn’t suit anyone’s purposes for this place to turn into any sort of battle ground. that doesn’t mean it won’t. it’s a dangerous place not because of geography, but because of the bizzare personality cult turkmenbashi built there and the lack of any clear rules for succession