Via Goddards’, we can see the growing importance of the Hispanic vote. The Electoral College will be an even harder nut to crack for Democrats in 2012.
According to a new Election Data Services prediction, if the 2010 reapportionment were held today, six states would gain one seat apiece in the House of Representatives — Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, and
Utah — and Texas would gain two seats. Those seats would come from seven states losing one seat each — Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.“The states of Georgia, Nevada, Louisiana, and Massachusetts are new states [this year] on the list of changes.”
Dems are going to need to compete in Arizona and Nevada.
By that time (2010) there will likely be more seats going south, BUT by then the 50 State Strategy should be entrenched philosophy. This is not a big issue, unless the Democratic party begins to implode in the same way that the GOP is right now. And that is a real possibility, IMHO, if faux “centrism” continues to rear its ugly head. But that is a bit of a different battle, though still connected to the 50 State Strategy.
Yes? No? Maybe?
This observation is hardly a surprise. But, honestly speaking, should the Democrats consider the losses in Iowa, Louisiana, and Missouri dead losses anyway. Those states haven’t been any more reliable for Democrats than Nevada, Arizona or Florida. In many respects, that population shift just jeopardizes the Republican hold on Florida and Arizona more than anything else. Utah is the only state which the Republicans could consider a bastion state anyway, along with possibly Texas. Texas may not be much of a problem in the long run with all of its Republican officials more than likely doing prison time because of certain election “improprieties.”
I tried to get into Electoral College but I just didn’t have the grades.
To be competitive, Democrats need state infrastructure. Thanks to Zell Miller, until Dean’s 50 state strategy the Georgia Democratic infrastructure was almost gone.
Democrats are going to need to make the GOP focus on defending Georgia, Texas, Florida, and Utah.
And North Carolina was raised to the 10th most populous state in the nation, displacing New Jersey. In the next four years, there might be a shift of electoral votes increasing North Carolina’s as well. And the Hispanic vote is becoming a factor in NC. As is the populist “fix the economy, dammit” vote.
It would be interesting to note the data about what is driving population up in these states. If its a matter of people moving there from “blue” states or a rise in the number of immigrants – might not be so much to worry about.
It seems to me that this north/south red/blue divide will continue to shift with the increasing mobility of the population.
I have a friend who’s parents moved to South Carolina (I think that’s the state, but I know it is one of the “redder” southern states). When she went to register to vote as she got her driver’s license, the clerk asked her if she was registering as a Democrat or Republican. When she responded “Democrat,” the clerk brought her hands together in prayer mode, looked up, and whispered “Thank God.”