It’s interesting to see how far ahead Rudy Guiliani is in the race for the Republican nomination.
On the Republican side, Giuliani crushes McCain, 44-21. Without Gingrich, he leads by a whopping 53-23. There isn’t a single national poll where Giuliani doesn’t hold a strong lead right now, and all of the trend lines favor him. And just in case anyone had any lingering doubts as to whether or not conservative, white evangelicals are actually issue voters:
The principal reason was a shift among white evangelical Protestants, who now clearly favor Giuliani over McCain. Giuliani gained among this group of Americans despite his support of abortion rights and gay rights, two issues of great importance to religious conservatives. McCain opposes abortion rights.
They love the guy who disagrees with them. I have to second what Matt wrote on this one:
Like a lot of us, he thinks that Republicans base their political judgment on issues, ie. gay rights, abortion, national defense, taxes, etc. He makes the same mistake that a lot of Democrats make, assuming that conservatives think the way that we do. They don’t. They are authoritarians. Gay marriage, abortion, taxes, national security, none of it really matters to them. What they are looking for is an authoritarian to look like he’s taking charge, and the way an authoritarian takes charge is to attack liberals and stomp on people who aren’t like them. Giuliani did this in New York, so he’s a rock star in Alabama.
That sounds about right to me. Of course, considering Clinton’s lead among war opponents, many Democrats might not be all that different.
Most people don’t know anything about Rudy Guiliani except that he was the mayor of New York City on 9/11. It’s hard to estimate how much that helps him, but considering the scared-rabbit behavior of our President that day, the contrast of an extremely able and reassuring Guiliani must count for a tremendous amount. I know it counts for a lot with me. Guiliani knows how to keep his head, and we already know that about him. We don’t know that about any of the other candidates.
Does that mean that people are drawn to authoritarians? That might be a little strong. People are drawn to leaders that know how to handle authority. After the catastrophic incompetence of the Bush administration, the ability to handle a crisis, like 9/11 or Hurricane Katrina, is an important consideration for the electorate.
It will be interesting to see how Rudy fares when people become more familiar with his positions on social issues and his checkered personal life. But, personally, I’d be encouraged if Republicans were willing to put aside their xenophobia, homophobia, and paternalism and select someone like Guiliani. It would mean that the hold of evangelicanism over the party is grossly exaggerated.
Having said that, Guiliani would be a dreadful President. But so would the entire rest of the Republican field.