It’s totally unrealistic, but I think the netroots would make more progress for the country if we ignored the Presidential race and even the Senate races, and just focused on electing progressives to local, state, and House races. But, obviously, people are going to be most interested in the presidency. The problem for the netroots is that we don’t have a champion in the race.
If there is any kind of consensus at all, that consensus is that it would be a shame if Hillary Clinton won the nomination. It’s a little harder to answer why there is this anti-Hillary feeling. Part of it is over her vote authorizing force in Iraq. But that alone doesn’t distinguish her from Kerry, Edwards, Biden, or Dodd. Her refusal to apologize for that vote or call it a mistake isn’t helpful for those that would otherwise be inclined to forgive her, but that doesn’t explain the anti-Hillary feeling either.
There are some other factors at play. Electing a Clinton feels a little like electing a monarch. There is also an element of Clinton fatigue. No one wants to discuss Bill’s sex life. And there is concern that Hillary is so polarizing that she will hurt the Democrats chances in many areas of the country. All of this is a concern. But the real issue with Hillary is her close relationship with the Democratic Leadership Council. And the DLC has emerged in the Bush years as an opponent of the netroots and an opponent of Howard Dean, the 50-State plan, and all the different organizations that have spun out of Dean’s campaign.
It isn’t only the DLC that is hostile to the netroots. Outfits like The New Republic have also made themselves into enemies of the netroots. They work very hard to marginalize us and paint us as radicals. We also receive this treatment from the bigfoot press. Reporters like Adam Nagourney, David Broder, Richard Cohen, Thomas Friedman, and Joe Klein have all used their columns and articles to slam the netroots. Their most typical attacks aim to paint us as radicals that will lead the Democrats astray by pushing them too far to the left. Our biggest sin is in pushing the Democrats to oppose the war and do something to end it.
This has been the case ever since Howard Dean first questioned the wisdom of invading Iraq and it continues to be the case even after the bloodletting of the midterms.
Hillary Clinton is the representative of this common wisdom. You will hear her allies mouth these talking points over and over again. There is simply no way for us to make common cause with her because her operation is so fundamentally opposed to what we do and they do not think and never have thought that opposing this war was politically acceptable.
In spite of this reality, which is quite clear to most inhabitants of the blogosphere, Hillary Clinton remains enormously popular among rank and file Democrats. Her favorability among Democrats is 87%-10%. And, as Chris Bowers points out, Hillary is not only leading in the polls, but she is also leading as people’s second choice.
Bowers argues that Clinton is so strong that she can only be defeated by a large field of candidates. Since she is the second choice for supporters of Edwards and Obama, if either dropped out it would benefit Clinton.
He also argues that Edwards and Obama supporters should not tear each other down because they need both candidates to be strong for either to have any chance at beating Clinton. In other words, Edwards and Obama supporters should call a truce as part of a larger anti-Hillary strategy.
It’s nice advice but not very realistic. Campaigns cannot control their supporters like that. In my opinion, there isn’t any prospect of the netroots coalescing behind a single alternative to Hillary. Nor is there any prospect that supporters of Richardson will play nice with supporters of Obama or vice-versa.
But there is one thing that everyone that doesn’t support Hillary can do. And that is to take down her favorables among rank and file Democrats. If she maintains an 87-10 split there is no way she can lose.
But there are still problems with this. First of all, many of the typical attacks on Hillary are unfair. For example, she is definitely electable. She is definitely capable and qualified. Which leads me to my second point. Hillary is still the most likely Democratic nominee. And we don’t want to do the Republicans work for them by spreading mean-spirited and unfair attacks on our most likely nominee.
This all makes for a potentially toxic stew where the left and the netroots tears itself apart. I actually predict that this will happen for all the reasons I’ve laid out. I don’t think there is anyway it can be avoided as long as Hillary is ahead in the polls and is considered the clear front-runner. For me, this makes it all the more important that she doesn’t win the nomination.
And to be absolutely clear, I do not want Hillary Clinton to be our nominee but I don’t think she would be a bad President. Aside from his poor judgment with Monica Lewinsky, I don’t think her husband was a bad President. I have a lot of problems with individual policies that Clinton pursued, but when I compare him to other recent Presidents I have to give him high marks. I don’t think a Hillary presidency would be the end of the world. But I do hope we can do better. And I intend to oppose her candidacy because I think we need to move in a much different direction as a nation. I’m not sure that any of the candidates are likely to move in the directions I would like. But I know Hillary won’t. And it’s impossible to work with a campaign that sees us as the enemy.
And, yes, Paul Begala and James Carville should step down from their jobs at CNN unless they’re are prepared to appear with a big I SUPPORT HILLARY stamped on their foreheads.
I have posted diaries on a local Louisiana race here, but no one bothered to recommend it. I can repost it if you want, as it is a very important race. Just let me know.
But what if I support Clinton over Obama? What if I support other candidates over Obama, who I argue is a machine candidate?
But the real issue with Hillary is her close relationship with the Democratic Leadership Council. And the DLC has emerged in the Bush years as an opponent of the netroots and an opponent of Howard Dean, the 50-State plan, and all the different organizations that have spun out of Dean’s campaign.
Bingo. That’s why i can’t and won’t support her.
I’ve worked hard, we’ve all worked too hard, to have the DLC tear everything down.
I also have a difficult time supporting triangulators, which is why Obama and Hillary are not in my top four.
so what’s your plan?
touche. I think we should smash the state.
kidding, kidding.
I’m not interested, quite frankly, in any of the presidential candidates. I think that they’re all prepackaged, phoney, and uninteresting. They all kind of remind me of Chaka Fattah. Lots of buzzwords, not so much on substance.
I’m more interested in House races, which is where I’m putting my energy.
I won’t NOT support the nominee (unless it’s biden, fuck him), but it’s hard for me to get really excited enough about this crop.
As a democrat I believe my time is better spent on party building over the next 2 years, and as a progressive in shoving the Overton Window as far to the left as I can in the suburban congressional district I live in.
I think you’re making too much of the early, meaningless polls. Hillary unquestionably has the name recognition at this point, and that’s about all that’s being measured. She’s trying hard to remake her image. So far it ain’t working for me. We’ll see if she’s able to hold onto her early advantage. I see her as having a 50-50 shot at the nomination. If she makes it I’ll have a hard time voting for her.
Of course I’m completely bewildered by the diehard Bill worshipers among Dems, so my predictive abilities may be even lower than their usual dismalness.
I recall Obama’s hostile diary at DailyKos as well as his dismissive comment about DailyKos in the New Yorker interview. I guess Obama is also opposed to the netroots.
got links to your references?
Here is the diary he posted at DailyKos.
And here is his condescending quote regarding DailyKos:
Interesting. I had never seen that before.
I disagree with some of what you say. I do not think Hillary is all that strong. it’s illusion. She has big money and a machine but, she is not a strong candidate. I see her sliding down on a steady scale. She is novelty right now to the mainstream and they don’t really know the others that well.
I actually see Obama getting stronger and stronger. He is someone people come from all over to see. To stand in 10 degrees or rain and not mind it.
No one brings crowds of 7000 to 22,000 to rallies but, obama.
And they keep coming.
Hillary is novelty and people come to see her but, she excites no one. Even Bill wears after awhile. You just keep thinking, 90s. it’s nice to see and hear Bill but, he gets tiresome after awhile.
Did you know he had a fundraiser in Ohio a couple months ago and about 600 showed up.
Obama was there the other day and over a 1000 came. they had to turn people away.
The anti Hillary is her personality. It’s all the other things but, her personality is the fatal flaw. She has that kind of personality you just cannot like no matter what. she is just too everything. Not someone you warm up to or get excited seeing.
Don’t spend too much time on this Presidential nominee riddle because all logic, IMO (can you say these two things together at one time??), dictates it will be Gore. He is positioning himself beyond reach of anyone else! He will be a sure winner unless he picks a stupid choice for VP candidate, which won’t happen again!
He will sit back and let the others exhaust themselves, and then come out much later as the white horse, do not wrong candidate that saves the day.
So let it be written, so let it be done!
But I agree with Booman, it doesn’t look like anyone else can do it. Obama’s got real momentum at the moment, but it would take a couple of F.U.s more before I start believing he could beat Hil; she’s got lots more experience not only in the governing realm, but more importantly in campaigning. Carville seems to be more deadweight than magic these days, but the two Clintons together bring so much savvy to the game that it’ll take a lot more than early hype and interest to swing things Obama way.
And Edwards is probably not far from peaking, he already has high name recognition from 04 and the best he can pull isn’t even half what Hil has.
So that leaves Gore. I don’t think he’s trying to position himself per se, but as has been pointed out a million times, he can certainly afford to keep on like he’s been doing and not even make a commitment until much further down the line. I used to think there was a strategy at play here, but I’ve since come to the conclusion that he really wasn’t planning to run.
When you throw in the coming fight between the DLC and the netroots, though, if the stakes are as high as Booman states in this piece, Gore might intervene to prevent that from happening. It would have to be a pretty drastic situation, though; it can’t be easy overcoming the loyalty hurdles to mount a challenge against The Clintons. I don’t think he’d do it unless he really felt there was no choice.
And so far that can’t be conclusively argued.
He’s polls less well with Democrats and in general matchups. He can’t match her political contacts or her fundraising. His excellent work with global warming has given him a platform and his antiwar stand would help, but based on the polling, it’s just not enough. And, by waiting, he’s ensured that the top advisers, pollsters, etc., are all working for other candidates. By every indication we have, if he joined in he’d been in the Obama-Edwards tier – credible but far behind Hillary.
There is nothing like on the job experience. Gore has listened to the advisers and lost. Look at these same advisers now telling Hillary how to coast through without real commitment to anything. Gore’s biggest forte now is that he sees that being himself and letting is innate intellectual talents run his agenda will win him enough support, especially in light of the unintelligent actions of Mr. Bush and company.
I predict Gore will not have to make the choice to run because the heart of the Democratic party will come to him one day and demand it. Good thing too because he is what we need now more than anything in this country, and I am not saying that as a political supporter of anyone!.
You express a lot of my thoughts here. I also hope we can do better. Beyond the sense of entitlement, Hillary’s DLC stances are just so far from my own, and the divide seems to keep growing. I supported the Clinton presidency wholeheartedly at the time, had a favorable opinion of Hillary as she ran for Senator, and as a long-time feminist, I would love to see a woman President. It really tugs at me that I can’t find good reasons to support the first woman who appears to be electable. Hillary is clearly as qualified as the next candidate.
But, for lots of reasons I just can’t get excited about her candidacy. The 2004 election opened my eyes to a lot of the behind-the-scenes backbiting and sabotage. Those who haven’t been able to get behind Howard Dean when he is clearly acting with his best instincts to help the Democratic Party, and those who are feverishly working against Dean’s efforts just totally lose me these days. I count Hillary in that category.
If she gets the nomination, she’s clearly going to be better than any of the Republicans on deck. But, I hope someone else gets the Democratic nomination.
Yes, that’s the deal. Although Hillary is smart, qualified, etc.– there’s just too much ickiness connected with her. The DLC, her vote on the war, her reaching out to Murdoch (gag), and for sure Geffen knows the Clintons better than I do. But I do remember Clinton looking directly at the camera to say sincerely, that he did not have sex with that woman. And Hillary being very explicit when she was running for the Senate (the first time) saying she had no interest in the presidency. I know that a lot of my friends, hard core Democractic activists, bloggers and fund-raisers are saying that they’ll vote for her if she’s nominated but no one is going to do the grunt work for her. Forget canvassing. Forget the gazillion donations to the DNC, etc. Forget GOTV stuff. The people on the ground are just not going to knock themselves out for her. We just want to get away from Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton Carville Matalin Begala….. Enough already.
Hillary’s not too popular in the netroots. But, she’s vey popular with Democrats in general, because most of the reasons the netroots doesn’t like her (excessive familiarity, centrist leanings, choice of advisers) are either neutral or even positive to Dem voters. Most people like the familiar, especially after a nasty experience like the Bush years, and Hillary’s liberalness is well-matched to your typical Democrat.
So – and I think this is Booman’s point – what can be done to change Dem voter’s minds on Hillary? Accusations like “Republican lite” and “wants to bomb Iran” are DOA in the public; she’s a very loyal Dem and her attitudes towards war are mainstream and popular. Insisting she’s a bad candidate because she associates with people who oppose 50-state will just make people look at you funny – that’s way too wonkish for the general public.
Picking on her negatives or her wishiwashiness could potentially work but I think as Chris Bower implies, that it has to be phrased to make another candidate seem significantly better than her. At this point, Hillary’s clearly acceptable to the vast majority of Dems in spite of these deficits (which everybody knows about). You can’t sell her as unacceptable, you have to sell somebody else as better.
If she’s not going to be stopped, then we need to start thinking about a Hillary candidacy. That means a) canning the smears and b) thinking about how to achieve progressive goals with her as a candidate and (hopefully) president. I think Congress becomes more important with Hillary as I see her as a “sail with the wind type”. Hillary will IMO be more of the administrator the Founders envisioned for the Presidency. Congress will set the tone and make the changes.
The right-wing has beaten Hillary up so badly and for so long that the majority of low information voters will assume she is a far-left candidate until informed otherwise. And she actually will benefit from people being informed otherwise (in the general election). That’s all the more reason to inform people otherwise. It helps her in the general and can potentially derail her in the primaries.
and I see a lot of advantage in pointing out that Hillary doesn’t hold a lot of real leftist stands like no pre-emptive war or single-payer healthcare. I don’t see that derailing her in the primaries, though. Remember, about half of Dems aren’t liberals. Her positions are (probably intentionally) well-calibrated to being generally acceptable to Democrats and electable in a general election.
I think Hillary’s greatest weakness is that 2008 is likely to be a message election, and that Hillary is a poor message carrier. She’s too eager to compromise, not a rousing speaker, has a painfully tangled history on Iraq, and is involved in too many distracting past controversies. Edwards and Obama, by contrast, are both good message carriers with none of these weaknesses. I think this message will resonate with Dems, not hurt her in the general, and can be used in the Dem primaries without her many supporters concluding the netroots has lost its mind.
not sure why this is unrealistic– it’s one of the better ideas I’ve seen in a while.
I would add only this– focusing on local, state and House races with the objective of getting the senate and executive branch to be accountable to the people again instead of only the big corporations who are running the circus now.
in other words– you’d have to make it clear to the useless lifer politician types in the senate; “we’re coming after you next if you don’t start serving all of the people”.
I just mean that it is unrealistic to think that we could ignore the presidential race. It’s the biggest political story out there and people want to read about it and write about it and talk about it.
So, the netroots is definitely going to be immersed in the race. On the other hand, there are tons of organizations and blogging sites that are springing up everywhere that will handle the more local stuff.
Got it, and thx for your response.
IMHO, the presidential race should be more or less ignored at this point– the cycle started wayy too early this time. that fact should not overshadow other important issues, like the fact our economy may implode soon, or Israel dropping bunker busters on Iran with our help.
but tell me– shouldn’t the goal of the net/grass roots movement be to build a pool of better representatives to put into the senate and the white house?
yeah…I think so.
The way I see it, we can do the best work by working on the House of Representatives. The Senate is so incredibly conservative. Look at the list of New Democrats in the Senate:
Shit. That’s a third of the total Democrats in the Senate. And there are others like Schumer, Casey, and Webb that are annoying on one level or another. We can’t change the make-up of the Senate very easily.
But the house is different. Its biggest bloc is the progressive caucus. It’s roughly the size of the New Dems and the Blue Dogs combined.
Progressives dominate the chairmanships. Take a look (and I probably missed a couple).
FOX news is the biggest reason I am against Hillary Clinton as candidate.
Months ago, long before anybody had started forming exploratory committees and everybody was denying that they had any plans to begin a campaign, FOX was blatantly proclaiming that (and this is a paraphrase in the extreme sense of the word) that “of course Hillary is going to be the Democratic candidate for the 2008 Presidential election.”
Maybe it is just me, but when FOX tells me something is a sure thing, I get a very strong sense that somebody is whispering it in their ear very loudly. And to my mind, that could very likely be the Republican talking point machine.
Like they really wanted Hillary Clinton to be the candidate, because they knew that she would be easy to steamroll at the polls.
I’m not a politics expert, but that is the feeling I got instantly when I heard this stuff on FOX.
The only problem I have with President Bill Clinton’s presidency, is NAFTA. Ross Perot was right about the giant sucking sound. Clinton helped set in motion the process that has resulted in many jobs being lost here, and the remarkable success of the Walton family and US-Chinese trade. And we increasingly don’t know how to make things here.
Face it, the conservatives are badly out of touch with reality. Who cares what a bunch of fools thinks is a best or worse course for us? We need to make decisions based on reality, not by second-guessing the opinions of lunatics.
Also available in orange.
I agree entirely with your summary paragraph. Senator Clinton won’t do what I’d like my new president to do: stop the saber rattling and generally mind our own business in the world, institute single-payer universal health insurance, and raise taxes.
But she does stand a good chance of winning the Democratic nomination, she’s clearly much superior to any Republican running or waiting in the wings, and I’m not going to help the Foxes shred her.
I’m not yet committed to a candidate but am leaning toward Obama. I’ll be talking and writing pro-Obama (or whomever) and not anti-Hillary.
I think it is a setup. Hill’s being pushed, and further, I think she is being inflated in the commercial media.
As for busting the netroots, one look at the mumbo-jumbo surrounding the the opening of the NYT’s Swampland tells us the commercial media is not about to be upstaged by the blogs, at least in their own minds. Further on this, I thought the back handed quip that Ezra gave to Atrios in a piece about someone like Matt Bai being at a disadvantage against “some dude who runs a ‘wanker of the day’ contest” was more telling than Ezra thinks.
We in the left blogosphere are in danger of being “Madison Avenued to death.” Since the DLC backs Senator Clinton, and has been stung hard by the netroots I think Senator Clinton will be stupid and allow the Carville types to try and wreck the netroots while sucking up to the commercial media types.
Further, I think Chairman Dean will be asked to leave if Clinton is nominated. The DLC is Republican Lite, and Dean’s 50 state program has been attacked by Carville, Begala, and such.
I will make a grim prediction. If Senator Clinton is nominated, we will lose both the Presidency and the Senate too. This is the plan. Play to Hill’s titanic ego, pump her up with bogus and puffed polls, fill her with self-confidence, and poison her candidacy with continuous attacks from the far right loonies like Limbaugh, Hannity and Beck, with the media playing cheerleader and assassin at the same time, you know, ‘this one says/that one says’ garbage.