Tonight’s Republican debate will be held at Ronald Reagan’s Presidential Library. It will have ten Republicans all vying for more than 10 seconds of television exposure. Let me see if I can name them all off the top of my head. Let’s see, we have anti-immigration fanatic Tom Tancredo, advocate of torture and rice pilaf Duncan Hunter, serial adulterer Rudolph Guiliani, Keating 5 John McCain, hunter of rodents Mitt Romney, Caspian Gas Man Sam Brownback, Mike ‘buy my wedding gifts from Target’ Huckabee, Tommy ‘I’m earning money, you know that’s sort of part of the Jewish tradition’ Thompson, ex-Virginia Govenor Jim Gilmore, and libertarian Ron Paul. I think that covers it.
I don’t expect there to be much news coming out of this debate. There are too many candidates for there to be any good back and forth. But the very fact that there is a debate is highly significant and will change the whole political dynamic in Washington DC.
We’re already in a highly unusual political environment with no one from the White House running for president. The last time this happened was in 1952, when Adlai Stevenson squared off against Dwight D. Eisenhower. Combine this with a President that is incredibly unpopular and a Republican party that just had its collective ass handed to it in the 2006 midterm elections. The pressure on the GOP hopefuls to disassociate themselves from Bush is immense.
What will happen if Chris Matthews asks them about Alberto Gonzales? Will they trip over each other condemning Bush’s decision to retain him? Or, will they all hew the Rovian line?
That’s the problem for Bush. He has been able to maintain an unholy amount of message discipline from the GOP caucus. But Karl Rove has little, and diminishing, hold over the presidential aspirants. Once the horse leaves the barn (and it will tonight) there is no hope of corralling it.
I think we will be able to look back at tonight as a real turning point, where Bush went from unpopular to a total lame duck. This is a price Bush will pay for not only doing an incredibly bad job, but for not grooming an heir apparent.
Looking back at 1988, George H.W. Bush wisely decided to run as a third-term for Reagan. Even more, he was so implicated in Iran-Contra that the whole party was willing to circle the wagons and insulate him by quashing the investigation. None of the Republicans running for president has any interest in covering up Bush’s crimes and incompetence, nor do they have any interest in running on a more-of-the-same platform.
I don’t know that we will see any stark manifestations of this dynamic tonight. I guess it will depend on the questions that are asked. It may be barely perceptible. But, I am sure of one thing: Karl Rove cannot control the message once these 10 Republicans walk onto that stage tonight. And that means trouble for the Bush administration and for GOP cohesiveness.
