This may be significant, or it may not be significant. But Joe Klein notices an historical pattern in his pro-Hillary column in Time today.
There have been six elections in which control of the presidency has switched parties during the television age. In five of those six, starting with John F. Kennedy’s victory over Richard Nixon in 1960, the less experienced candidate won. The other four were: Jimmy Carter over Gerald Ford in 1976, Ronald Reagan over Carter in 1980, Bill Clinton over Bush the Elder in 1992, Bush the Younger over Al Gore in 2000. The one exception to the rule was a toss-up: Nixon and Hubert Humphrey had similar levels of experience in 1968. This sort of pattern may have deep significance. It may mean that when Americans want change, they want a powerful fresh gust of it. Or it may mean nothing at all in wartime.
He also makes a good point, here:
Clinton’s national-security expertise should be no small advantage in an election that may well take place in the midst of a war. But it is likely to take a backseat to a more prominent question about experience–whether eight years as First Lady qualifies one to be President of the United States. And to a more cosmic experience-related question than that: whether, after 20 years of Bushes and Clintons in the White House, we want to keep trading our most precious office back and forth between these two extremely strange families.
I think Klein has hit on the two meta issues that will have the biggest effect on Hillary’s chances. The first is likely to take its toll in the primaries, and the second in the general (if she prevails in the primaries).
Democrats will have to decide whether we want a big plate of change, or we want a restoration. If we decide on a restoration, the country will probably see the Republican candidate as a change candidate, and possibly as the change candidate.
These are indeed meta issues. They lack substance and ignore the unique qualifications of individual politicians. But that doesn’t make them unimportant. Meta issues tend to dominate in most presidential elections.
