I keep having this fantasy about absolutely wiping the Republicans out in the 2008 Senate races. And the main reason that I have this recurring fantasy is because the Republicans seem so incredibly vulnerable. So, let’s look at the races.
Colorado- (Open) Wayne Allard, R- Wayne Allard is retiring. Mark Udall is the Democratic contender. The Republicans have not been able to come up with a serious replacement. Colorado has been trending Democratic in recent years anyway, and without a serious candidate I just can’t see Udall losing.
Maine- Susan Collins, R- Susan Collins is popular and she has the all-important endorsement of Joe Lieberman. It’s hard to picture Sen. Collins going down to defeat and there are even important reasons to lament such an outcome. We do, after all, need some sane people in the Republican Party. But, Sen. Collins faces a very strong challenger in Rep. Tom Allen. Allen is a DLC Democrat, and therefore not some kind of savior in my book…but he is fairly progressive, currently clocking in at 102 on the Progressive Punch scale.
South Dakota- Tim Johnson, D- Tim Johnson is recovering from an illness and is unlikely to face a serious challenger. He’s even less likely to lose to a serious challenger. Provided his health holds out, he will win another term.
Louisiana- Mary Landrieu- D- Landrieu should be our most vulnerable incumbent, but the GOP seems incapable of finding a serious challenger. The loss of Democratic voters, post-Katrina, is worrisome. But Sen. Landrieu is looking increasingly safe.
Minnesota- Norm Coleman, R- Coleman owes his Senate seat to the fluke crash of Paul Wellstone’s plane and the expert exploitation of his funeral by right-wing media outlets to arouse a backlash against stand-in Walter Mondale. Coleman never should have had this seat in the first place and he has done little to retain it. Coleman is a formidable candidate, but it is not clear that he will be able to hold this seat in a Presidential election year. Comedian Al Franken, Attorney Mark Ciresi, and Nobel Laureate and Duke University School of Medicine professor Dr. Peter Agre are all vying to take him on.
Oregon- Gordon Smith, R- Any Republican running statewide in Oregon is going to be vulnerable in 2008. Sen. Smith is lucky that Reps. DeFazio and Blumenauer have declined to challenge him. State Senator, physician, and Vietnam veteran Alan Bates is thinking of running. Oregon State Senate Majority Leader Kate Brown is also considering a challenge. She might be our best chance to add a woman to the Senate.
New Hampshire- John Sununu, R- Granite Staters threw out both of their Republican representatives in 2006. They voted for Kerry in 2004. New Hampshire has long been the Republican holdout in New England, but things seem to be moving blue here now even faster than they are in Maine. Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, activist (and Liebercrat) Katrina Swett, Professor/former astronaut Jay Buckey, and former Governor Jeanne Shaheen are all possibly challengers in this race. Sununu will not have an easy time getting reelected.
Tennessee- Lamar Alexander, R- Sen. Alexander has not raised a lot of money, has not accomplished jack-shit in the Senate, and is still in a first-term vulnerable situation. I have heard rumors that Tipper Gore might enter the race. If she does, it could be very interesting.
Georgia- Saxby Chambliss, R- Everyone wants Max Cleland to avenge himself on Chambliss, but there are no indications that this race will materialize. Some Democrats are holding out hope that Jim Butler, an attorney, might have some of that John Edwards magic. The chances are that any Democrat that can win in Georgia right now will only offer a modest improvement over the incumbent. It’s not that Chambliss is super-popular or unbeatable, but the state has trended red while the rest of the nation had been trending blue.
Mississippi- Thad Cochran, R- All eyes are on Cochran. Will he retire? If he does then it is a likely a match-up between Democratic Attorney General Mike Moore and Republican Chip Pickering. That figures to be a slightly right leaning toss-up.
Texas- John Cornyn, R- Cornyn is one of the most unpopular senators facing re-election. The challenge for the Democrats is to find a viable threat. If they do, this seat could change hands.
As Stu Rotherberg says:
The names being floated include Rep. Nick Lampson, who was elected in 2006 when Republican Tom DeLay resigned his seat late in the election cycle and Republicans were unable to put another name on the ballot. Lampson is mentioned primarily because few insiders believe that he will be able to hold the very Republican seat in next year’s Congressional elections.
Houston state Rep. Rick Noriega and San Antonio trial lawyer Mikal Watts also are mentioned as possible candidates, which gives you a general idea about the Democrats’ chances of knocking off Cornyn.
Texas is a challenge, but the seat is attainable.
Idaho- Larry Craig, R- Sen Craig might retire. He might lose a primary. Former Congressman Larry LaRocco is the current Democratic challenger. The Democrats have been resurging in Idaho but this is still a long shot.
North Carolina- Elizbeth Dole, R- Here’s all you need to know:
When asked if they would vote for a Democrat or a Republican for President, North Carolina voters pick the Democrat over the Republican 47-42.
The Democrats will be competing in the presidential race in the Tarheel State. Dole is in trouble. Rep. Brad Miller is the netroots choice, but there are other possibilities.
New Mexico- Pete Domenici, R- On the one hand, Domenici is a legend in New Mexico and seems completely unbeatable. On the other hand, he is caught up in the Justice Department scandal, faces ethics inquiries, and has been behaving erratically in recent years. The biggest obstacle here seems to be finding a strong challenger.
Wyoming- Michael Enzi, R- Sen. Enzi is probably the least known member of the Senate. But the people of Wyoming have never expected their representatives to be flamboyant. Enzi enjoys a similar advantage to 2006 incumbent Nevada Senator Jim Ensign. Enzi simply hasn’t made enough enemies, and his state is solidly red. Add to this that it is a presidential election year, and Enzi should be safe. But, as Gary Trauner’s strong statewide House race in 2006 showed, nothing can be taken for granted. The other Wyoming senator, Craig Thomas, is suffering from leukemia, and so we might see both seats open up. In the end, in might be Thomas’s seat that Trauner takes over. Still… we can’t completely take our eyes off this seat.
South Carolina- Lindsey Graham, R- South Carolina has no history of voting out incumbents. Nonetheless, there have been rumblings about a primary challenge to Graham. It’s also remotely possible that Graham could be picked as a vice-presidential candidate. All in all, I’d say this seat is the safest seat that the Republicans currently hold.
Nebraska- Chuck Hagel, R- When Chuck Hagel first ran for senate in 1996, he promised to serve no more than two terms. He is also considering a third-party run for the presidency after saying that he no longer recognizes the Republican Party he joined in the Vietnam era. In addition to this, he faces a rigorous primary challenge. Even if he decides to break his promise and run for reelection, he faces potential challenges from both Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey and former Senator Bob Kerrey. This seat should be safe, but it isn’t.
Oklahoma- James Inhofe, R- Inhofe is certifiably insane and probably somewhat of an embarrassment even to Oklahomans. But he will remain invulnerable unless the Democrats can recruit a serious challenger, or Inhofe retires. Our best bet right now? Andy Rice.
Kentucky- Mitch McConnell, R- As Minority Leader he should be able to raise more money than God. But polling shows that he is vulnerable.
Kansas- Pat Roberts, R- Roberts is old. But we have not identified a strong challenger.
Alabama- Jeff Sessions, R- Artur Davis might challenge him, but Sessions seems ensconsed.
Alaska- Ted Stevens, R- Stevens’ family is embroiled in scandal and he is in his mid-80’s. The right challenger should be able to pull off a victory. And Stevens seems to be entertaining retirement.
Virginia- John Warner, R- Warner raised no money in the first quarter and is definitely considering retirement. If he retires this is Mark Warner’s seat for the taking.
In other words, there are only a few safe seats for the Republicans. They could be virtually wiped off the map.
