As the democratic leadership and BushCo™ continue to argue and posture over the minutiae of the supplemental funding bill, and the inclusion of benchmarks, with aWol issuing yet another veto threat, unless he gets his way, the death toll in Iraq continues to rise, and the occupation goes on.

A serious discussion of the realities of the situation, or of the need to reject the current strategy and find a new way forward in cooperation with other countries in the region, is nowhere to be found.

The overt purpose of this charade, it seems, to be nothing more than re-arranging the deck chairs on the titanic, with more than adequate complicity for both sides of the aisle to share.

To this observer, there appears to be a tacit agreement, among all parties, to ignore the larger issues, and instead, play rhetorical chess, in order to avoid addressing the root of the policies, or lack thereof, that brought us to this point, and to score political points in preparation for the upcoming campaigns and elections at the expense of more lives, limbs, and treasure.

There are few, if any, on either side of the political spectrum, that are conscientious enough, or strong enough in their beliefs, to challenge the core issues. and it is not a pretty sight.

A new Briefing Paper, published yesterday by Chatham House, a UK organization concentrating on the analysis of international issues, presents a compelling argument to the fact that the existing strategy has failed, and it’s now necessary to seek other approaches.

more on the flip…

Accepting Realities in Iraq

Iraq: fragmentation and civil wars

Press Release
Thursday 17 May 2007

There is not ‘one’ civil war, nor ‘one’ insurgency, but several civil wars and insurgencies between different communities in today’s Iraq.  Within this warring society, the Iraqi government is only one among many ‘state-like’ actors, and is largely irrelevant in terms of ordering social, economic, and political life.  It is now possible to argue that Iraq is on the verge of being a failed state which faces the distinct possibility of collapse and fragmentation.  These are some of the key findings of Accepting Realities in Iraq a new Briefing Paper written by Dr Gareth Stansfield and published today by Chatham House.

The paper also assesses Al-Qaeda activity within Iraq, especially in the major cities in the centre and north of the country. Dr Stansfield argues that, although Al-Qaeda is challenged by local groups, there is momentum behind its activity. Iraq’s neighbors too have a greater capacity to affect the situation on the ground than either the UK or the US. Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey all have different reasons for seeing the instability in Iraq continue, and each uses different methods to influence developments.

Dr Stansfield argues that with the myriad conflicts in Iraq following societal, religious and political divides and often involving state actors, the multinational forces are finding it exceptionally difficult to promote security normalization. The recent US ‘surge’ in Baghdad looks likely to have simply pushed insurgent activity to neighboring cities and cannot deliver the required political accommodation. A political solution will require Sunni Arab representatives’ participation in government, the recognition of Moqtada al-Sadr as a legitimate political partner, and a positive response to Kurdish concerns. Further, it would be a mistake to believe that the political forces in Iraq are weak and can be reorganized by the US or the international community, there must be `buy-in’ from the key Iraqi political actors.

Dr Stansfield says: `The coming year will be pivotal for Iraq. The internecine fighting and continual struggle for power threatens the nation’s very existence in its current form. An acceptance of the realities on the ground in Iraq and a fundamental rethinking of strategy by coalition powers are vital if there is to be any chance of future political stability in the country.’

Gareth Stansfield is an Associate Fellow of the Middle East Programme at Chatham House, and Associate Professor in Middle East Politics at the Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies at the University of Exeter. He has recently published Iraq: People, History, Politics (Cambridge: Polity Press, 2007), and is co-editor (with Reidar Visser) of An Iraq of its Regions: Cornerstone of a Federal Democracy? (London and New York: Hurst & Co. and Columbia University Press, forthcoming, September 2007).

Chatham House Press Release/Home

CompleteText: pdf

l think that he over emphasizes al-qaeda’s role and influence in the ongoing violence, however, and that, left without the occupation forces as targets, that they would become the default target of many of the various other factions, but it’s a minor quibble.  However, his conclusions are valid in many respects, especially regarding the ongoing attempts to impose a western vision of what an middle eastern democracy, or more broadly, government, should look like, and the potential catastrophic consequences of continuing on this path.

His analysis proves the point once again, that reality is something that BushCo™ ignores, and the american people, with a few exceptions, never get to hear about.

Denial ain’t just a river in Egypt.
Mark Twain

Recommended Reading

lTMF’sA