Some calculations based on the 2008 polls published thus far (from RCP) are below the fold.
Keywords: 2008 elections, Polls, President
Crossposted at Daily Kos.
A) Polls that asked both the “with Gore” and “without Gore” questions:
1.
With Gore:
Clinton: 35%
Obama: 20
Gore: 13
Edwards: 13
Richardson: 4Clinton-Obama Margin: 15
Without Gore (with shifts in parentheses):
Clinton: 39% (+4)
Obama: 23 (+3)
Edwards: 15 (+2)
Richardson: 4 (0)Clinton-Obama Margin: 16
Interesting “without Clinton” results:
Obama: 34 (+14)
Gore: 23 (+10)
Edwards: 16 (+3)
Richardson: 5 (+1)
(which shows that Obama and Gore have the best capacity to pull support from Hillary)2.
With Gore:
Clinton: 35%
Obama: 24
Gore: 10
Edwards: 11
Richardson: 2Clinton-Obama Margin: 11
Without Gore (with shifts in parentheses):
Clinton: 40% (+5)
Obama: 25 (+1)
Edwards: 13 (+2)
Richardson: 2 (0)Clinton-Obama Margin: 15
3.
CNN/OR 5/4-6
With Gore:Clinton: 38%
Obama: 24
Gore: 12
Edwards: 12
Richardson: 5Clinton-Obama Margin: 14
Without Gore (with shifts in parentheses):
Clinton: 41% (+3)
Obama: 27 (+3)
Edwards: 14 (+2)
Richardson: 6 (+1)Clinton-Obama Margin: 14
4.
With Gore:
Clinton: 38%
Obama: 23
Gore: 14
Edwards: 12
Richardson: 2Clinton-Obama Margin: 15
Without Gore (with shifts in parentheses):
Clinton: 45% (+7)
Obama: 27 (+4)
Edwards: 14 (+2)
Richardson: 3 (+1)Clinton-Obama Margin: 18
Averages:
With Gore:
Clinton: 36.5%
Obama: 22.75
Gore: 12.25
Edwards: 12
Richardson: 3.25Clinton-Obama Margin: 13.75
Also, Obama+Gore = 35%Without Gore (with shifts in parentheses):
Clinton: 41.25% (+4.75)
Obama: 25.5 (+2.75)
Edwards: 14 (+2)
Richardson: 3.75 (+0.5)Clinton-Obama Margin: 14.25
B. Polls that asked or reported only the “without Gore” question:
1.
Clinton: 39%
Obama: 22
Edwards: 19
Richardson: 2Clinton-Obama Margin: 17
2.
Clinton: 35%
Obama: 33
Edwards: 14
Richardson: 3Clinton-Obama Margin: 2
Average:
Clinton: 37%
Obama: 27.5
Edwards: 16.5
Richardson: 2.5Clinton-Obama Margin: 9.5
C. Poll that asked or reported only “with Gore” question:
With Gore:
Clinton: 35%
Obama: 26
Gore: 16
Edwards: 12
Richardson: 2Clinton-Obama Margin: 9
One notes that Obama’s and Gore’s number in this last poll add up to 42, 7 points more than Clinton.