Stuart Rothenberg makes a point that I have been making in today’s Roll Call. The President cannot leave or substantially withdraw troops from Iraq. I put a different emphasis on it. The way I usually describe the situation is: no nation has ever let their leader launch a war of choice, lose that war, and then stick around to oversee the aftermath (or orderly withdrawal). It doesn’t make any sense to do that. Do you really trust Bush/Cheney to organize and conduct an orderly withdrawal? If so, why?
Rothenberg thinks less about the good of the country, the safety of our troops, and the complicated diplomacy that would be required than he does about Bush’s own psychological needs. But it leads to the same place.
Bush’s chances of having his reputation improve years or even decades after he leaves office almost certainly depends on what ultimately happens in Iraq…
…Given that, and given the way Bush now views the situation in Iraq and the costs of failure, he cannot possibly agree to remove U.S. forces as quickly as his critics would like. Withdrawal would guarantee “defeat,” as the president sees it, thereby establishing the error of his policy and the failure of his administration.
If the president did what his critics (as well as some of his friends within the GOP) want, his reputation would be permanently set. His only legacy would be the mess in Iraq and the United States’ failures. Even if things improved in the region 10 years down the road, Bush would get no credit for it. And let’s be entirely clear: Bush wouldn’t get any credit for pulling troops out at this point. Nobody really thinks the president’s overall reputation would improve after being forced, kicking and screaming, to withdraw U.S. combat troops from Iraq, do they?
In answer to the last question, the President actually would improve his overall reputation by withdrawing. But the improvement would be barely perceptible and wouldn’t emerge until much later. In the short-term, it would indeed cement his entire administration as a catastrophic failure. His best bet for posterity is to effectively resign an noon tomorrow since he can’t follow LBJ’s example and get points for not running again for president.
With America’s sons in the fields far away, with America’s future under challenge right here at home, with our hopes and the world’s hopes for peace in the balance every day, I do not believe that I should devote an hour or a day of my time to any personal partisan causes or to any duties other than the awesome duties of this office–the Presidency of your country.
Accordingly, I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your President.
There’s no question that LBJ thereby improved his reputation in the history books. And if Bush cannot exactly replicate that performance, he can come close. Rothenberg hints at this, but in a much different way.
The only way to influence [Bush’s Iraq] policy is to demonstrate to Bush that his long-term goal of a peaceful, stable and free Iraq – which would be good both for the Middle East and for his historical reputation – can be achieved only if Republicans hold onto the White House, and that continued Republican control of the White House is impossible, absolutely impossible, without some withdrawal of U.S. forces within the next few months.
Actually, I want to go a step further here and point out that a ‘peaceful, stable, and free Iraq’ is impossible, absolutely impossible, under Bush and Cheney’s leadership and that Bush’s best option is to hand off the war to another Republican now, rather than wait until 2009 (this is especially true because it is so unlikely that a Republican will win in 2008). So, the best way to influence policy is to convince Bush and Cheney to step down. This is in the interests of all Republicans and I have been saying that from the moment they decided to ignore the recommendations of the Baker-Hamilton report.
Bush’s legacy is lost. There is no chance that he will go down as anything but our worst president since Buchanan. But, he doesn’t have to make things worse. No matter how bad things get, there is always the best thing you can do now. Convincing Bush and Cheney to resign is our best option. It’s also their best option.