I’ve been analyzing the 33 Senate seats that are up in 2008. To do this, I looked at three main variables.
1. How popular is the incumbent Senator (even if they are retiring, or may retire). This is reflected in their net approval rating in the latest Survey USA polls.
2. What was Bush or Kerry’s net margin of victory in their state in the 2004 election?
3. How much cash did they have on hand after the last election. I broke this down into percentiles. The top ten percent got 9 points, the bottom ten percent got 1 point.
I then looked at the results two ways. Only Wayne Allard has confirmed that he is retiring, but several others are considering retirement. I looked at the raw results, and then I did it again after deducting 20 points for Senators that I think might not run for reelection. To give you an example, here is how it broke down for Frank Lautenberg:
Net Approval: 39%-45%. Minus 6 points.
New Jersey 2004: Kerry 53%-Bush 46%. Plus seven points.
Cash on Hand: Ranks 26th in Senate, or 70% percentile. Plus seven points.
It all adds up 8 points. That put Lautenberg in a tie with John Sununu for the fourth most vulnerable incumbent. Under this analysis, he’s also the most vulnerable Democrat.
I found a few other interesting things. Many people think we can win Susan Collin’s seat in Maine. This analysis says ‘fat chance’. She came in as less vulnerable than Saxby Chambliss and tied with Joe Biden. That’s because she enjoys a 50 point net popularity (73%-23%).
On a more positive note, if Pete Domenici retires his seat becomes the second most vulnerable after Colorado. That’s because the state was a total toss-up in 2004.
I did this analysis without taking into account the strength of any proposed opponents. I just wanted to find a way to weigh the dynamics of the race from the point of view of the incumbent, their state, and the fact that 2008 is a presidential election year.
I put the full results or the 21 Republican seats under the fold.
Colorado
Republican: Wayne Allard (retiring)
Democrat: Mark UdallNet positive rating:1, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:5, COH Points: NA Total Points:6, Retiring:-20, Total Points:-14
New Mexico
Republican: Pete Domenici (considering retirement)
Democrats: John Kelly, Martin Chavez, Jim Hannon, some others.Net positive rating:16, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:0, COH Points:3, Total Points:19, Retirement Alert: -20, Total Points:-1
New Hampshire
Republican: John Sununu
Democrats: Steve Marchard, Jim Buckey, Katrina Swett, Jeanne Shaheen.Net positive rating:3 Net Positive for Bush in 2004:-1, COH Points:6, Total Points:8
Oregon
Republican: Gordon Smith
Democrat: Steve Novick, Alan Bates, Ty Pettit, others.Net positive rating:10, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:-4, COH Points:8, Total Points:14
Minnesota
Republican: Norm Coleman
Democrat: Al Franken, Mike Ciresi, others.Net positive rating:12, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:-3, COH Points:7, Total Points:16
Virginia
Republican: John Warner (considering retirement)
Democrat: Mark WarnerNet positive rating:22, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:9, COH Points:6, Total Points:37, Retirment Alert=-20, Total Points:17
North Carolina
Republican: Elizabeth Dole
Democrats: Brad Miller, Kay Hagen, Roy Cooper, othersNet positive rating:12, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:12, COH Points:3, Total Points:27
Tennessee
Republican: Lamar Alexander
Democrats: no confirmed candidates.Net positive rating:17, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:14, COH Points:3, Total Points:34
Texas
Republican: John Cornyn
Democrats: Rick Noriega, Barbara Ann Radnofsky, Nick Lampson, others.Net positive rating:3, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:23, COH Points:9, Total Points: 35
Mississippi
Republican: Thad Cochran (considering retirement)
Democrats: Mike MooreNet positive rating:36, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:19, COH Points:4, Total Points:59, Retirement Alert:-20, Total Points:39
Nebraska
Republican: Chuck Hagel (considering retirement)
Democrats: Bob Kerrey, Mike FaheyNet positive rating:25, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:33, COH Points:2, Total Points:60, Retirement Alert=-20, Total Points:40
Oklahoma
Republican: Jim Inhofe
Democrat: Andrew RiceNet positive rating:5, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:31, COH Points:5, Total Points:41
Kansas
Republican: Pat Roberts
Democrats: no confirmed candidatesNet positive rating:9, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:26, COH Points:6, Total Points:41
Kentucky
Republican: Mitch McConnell
Democrat: Charlie OwenNet positive rating:13, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:20, COH Points:8, Total Points:41
Georgia
Republican: Saxby Chambliss
Democrats: Vernon A. Jones, others.Net positive rating:16, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:17, COH Points:8, Total Points:41
Maine
Republican: Susan Collins
Democrat: Tom AllenNet positive rating:50, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:-9, COH Points:5, Total Points: 46
South Carolina
Republican: Lindsey Graham
Democrats: no confirmed candidates.Net positive rating:22, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:17, COH Points:8, Total Points:47
Idaho
Republican: Larry Craig (considering retirement)
Democrat: Larry LaRoccoNet positive rating:29, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:38, COH Points:3, Total Points:70, Retirement Alert=-20, Total Points:50
Alabama
Republican: Jeff Sessions
Democrats: Ron Sparks, Vivian FiguresNet positive rating:18, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:26, COH Points:7, Total Points:51
Alaska
Republican: Ted Stevens (considering retirement)
Democrat: Mark BegichNet positive rating:28, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:26,COH Points:4, Total Points:58
Wyoming
Republican: Mike Enzi
Democrat: No confirmed candidatesNet positive rating:39, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:39, COH Points:3, Total Points:81
Here are the ratings by state (including Dems):
Colorado -14
New Mexico -1
Louisiana 3
New Hampshire 8
New Jersey 8
Oregon 14
Arkansas 15
Minnesota 16
Virginia 17
Iowa 19
West Virginia 24
Michigan 25
North Carolina 27
South Dakota 28
Massachusetts 28
Illinois 33
Tennessee 34
Texas 35
Montana 37
Mississippi 39
Nebraska 40
Oklahoma 41
Kansas 41
Kentucky 41
Georgia 41
Maine 46
Delaware 46
South Carolina 47
Idaho 50
Alabama 51
Rhode Island 56
Alaska 58
Wyoming 81
Booman…
Any way to factor in it being a presidential year in your rankings? I’m thinking maybe a number of embarrassed Repub’s will stay home and a very large number of the “against the unsuccessful Iraqui War” people in the public will go to the polls to express their opinion that our leadership should change.
I measure it by looking at Bush’s margin of victory (or defeat) in their state. That’s a presidential year measure, whereas all the Senators were elected in 2002, a midterm year.
Can I reduce the points given for “margin of victory” in 2004 by the approval ratings losses in 2007?
I think you can.
One thing I noticed:
One a small portion of the approval ratings for Senators come from recent late April poll. The majority of them come from a late November poll, not long after the election, or reelection of these senators.
But all the Republicans that have April numbers are down from where they were in November. Not so for the Democrats.
So, one conclusion I draw is that many of the Republicans have too high a rating in job approval, but the Dems are about right. I think you can assume that the Republicans are looking better in my rankings, relative to the Dems, than they should.
is that you don’t take into account the myriad other factors in the campaigns. For instance, both Tom Allen and Mike Moore are really, really popular, and could easily outpace their also-popular opponents.
that was exactly what I wanted to do. I wanted to look at the races without regard for the challenger to see what our chances are in a generic sense.
This shows that Tom Allen is a longshot, despite his popularity. That would be true of Mike Moore, too.
I agree with the call here on Maine. Of course we should run someone, but Collins is very popular up there. I think that small state Senators in general are more popular unless they really screw things up. Their relationship to their voters is more personal.
Besides in 2009, Bush and Rove will be gone, and hopefully we will have a Democratic President along with the Democratic congress. For the sake of our country we will want some moderate Rockefeller Republicans left to have some influence over their caucus.