Rating the 2008 Senate Races

I’ve been analyzing the 33 Senate seats that are up in 2008. To do this, I looked at three main variables.

1. How popular is the incumbent Senator (even if they are retiring, or may retire). This is reflected in their net approval rating in the latest Survey USA polls.
2. What was Bush or Kerry’s net margin of victory in their state in the 2004 election?
3. How much cash did they have on hand after the last election. I broke this down into percentiles. The top ten percent got 9 points, the bottom ten percent got 1 point.

I then looked at the results two ways. Only Wayne Allard has confirmed that he is retiring, but several others are considering retirement. I looked at the raw results, and then I did it again after deducting 20 points for Senators that I think might not run for reelection. To give you an example, here is how it broke down for Frank Lautenberg:

Net Approval: 39%-45%. Minus 6 points.
New Jersey 2004: Kerry 53%-Bush 46%. Plus seven points.
Cash on Hand: Ranks 26th in Senate, or 70% percentile. Plus seven points.

It all adds up 8 points. That put Lautenberg in a tie with John Sununu for the fourth most vulnerable incumbent. Under this analysis, he’s also the most vulnerable Democrat.

I found a few other interesting things. Many people think we can win Susan Collin’s seat in Maine. This analysis says ‘fat chance’. She came in as less vulnerable than Saxby Chambliss and tied with Joe Biden. That’s because she enjoys a 50 point net popularity (73%-23%).

On a more positive note, if Pete Domenici retires his seat becomes the second most vulnerable after Colorado. That’s because the state was a total toss-up in 2004.

I did this analysis without taking into account the strength of any proposed opponents. I just wanted to find a way to weigh the dynamics of the race from the point of view of the incumbent, their state, and the fact that 2008 is a presidential election year.

I put the full results or the 21 Republican seats under the fold.

Colorado

Republican: Wayne Allard (retiring)
Democrat: Mark Udall

Net positive rating:1, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:5, COH Points: NA Total Points:6, Retiring:-20, Total Points:-14

New Mexico

Republican: Pete Domenici (considering retirement)
Democrats: John Kelly, Martin Chavez, Jim Hannon, some others.

Net positive rating:16, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:0, COH Points:3, Total Points:19, Retirement Alert: -20, Total Points:-1

New Hampshire

Republican: John Sununu
Democrats: Steve Marchard, Jim Buckey, Katrina Swett, Jeanne Shaheen.

Net positive rating:3 Net Positive for Bush in 2004:-1, COH Points:6, Total Points:8

Oregon

Republican: Gordon Smith
Democrat: Steve Novick, Alan Bates, Ty Pettit, others.

Net positive rating:10, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:-4, COH Points:8, Total Points:14

Minnesota

Republican: Norm Coleman
Democrat: Al Franken, Mike Ciresi, others.

Net positive rating:12, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:-3, COH Points:7, Total Points:16

Virginia

Republican: John Warner (considering retirement)
Democrat: Mark Warner

Net positive rating:22, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:9, COH Points:6, Total Points:37, Retirment Alert=-20, Total Points:17

North Carolina

Republican: Elizabeth Dole
Democrats: Brad Miller, Kay Hagen, Roy Cooper, others

Net positive rating:12, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:12, COH Points:3, Total Points:27

Tennessee

Republican: Lamar Alexander
Democrats: no confirmed candidates.

Net positive rating:17, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:14, COH Points:3, Total Points:34

Texas

Republican: John Cornyn
Democrats: Rick Noriega, Barbara Ann Radnofsky, Nick Lampson, others.

Net positive rating:3, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:23, COH Points:9, Total Points: 35

Mississippi

Republican: Thad Cochran (considering retirement)
Democrats: Mike Moore

Net positive rating:36, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:19, COH Points:4, Total Points:59, Retirement Alert:-20, Total Points:39

Nebraska

Republican: Chuck Hagel (considering retirement)
Democrats: Bob Kerrey, Mike Fahey

Net positive rating:25, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:33, COH Points:2, Total Points:60, Retirement Alert=-20, Total Points:40

Oklahoma

Republican: Jim Inhofe
Democrat: Andrew Rice

Net positive rating:5, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:31, COH Points:5, Total Points:41

Kansas

Republican: Pat Roberts
Democrats: no confirmed candidates

Net positive rating:9, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:26, COH Points:6, Total Points:41

Kentucky

Republican: Mitch McConnell
Democrat: Charlie Owen

Net positive rating:13, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:20, COH Points:8, Total Points:41

Georgia

Republican: Saxby Chambliss
Democrats: Vernon A. Jones, others.

Net positive rating:16, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:17, COH Points:8, Total Points:41

Maine

Republican: Susan Collins
Democrat: Tom Allen

Net positive rating:50, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:-9, COH Points:5, Total Points: 46

South Carolina

Republican: Lindsey Graham
Democrats: no confirmed candidates.

Net positive rating:22, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:17, COH Points:8, Total Points:47

Idaho

Republican: Larry Craig (considering retirement)
Democrat: Larry LaRocco

Net positive rating:29, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:38, COH Points:3, Total Points:70, Retirement Alert=-20, Total Points:50

Alabama

Republican: Jeff Sessions
Democrats: Ron Sparks, Vivian Figures

Net positive rating:18, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:26, COH Points:7, Total Points:51

Alaska

Republican: Ted Stevens (considering retirement)
Democrat: Mark Begich

Net positive rating:28, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:26,COH Points:4, Total Points:58

Wyoming

Republican: Mike Enzi
Democrat: No confirmed candidates

Net positive rating:39, Net Positive for Bush in 2004:39, COH Points:3, Total Points:81

Here are the ratings by state (including Dems):

Colorado -14
New Mexico -1
Louisiana 3
New Hampshire 8
New Jersey 8
Oregon 14
Arkansas 15
Minnesota 16
Virginia 17
Iowa 19
West Virginia 24
Michigan 25
North Carolina 27
South Dakota 28
Massachusetts 28
Illinois 33
Tennessee 34
Texas 35
Montana 37
Mississippi 39
Nebraska 40
Oklahoma 41
Kansas 41
Kentucky 41
Georgia 41
Maine 46
Delaware 46
South Carolina 47
Idaho 50
Alabama 51
Rhode Island 56
Alaska 58
Wyoming 81