Update [2007-7-16 16:5:54 by Steven D]: Corrections to this story have been made as indicated below by the text that has been stricken out and new text added, to make clear that UN inspectors have not been allowed back into Iran, they’ve been there all along. Thanks to hass in the comments for pointing out my errors.
Iran has permitted UN nuclear inspectors back into the country to inspect its nuclear facilities, including its heavy water reactor at Arak, in addition to the UN’s ongoing inspection of the uranium enrichment facility at Natanz and other Iranian nuclear sites.
Furthermore, the unfounded claim that Iran was behind the kidnapping and brutal slaying of five Americans, a story the Pentagon pushed as hard as it could, has proven to be completely false. And a recent study shows that most of the “foreign fighters” in Iraq come from Saudi Arabia, our purported ally in the War on Terror, with few, if any, coming from Iran.
No matter. Vice President Darth Cheney has the ear of the Decider-in-chief once again, so all options are back on the table, including the option to unleash hell on Iran: (hat tip to Raw Story)
The balance in the internal White House debate over Iran has shifted back in favour of military action before President George Bush leaves office in 18 months, the Guardian has learned.
The shift follows an internal review involving the White House, the Pentagon and the state department over the last month. Although the Bush administration is in deep trouble over Iraq, it remains focused on Iran. A well-placed source in Washington said: “Bush is not going to leave office with Iran still in limbo.”
What a surprise, eh? So much for the supposed calmer, more rational approach focused on diplomacy allegedly advocated by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates. When push comes to shove, it seems Bush prefers his follow his gut, and we all know the identity of the intestinal parasite residing in that foul place:
The vice-president, Dick Cheney, has long favoured upping the threat of military action against Iran. He is being resisted by the secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, and the defence secretary, Robert Gates. […]
Last year Mr Bush came down in favour of Ms Rice, who along with Britain, France and Germany has been putting a diplomatic squeeze on Iran. But at a meeting of the White House, Pentagon and state department last month, Mr Cheney expressed frustration at the lack of progress and Mr Bush sided with him. “The balance has tilted. There is cause for concern,” the source said this week. […]
“Cheney has limited capital left, but if he wanted to use all his capital on this one issue, he could still have an impact,” said Patrick Cronin, the director of studies at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
The Washington source said Mr Bush and Mr Cheney did not trust any potential successors in the White House, Republican or Democratic, to deal with Iran decisively. They are also reluctant for Israel to carry out any strikes because the US would get the blame in the region anyway.
“The red line is not in Iran. The red line is in Israel. If Israel is adamant it will attack, the US will have to take decisive action,” Mr Cronin said. “The choices are: tell Israel no, let Israel do the job, or do the job yourself.”
Well, God forbid we just tell Israel no. It seems as if Cheney has convinced Bush that we must attack Iran because
a) No future President will have Bush’s guts;
b) Israel wants to do it if we don’t; and
c) We just can’t say no to more war.
Unless I missed something, that sounds like the deeply serious analysis that serious people in serious positions of power have processed with their big, super-sized serious brains. Plus, they know they’ll always have Joe Lieberman and the Cable News Nets to lead the cheers for them. Not too mention that the Beltway Punditocracy’s Senior Class President, David Broder, who will no doubt insist, in the interests of national unity and the spirit of bi-partisanship (of course), that we support our President in his war against the evil mullahs of Iran, even if Our Dear Leader is forced to use “tactical” nukes to take out those allegedly secret underground Iranian nuclear sites.
This puts a whole new spin on the 97-0 Senate vote the other day approving the Lieberman amendment on Iran, now doesn’ it. Coupled with Nancy Pelosi’s refusal to include a provision requiring Bush to seek authorization from Congress before attacking Iran in the last defense supplemental spending bill, and the Democrats’ failure to reign in this administration from any further foreign policy “mistakes” (i.e., a preventive war against Iran, i.e., a disaster of monumental proportions) is all too apparent. Bush can now claim that both the Senate and the House have acquiesced in granting him whatever authority he needs to deal with Iran militarily.
So, once more our fate and the fate of the world is firmly in the hands of Dick “shoot first and duck questions later” Cheney and his fellow travelers among American neoconservatives, AICPAC and the far right hardliners in Israel. And if that doesn’t give you pause for concern, then you must be one of the 26 percenters who still worship at the altar of Bush. For everyone else, all I can say is “God help us” because clearly our Democratic leaders in Congress won’t.
We know that the government has contracted out for a disinformation campaign against Iran. We also know that the madman theory is part of making Rice’s efforts seem palatable. So, it’s impossible to give credence to anything we read about Iran.
Actually I find this a credible report. First, the idea that Bush didn’t want to leave office without dealing with Iran has been known for some time thanks to Seymour Hersh’s reporting. Second, this is the Guardian, and although one of its reporters has been used to provide disinformation about Iran, this reporter isn’t the one who was responsible for those stories. Third, we know that there are a number of individuals in the government and the Pentagon, including Admiral Fallon , the current head of CENTCOM, who are doing their damnedest to prevent the “crazies” from attacking Iran. This sounds like a leak from one of those people. Fourth, Iran has been engaging in discussions with the Americans, and the EU and recently allowed the UN inspectors back in (as pointed out above). All this happened before this story came out.
Finally, the disinformation stories about Iran have primarily been aimed at the US public and they have not been subtle. Indeed, if this is part of a disinformation campaign by the Bush adminsitration, its by far the most elaborate and well conceived disinformation that they have put out in the entire time they have been in office. They tend to go for the big, outrageous lie that plays into the prejudices of ignorant and uninformed people. So, no, I don’t buy that this is disinformation. Iran was already moving toward further negotiations with the EU and the UN. This story would do nothing to improve Rice’s diplomatic efforts. On the contrary, it would sabotage them.
Now, in my view, the only way this could be disinformation would be if it was being put out by Cheney’s office to make Rice’s diplomatic efforts fail, and to lend support to the hardliners inside Iran (who for their own reasons may desire a confrontation with the Great Satan America). If that is the case (and I don’t believe that to be true) it’s still a dangerous story, because it helps Cheney in his ultimate goal of engineering a military confrontation with Iran. So either its true, which is bad news for everyone concerned, obviously, or its an elaborate ploy by Cheney and his allies (AICPAC, e.g.) to destroy the diplomatic efforts of the UN, the EU and Rice. The simplest explanation is usually the best, but even the complicated one is very bad news.
I agree with your points, but I think there are other points, specifically, madman components.
In order for Rice to have maximum credibility and effectiveness the Iranians have to get the idea that she is in a battle with Cheney and needs support, or progress, in order to win that battle.
Many subtle and not so subtle pieces are aimed at fostering this narrative.
I understand your theory, but I just don’t think Cheney and Rice are involved in any kind of working relationship right now. I see Rice as aligned with Gates and the Joint Chiefs (especially the Army and MC chiefs) who have been telling Bush that a Iranian war is simply not feasible from a political, strategic or logistical standpoint. Cheney, of course, represents the remaining bastion of hard core neoconservatives in the administration. The last thing he would do would be to agree to work with Rice, as all indications have been that he has opposed her diplomatic efforts vis-a-vis Iran for some time.
Well…part of this is figuring out what Sy Hersh has been up to over the last year and a half: independent, working for anti-Cheney clique, working for Powell/Rice clique…or some combo.
Another part is recognizing that RICE and the state dept. can be pushing the Cheney is dangerous line to get the Iranians to budge, even absent any consent by Cheney.
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Don’t discount Rice’s deputy … right Negroponte.
Iran is the world's top state sponsorof terrorism, says Mr Negroponte
Seymour Hersh: Negroponte-Iran Contra–Funds-al Qaeda…Oh my!
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."The Madman President tactic is no theory – it was the stated neocon prescription for American leadership in the pre-9/11.
I suppose that Cheney’s shooting the old geezer in the face was also part of the very clever Bushie psy-ops campaign.
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As always an excellent piece, thank you Steven D, however Raw Story was decisively beaten by idredit!
H/T Raw Story
Paper: Cheney pushes for military action in Iran
Published: Monday July 16, 2007
H/T well deserved by idredit @ BooMan Tribune – naturally!
UPDATE: This from The Guardian, UK, July 16,2007
It is reported that Rice and Gates lost the internal debate. Cheney pushes Bush to act on Iran
by idredit on Sun Jul 15th, 2007 at 04:35:03 PM PST
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."Well then, my hat’s off to idredit as well!
One minor corrections, StevenD:
Iran didn’t allow inspectors “back into the country” – IAEA inspectors have been visiting the country quite regularly and visit sites such as Iran’s enrichment program at Natanz quite often. To say that they’ve been allowed “back into the country” suggest that they were barred from entering Iran, which is not true.
Rather, what Iran has done is to permit the inspectors to visit the Arak reactor site, which is still under construction. Iran is under no legal obligation to allow inspections of sites that are still under construction, but apparently theyr’e trying to be extra cooperative with the IAEA. Incidentally, once the reactor becomes operational, it will be monitored by the IAEA.
Oh, and I am still not quite clear how starting a war with Iran in the next 18 months won’t result in Bush leaving the matter “in limbo” – in fact, should such a war break out, matters will be in much greater limbo!
Point taken. Correction has been made above.
Thanks.
No thank you!
PLEASE….PLEASE…..READ THIS:
http://www.counterpunch.com/roberts07162007.html
July 16, 2007
Impeach Now
Or Face the End of Constitutional Democracy
By PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS
Unless Congress immediately impeaches Bush and Cheney, a year from now the US could be a dictatorial police state at war with Iran.
Bush has put in place all the necessary measures for dictatorship in the form of “executive orders” that are triggered whenever Bush declares a national emergency. Recent statements by Homeland Security Chief Michael Chertoff, former Republican senator Rick Santorum and others suggest that Americans might expect a series of staged, or false flag, “terrorist” events in the near future.
Many attentive people believe that the reason the Bush administration will not bow to expert advice and public opinion and begin withdrawing US troops from Iraq is that the administration intends to rescue its unpopular position with false flag operations that can be used to expand the war to Iran.
Too much is going wrong for the Bush administration: the failure of its Middle East wars, Republican senators jumping ship, Turkish troops massed on northern Iraq’s border poised for an invasion to deal with Kurds, and a majority of Americans favoring the impeachment of Cheney and a near-majority favoring Bush’s impeachment. The Bush administration desperately needs dramatic events to scare the American people and the Congress back in line with the militarist-police state that Bush and Cheney have fostered.
William Norman Grigg recently wrote that the GOP is “praying for a terrorist strike” to save the party from electoral wipeout in 2008.
Chertoff, Cheney, the neocon nazis, and Mossad would have no qualms about saving the bacon for the Republicans, who have enabled Bush to start two unjustified wars, with Iran waiting in the wings to be attacked in a third war.
The Bush administration has tried unsuccessfully to resurrect the terrorist fear factor by infiltrating some blowhard groups and encouraging them to talk about staging “terrorist” events. The talk, encouraged by federal agents, resulted in “terrorist” arrests hyped by the media, but even the captive media was unable to scare people with such transparent sting operations.
If the Bush administration wants to continue its wars in the Middle East and to entrench the “unitary executive” at home, it will have to conduct some false flag operations that will both frighten and anger the American people and make them accept Bush’s declaration of “national emergency” and the return of the draft. Alternatively, the administration could simply allow any real terrorist plot to proceed without hindrance.
A series of staged or permitted attacks would be spun by the captive media as a vindication of the neoconsevatives’ Islamophobic policy, the intention of which is to destroy all Middle Eastern governments that are not American puppet states. Success would give the US control over oil, but the main purpose is to eliminate any resistance to Israel’s complete absorption of Palestine into Greater Israel.
Think about it. If another 9/11-type “security failure” were not in the works, why would Homeland Security czar Chertoff go to the trouble of convincing the Chicago Tribune that Americans have become complacent about terrorist threats and that he has “a gut feeling” that America will soon be hit hard?
Why would Republican warmonger Rick Santorum say on the Hugh Hewitt radio show that “between now and November, a lot of things are going to happen, and I believe that by this time next year, the American public’s (sic) going to have a very different view of this war.”
Throughout its existence the US government has staged incidents that the government then used in behalf of purposes that it could not otherwise have pursued. According to a number of writers, false flag operations have been routinely used by the Israeli state. During the Czarist era in Russia, the secret police would set off bombs in order to arrest those the secret police regarded as troublesome. Hitler was a dramatic orchestrator of false flag operations. False flag operations are a commonplace tool of governments.
Ask yourself: Would a government that has lied us into two wars and is working to lie us into an attack on Iran shrink from staging “terrorist” attacks in order to remove opposition to its agenda?
Only a diehard minority believes in the honesty and integrity of the Bush-Cheney administration and in the truthfulness of the corporate media.
Hitler, who never achieved majority support in a German election, used the Reichstag fire to fan hysteria and push through the Enabling Act, which made him dictator. Determined tyrants never require majority support in order to overthrow constitutional orders.
The American constitutional system is near to being overthrown. Are coming “terrorist” events of which Chertoff warns and Santorum promises the means for overthrowing our constitutional democracy?
Isn’t summer vacation time supposed to start again in Crawford in about two weeks? You know, when the imperial court heads off to the summer palace, away from the heat and press of humanity in the big city capital. They can just laze around swilling a few cold ones (of their own choice of course) talking about the big questions of the day after ruminating over those thick tomes Bush’s press secretaries will be telling us he’s been working his way through (besides “My Pet Goat”). Cheney will have a full month to work over Bush to bring him around to his way of thinking, since Cheney will have no other obligations bothering him, as compared to Condi (who seems to have an international peace conference to pull together) or Chertoff (who will be laboring over his guts) or Gates (who will determining just how the troops will be withdrawn from Iraq) or McConnell (who is worrying about just how strong and vibrant Al Qaeda has become). Just think about – a full month to persuade Bush that he’s the biggest swinging Dick on the planet.