Republican uberpollster Frank Luntz has some grim news for the Republicans in today’s Los Angeles Times. Basically, Luntz says, the Republicans have almost no chance of winning the White House in 2008.
A GOP victory is not absolutely out of the question, of course, but getting there would take a forward-looking agenda, unparalleled message discipline, a strict focus on the millions of independent voters, an innovative candidate and campaign and a lot of luck.
In other words, don’t bet on it.
Luntz spends the first part of his article laying out the grim facts. Party control of the White House has switched six times since World War Two and the GOP is in worse position than any of those unsuccessful governments. The country is intensely pessimistic and they give a Democratic president an 18% generic advantage over a Republican. That number, along with Bush’s abysmal poll numbers, has not been seen since the Watergate era.
Luntz attempts to offer some advice and some hope, but it is very thin gruel.
His prescription?
- Empathize with and embrace the fed-up nation.
Develop a message of hope.
Be authentic, lead like Reagan.
‘Articulate a culturally conservative message fused with government accountability and economic opportunity specifically tailored to voters in the industrial heartland’, and win Ohio.
For Luntz, this ‘strategy’ is uncharacteristically lacking in message specifics. And, at first glance, it appears impossible. Let’s consider what a GOP candidate would have to do to meet these requirements. To truly empathize with the ‘fed-up’ public the candidate must acknowledge the public’s extremely dim view of the Bush administration. To do so in an ‘authentic’ way they must be clear and consistent and not try to have it both ways. Their critique of the Bush administration must by unequivocal. Then they must somehow unfold this scathing critique in a hope-filled manner. Finally, they must address the economic anxiety of the heartland, and particularly Ohio. But, on what grounds?
Let’s look at Robin Toner’s piece in today’s New York Times, discussing the revival of economic populism in the Democratic Party:
The case for populism is made most powerfully by the Democrats who were elected to Congress last fall. Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, who defeated a Republican incumbent with an attack on the trade and economic policies of recent years, said he was convinced that the populists were on the rise. He noted that he carried Ohio by 12.5 percentage points two years after John Kerry, the 2004 Democratic presidential nominee, lost the state by only about 2 percentage points, and with it the presidency.
“That’s because of the economic populist message,” Mr. Brown said. “They voted minimum wage, they voted trade, they voted student loans, they voted health care and prescription drugs, over what their traditional conservative social values might suggest. And that’s the route to winning Ohio for Hillary or Barack or anybody else.”
‘Or anybody else’. That’s the problem for any Republican that wants to win in Ohio. To do so they must overcome their party’s opposition to the minimum wage hike, cheaper student loans, cheaper prescription drugs and expanded access to health care, and their unwavering support for free trade. And they must do this, according to Luntz, in an authentic way.
Let’s look at Luntz’s call to ‘articulate a culturally conservative message fused with government accountability and economic opportunity.’ Again, the candidates have to be ‘authentic’. Can Guiliani and Romney articulate an authentic pro-life position after they spent their careers as pro-choice pols? Can Fred Thompson be authentic after working as a lobbyist for pro-choice groups? No. Can Fred Thompson plausibly call for government accountability after lobbying for Scooter Libby? Can Guiliani do so after lobbying for Bernie Kerik? And how can any of them be ‘real’ and ‘authentic’ and make any kind of populist pitch for ‘economic opportunity’ in a place like Ohio?
Luntz’s conclusion is basically correct.
Without the support of the anxious working class, Ohio will also turn deep blue. And so will the United States.
The success of the Republican Party since 1980 was to eschew definition or brand. Whatever hopes, dreams and aspirations people saw in themselves were seen in the Republican Party. That’s all gone now. The Democrats didn’t win in 2006. The GOP lost. And for the party to keep the White House in 2008, it will require a Herculean effort.
Yes, it could happen. No, don’t count on it.
Given the current constitutional gridlock on Capitol Hill, the Republican contenders won’t even make a good faith effort to follow Luntz’s advice, which would be unlikely to work in any case.
